(from "It's Alright, Ma (I'm Only Bleeding)," Bringing It All Back Home)
In my last post, I deduced that the Royals would not have a lot of wriggle room in the payroll to make any free-agent signings this offseason. With three moves yesterday, they freed up a good $7 or $8 million. Shows what I know.
The first two moves were releasing Brian Bannister and Brian Anderson. Like any good Royals blogger, I'm quite fond of Banny. But it certainly made sense to cut ties with him. Part of Bannister's appeal was always the sense that he didn't really have outstanding talent (for a major leaguer, of course), but tried to use his intellect to maximize his performance. Unfortunately, he just wasn't able to sustain that and his lack of "extra" ability caught up to him. I'm sure most of us will miss Banny off the field, but we won't miss that 6.34 ERA he put up in 2010. Here's hoping he can catch on with an NL team in a good pitcher's park and have some success.
The Royals then traded David DeJesus to Oakland for pitcher Vin Mazzaro and minor-league pitcher Justin Marks.
I'm so underwhelmed by this trade. It was obvious there was a chance DeJesus would be dealt this winter; he's in the last year of his contract, turning 31 next month, and owed $6 million. Plus, he has been a solid, above-average player for the Royals and was really one of the few trading chips the Royals had at the major league level. Or so I thought.
This trade looks like the Royals basically were trying to cut salary. Mazzaro and Marks both project as middle-of-the-rotation guys. In a telling point about the Royals' 2011 rotation, Mazzaro might be the Number 2 guy, but that's more by default than anything he's done to deserve it. While he's still young and can improve, the facts are he has put up a 4.72 ERA in his career, which is a little more than a season's worth of games over two seasons. He doesn't strike out a lot of hitters and probably walks too many (138 Ks, 89 BBs in his career). So he's likely heavily dependent on his defense, which is a bad idea for any Royals pitcher.
So, yeah. Two guys who might be better than Kyle Davies. Very exciting. I understand the thought process behind this trade, although I still don't like it. My dislike is not so much about the guys the Royals got (although I would have expected a little more in return), but more about the next move the Royals will make...
I think we all know it's coming. Jeff Francoeur, Opening Day 2011 rightfielder. And 2012. And 2013. And we thought Jose Guillen was frustrating. I can't wait to get that .735 lifetime OPS in Royal blue! That's just what this lineup needs, another guy who's OBP barely cracks .300.
Of course, that's a worry for another day. It hasn't happened. Yet.
Showing posts with label David DeJesus. Show all posts
Showing posts with label David DeJesus. Show all posts
Thursday, November 11, 2010
Saturday, June 19, 2010
2012: Who Will Represent The Royals?
As you surely know by now, Kansas City will be hosting the 2012 All-Star Game. Sure, there are ill-informed people bashing the choice, but I'm excited. I'm confident KC will put on a good show and all those east coast elitists will be...well, they probably wouldn't admit being impressed, but at least satisfied. I doubt they'll die of boredom out here in flyover country, anyway.
OK, enough good old-fashioned Kansas City inferiority complex. There is too much to be excited about...2012 figures to be an interesting year for Royals fans. We should be beginning to see all that talent at Northwest Arkansas reach the majors and hopefully start to contribute. Meanwhile, with the big contracts of Jose Guillen and Gil Meche off the books, there is a chance for the Royals to add an important free-agent piece, as well. Throw in the fact that 2012 is the last season of Zack Greinke's current contract, and suddenly it looms as a very important year for the franchise.
So, who will represent the Royals in the 2012 All-Star Game? That player (or players) will be seen as the face of a franchise that (we can only hope) will be seen as on the rise. Here are my candidates, with what I think are the odds they will be selected. Please note, I am not a gambler, so these odds should be taken with an entire salt shaker.
Zack Greinke: Probably the best-known Royal to baseball fans across the country. An actual star after his Cy Young Award last year. And you can never have too many pitchers on the All-Star teams in case the game goes 20 innings. Possible complication: that pesky business about his contract being up after 2012. Will he still be a Royal in July 2012? Or will they feel the need to trade him? Odds: 2-1.
Joakim Soria: As I said, you can never have too many pitchers in this game. And it's nice to have some relief pitchers on the staff. If Zack is still getting the run support in 2012 he's received this year, Soria might end up being the choice. Odds: 3-1.
Billy Butler: First base is a loaded position, especially in the American League. Billy has a chance at an All-Star nod this year, so that might help him be on the radar in two years. But he has to overcome Miguel Cabrera, Paul Konerko and Justin Morneau, and that's just in his own division. Odds: 5-1.
Alex Gordon: I'm not hopping off this bandwagon. This is a rant for another day, but I seriously cannot believe Gordon is being allowed to put up a 1.100 OPS in Omaha while Scott Podsednik puts up a .689 in the majors. For comparison purposes, Miguel Cabrera leads the AL with a 1.056 OPS. I'd be willing to live with the occasional error as Gordon "learns to play left field" (seriously, is it that difficult?) in the majors to get that bat in the lineup. Anyway, the average AL left fielder this year has a .759 OPS. Alex put up a .735 in his rookie year and a .783 in 2008. He still figures to improve offensively, as he's only 26. Odds: 10-1.
Kila Ka'aihue: Currently putting up a 1.105 OPS in Omaha. Yep, even better than Alex Gordon. Kila has to overcome the same group of first basemen that Butler has to, plus Kila has to overcome Billy Butler. And the Royals' bizarre reluctance to give him a chance. Odds: 25-1.
Luke Hochevar: It looked like the light was starting to come on before his last start, which we now know was cut short by elbow soreness. With the old Royals' training staff, I would have expected the "sprained elbow" to become Tommy John surgery within months, but I think we're in better hands now. Anyway, if the Royals can improve their infield defense before the 2012 season, this ground-ball pitcher might have a chance. Odds: 40-1.
Mike Moustakas: Hey, Evan Longoria did it in his rookie season! Odds: 50-1.
Mike Aviles: The Royals will keep looking for middle infielders to replace this guy until they find one who can hit over .210. Age is working against him, though--he will be 31 when the 2012 season starts. Odds: 60-1.
David DeJesus: Probably won't even be a Royal in 2012, although he seems like he would be willing to re-sign with the team after his contract is up in 2011. But he might be too expensive, especially for a guy who will turn 32 after that 2011 season. Too bad, he's a fan favorite who would have ESPN on his jock if he played for the Yankees or Red Sox. Oh wait, I was going to stop the inferiority complex. Sorry about that. Odds: 75-1.
Yuniesky Betancourt: No.
OK, enough good old-fashioned Kansas City inferiority complex. There is too much to be excited about...2012 figures to be an interesting year for Royals fans. We should be beginning to see all that talent at Northwest Arkansas reach the majors and hopefully start to contribute. Meanwhile, with the big contracts of Jose Guillen and Gil Meche off the books, there is a chance for the Royals to add an important free-agent piece, as well. Throw in the fact that 2012 is the last season of Zack Greinke's current contract, and suddenly it looms as a very important year for the franchise.
So, who will represent the Royals in the 2012 All-Star Game? That player (or players) will be seen as the face of a franchise that (we can only hope) will be seen as on the rise. Here are my candidates, with what I think are the odds they will be selected. Please note, I am not a gambler, so these odds should be taken with an entire salt shaker.
Zack Greinke: Probably the best-known Royal to baseball fans across the country. An actual star after his Cy Young Award last year. And you can never have too many pitchers on the All-Star teams in case the game goes 20 innings. Possible complication: that pesky business about his contract being up after 2012. Will he still be a Royal in July 2012? Or will they feel the need to trade him? Odds: 2-1.
Joakim Soria: As I said, you can never have too many pitchers in this game. And it's nice to have some relief pitchers on the staff. If Zack is still getting the run support in 2012 he's received this year, Soria might end up being the choice. Odds: 3-1.
Billy Butler: First base is a loaded position, especially in the American League. Billy has a chance at an All-Star nod this year, so that might help him be on the radar in two years. But he has to overcome Miguel Cabrera, Paul Konerko and Justin Morneau, and that's just in his own division. Odds: 5-1.
Alex Gordon: I'm not hopping off this bandwagon. This is a rant for another day, but I seriously cannot believe Gordon is being allowed to put up a 1.100 OPS in Omaha while Scott Podsednik puts up a .689 in the majors. For comparison purposes, Miguel Cabrera leads the AL with a 1.056 OPS. I'd be willing to live with the occasional error as Gordon "learns to play left field" (seriously, is it that difficult?) in the majors to get that bat in the lineup. Anyway, the average AL left fielder this year has a .759 OPS. Alex put up a .735 in his rookie year and a .783 in 2008. He still figures to improve offensively, as he's only 26. Odds: 10-1.
Kila Ka'aihue: Currently putting up a 1.105 OPS in Omaha. Yep, even better than Alex Gordon. Kila has to overcome the same group of first basemen that Butler has to, plus Kila has to overcome Billy Butler. And the Royals' bizarre reluctance to give him a chance. Odds: 25-1.
Luke Hochevar: It looked like the light was starting to come on before his last start, which we now know was cut short by elbow soreness. With the old Royals' training staff, I would have expected the "sprained elbow" to become Tommy John surgery within months, but I think we're in better hands now. Anyway, if the Royals can improve their infield defense before the 2012 season, this ground-ball pitcher might have a chance. Odds: 40-1.
Mike Moustakas: Hey, Evan Longoria did it in his rookie season! Odds: 50-1.
Mike Aviles: The Royals will keep looking for middle infielders to replace this guy until they find one who can hit over .210. Age is working against him, though--he will be 31 when the 2012 season starts. Odds: 60-1.
David DeJesus: Probably won't even be a Royal in 2012, although he seems like he would be willing to re-sign with the team after his contract is up in 2011. But he might be too expensive, especially for a guy who will turn 32 after that 2011 season. Too bad, he's a fan favorite who would have ESPN on his jock if he played for the Yankees or Red Sox. Oh wait, I was going to stop the inferiority complex. Sorry about that. Odds: 75-1.
Yuniesky Betancourt: No.
Saturday, June 5, 2010
I'm Just Sittin' On The Shelf
(From "All Over You")
Are the Royals using their bench enough?
I think the notion of a "set lineup" is not very realistic. Most players need a day of rest here and there, plus injuries--even if they are minor--are almost inevitable over 6 months of baseball. And normally catchers do not play day games after night games. So, while there are certainly regulars and a batting order that gets used the most, it is unlikely that a team will run the same order out there more than 20-25 times in a season. This is probably even truer in the American League, where a team can give that slugging outfielder or first baseman a game at DH and "rest" him that way.
But the Royals, with one-third of the season gone, seem intent on turning that conventional wisdom on its head. Maybe they've decided using the same nine players every day is the new market inefficiency.
This isn't a sermon on which batting order the Royals should use. Lots of studies by smarter people than me have decided that lineup order doesn't greatly effect a team's offensive output. The Royals could probably help themselves there by hitting David DeJesus first and Mike Aviles second.
No, this is more about the Royals basically ignoring Brayan Pena this season. Or about Mitch Maier needing Rick Ankiel's injury to get a chance. Or a mindset that keeps Kila Ka'aihue in Omaha.
In 56 games this season before Saturday, the Royals have used a batting order of Podsednik, Aviles, DeJesus, Butler, Guillen, Callaspo, Maier, Betancourt, Kendall a total of 10 times. I could say in 21 games this season, since Ned Yost went with that order in his first four games as manager, and he has been responsible for all 10 of those uses. You have to go back to 1989 to find an order the Royals used more frequently in one season (and that order was used 14 times).
I should add that I don't have major objections to that lineup. I would move Aviles to shortstop and put Chris Getz in at second base, but it's obvious the Royals love them some Yuniesky Betancourt. And hey, Yuni hasn't been a complete train wreck on offense so far this season. He even has managed to get his Ultimate Zone Rating up to 0.0 instead of last year's horrific -11.4. The problem is, this is probably about the best we can ever expect from Betancourt, and it's essentially a league-average shortstop.
Anyway, not only do the Royals use the same batting order every night, it seems like they are intent on having a team full of Cal Ripkens--playing every inning of every game. The Royals have six of the top 50 AL players in innings played. No one else has that many. Jason Kendall leads all AL catchers in innings played by a wide margin (65). He has been in there for 92.2% of all innings the Royals have played. That seems odd for a 36-year-old catcher. As a result of this, we still don't know if Brayan Pena can be a useful major league catcher. Sure, he hasn't played particularly well when he's been in there, but it might be tough to find a groove when you play 39 innings in two months.
To be fair, Kendall has been decent. He has no power, but he's done a decent job of getting on base. Defensively, he has at least helped the Royals cut down significantly on the wild pitches and passed balls that were such problems last year. The team has gone from 89 and 14 in 2009 to 17 and 2 this season, respectively. And he is throwing at basestealers at the same rate (25%) as Royals catchers did last year. I would just like to see Pena get more of a shot.
All over the field, there are Royals who have played practically every out this season. Alberto Callaspo has played 97.8% of the team's innings; he would be third in the AL at third base if he hadn't played 99 innings at second base. Billy Butler has played 97.4% of the innings; he is third in the league for first basemen. Scott Podsednik (91.8%, second in the league in left field), Betancourt (91.6%, 6th in the league at shortstop) and David DeJesus (91.2%, fifth in the league in right field) are all in the top 50 overall in innings. Even Jose Guillen has gotten in the act, starting 55 of the 56 games and pinch-hitting (and playing right field) in the other one.
Part of the problem is the Royals' insistence on carrying eight relief pitchers, which they have done for a good chunk of this season. Even now, with a more normal seven relievers, they don't have a true backup at first base, nor do they have anyone on the bench who you would want to give Guillen a day off at DH. This is where Ka'aihue could help. Like most Royals fans, I want to see Kila get a shot, a real shot, at the major league level. Although if the Royals are going to keep using their current philosophy of lineup management, perhaps he is better served getting regular playing time at Omaha. Still, as a left-handed hitter, he would be a nice option to have on the bench.
My main worry is that these guys will crash sometime in August if they don't get a day off here and there. I'm not calling for Willie Bloomquist or Wilson Betemit to get more playing time; in fact, I think the Royals are doing a better job this year of not overusing Bloomquist. It just seems to me that a bench of Kila, Bloomquist, Pena, Getz/Betancourt and an outfielder from Omaha (either David Lough or Jordan Parraz; the Royals have said they want to keep Alex Gordon there to keep working on being an outfielder, and I'm inclined to agree with that idea) would give Yost the ability to give everyone a little rest, plus some lineup and strategic flexibility.
Are the Royals using their bench enough?
I think the notion of a "set lineup" is not very realistic. Most players need a day of rest here and there, plus injuries--even if they are minor--are almost inevitable over 6 months of baseball. And normally catchers do not play day games after night games. So, while there are certainly regulars and a batting order that gets used the most, it is unlikely that a team will run the same order out there more than 20-25 times in a season. This is probably even truer in the American League, where a team can give that slugging outfielder or first baseman a game at DH and "rest" him that way.
But the Royals, with one-third of the season gone, seem intent on turning that conventional wisdom on its head. Maybe they've decided using the same nine players every day is the new market inefficiency.
This isn't a sermon on which batting order the Royals should use. Lots of studies by smarter people than me have decided that lineup order doesn't greatly effect a team's offensive output. The Royals could probably help themselves there by hitting David DeJesus first and Mike Aviles second.
No, this is more about the Royals basically ignoring Brayan Pena this season. Or about Mitch Maier needing Rick Ankiel's injury to get a chance. Or a mindset that keeps Kila Ka'aihue in Omaha.
In 56 games this season before Saturday, the Royals have used a batting order of Podsednik, Aviles, DeJesus, Butler, Guillen, Callaspo, Maier, Betancourt, Kendall a total of 10 times. I could say in 21 games this season, since Ned Yost went with that order in his first four games as manager, and he has been responsible for all 10 of those uses. You have to go back to 1989 to find an order the Royals used more frequently in one season (and that order was used 14 times).
I should add that I don't have major objections to that lineup. I would move Aviles to shortstop and put Chris Getz in at second base, but it's obvious the Royals love them some Yuniesky Betancourt. And hey, Yuni hasn't been a complete train wreck on offense so far this season. He even has managed to get his Ultimate Zone Rating up to 0.0 instead of last year's horrific -11.4. The problem is, this is probably about the best we can ever expect from Betancourt, and it's essentially a league-average shortstop.
Anyway, not only do the Royals use the same batting order every night, it seems like they are intent on having a team full of Cal Ripkens--playing every inning of every game. The Royals have six of the top 50 AL players in innings played. No one else has that many. Jason Kendall leads all AL catchers in innings played by a wide margin (65). He has been in there for 92.2% of all innings the Royals have played. That seems odd for a 36-year-old catcher. As a result of this, we still don't know if Brayan Pena can be a useful major league catcher. Sure, he hasn't played particularly well when he's been in there, but it might be tough to find a groove when you play 39 innings in two months.
To be fair, Kendall has been decent. He has no power, but he's done a decent job of getting on base. Defensively, he has at least helped the Royals cut down significantly on the wild pitches and passed balls that were such problems last year. The team has gone from 89 and 14 in 2009 to 17 and 2 this season, respectively. And he is throwing at basestealers at the same rate (25%) as Royals catchers did last year. I would just like to see Pena get more of a shot.
All over the field, there are Royals who have played practically every out this season. Alberto Callaspo has played 97.8% of the team's innings; he would be third in the AL at third base if he hadn't played 99 innings at second base. Billy Butler has played 97.4% of the innings; he is third in the league for first basemen. Scott Podsednik (91.8%, second in the league in left field), Betancourt (91.6%, 6th in the league at shortstop) and David DeJesus (91.2%, fifth in the league in right field) are all in the top 50 overall in innings. Even Jose Guillen has gotten in the act, starting 55 of the 56 games and pinch-hitting (and playing right field) in the other one.
Part of the problem is the Royals' insistence on carrying eight relief pitchers, which they have done for a good chunk of this season. Even now, with a more normal seven relievers, they don't have a true backup at first base, nor do they have anyone on the bench who you would want to give Guillen a day off at DH. This is where Ka'aihue could help. Like most Royals fans, I want to see Kila get a shot, a real shot, at the major league level. Although if the Royals are going to keep using their current philosophy of lineup management, perhaps he is better served getting regular playing time at Omaha. Still, as a left-handed hitter, he would be a nice option to have on the bench.
My main worry is that these guys will crash sometime in August if they don't get a day off here and there. I'm not calling for Willie Bloomquist or Wilson Betemit to get more playing time; in fact, I think the Royals are doing a better job this year of not overusing Bloomquist. It just seems to me that a bench of Kila, Bloomquist, Pena, Getz/Betancourt and an outfielder from Omaha (either David Lough or Jordan Parraz; the Royals have said they want to keep Alex Gordon there to keep working on being an outfielder, and I'm inclined to agree with that idea) would give Yost the ability to give everyone a little rest, plus some lineup and strategic flexibility.
Saturday, May 30, 2009
The Party's Over
...and there's less and less to say.
(From "Highlands," Time Out Of Mind)
First off, let me apologize for not having a more regular posting schedule the last few weeks. Buying a house and packing for a move is rather time-consuming, I've found. Also, when you're a neat freak like me, having boxes piled everywhere really takes you out of your comfort zone. Finally, the Royals haven't been really inspiring lately. In fact, they've pretty much resembled our apartment the last three weeks: unorganized, discombobulated, upside-down, a work in progress.
So, allow me to address the last three weeks of Royals baseball thus: What the hell happened? On May 7, the Royals won their sixth game in a row to move to 18-11 on the season. Since then, they've won a total of five games, while losing 14.
Obviously, a collapse like that is a total team effort. No one or two players can make that much difference. As evidence, I present this chart, A Tale of Two Months (Offense Division):
As you can see, several of the Royals' regulars have had a tough month. Some of them should have been expected--Willie Bloomquist, John Buck and Alberto Callaspo were all over 200 points over their career averages. A dropoff was inevitable. Of course, now the pendulum seems to have swung too far the other way for a lot of these guys.
I see three big problems with the Royals' offense in that chart. First, David DeJesus is obviously struggling this year, even though he's been better in May. But DeJesus is only 29, and as far as we know, he's healthy. His career OPS is .775; there is no reason to expect him not to be around that this year. But in the short term, having a left fielder with a .670 OPS is not helpful. In fact, DDJ ranks 15th among AL left fielders in that stat. Since there are only 14 teams in the AL, this is bad news.
The second thing killing KC's offense right now is the possibly injury-related struggles of Coco Crisp. Remember, when the Royals were on fire in late April and early May, it seemed like Crisp was always on base; in fact, his on-base percentage in April was .371, which seemed promising, given his .247 batting average that month. It's true his OPS 125 points higher than his career average, but in May he's almost that many points below it. Crisp has missed the last few games with a sore shoulder; perhaps that has hindered him offensively. His last extra-base hit was a triple back on May 14. The good news is that Crisp's batting average (currently .233) is likely to rebound when he's healthy. His batting average on balls in play (BABIP) is only .248 this year; his career average is .309. So an important, possibly the most important, cog in the Royals' offense should improve from his performance this month.
The most baffling hitting performance by a Royal this year has to be Mike Aviles' freefall. Last year, when Aviles was called up and finally inserted in the lineup in Tony Pena Jr.'s place, the Royals offense improved greatly. The Royals put up better OPS numbers in the last four months of the season than they did in the first two. But this year, Aviles has done a terrific impersonation of Pena. TPJ posted an OPS+ (that's OPS normalized for league and position; 100 is league average) of 7. Yeah, 7. This year, Aviles so far has put up a 21. He did finally admit a while back that he's had a forearm injury this year; I hope that has been the source of his problem. I didn't expect him to duplicate last year's numbers, but I was hopeful the Royals would have at least a league average hitter at shortstop this season.
With the loss the Royals finished off while I was writing this, KC is now tied for third in the AL Central and three games under .500 for the first time this season. Sure, it's just three games, and the Royals are not as bad a team as they have played the last three weeks, just like they weren't as good as they looked the first five weeks. But I can't see them climbing back into the race. Detroit looks really good now, and I'm just waiting for the Twins to get hot. The Royals still need to improve their offense if they want to contend.
(From "Highlands," Time Out Of Mind)
First off, let me apologize for not having a more regular posting schedule the last few weeks. Buying a house and packing for a move is rather time-consuming, I've found. Also, when you're a neat freak like me, having boxes piled everywhere really takes you out of your comfort zone. Finally, the Royals haven't been really inspiring lately. In fact, they've pretty much resembled our apartment the last three weeks: unorganized, discombobulated, upside-down, a work in progress.
So, allow me to address the last three weeks of Royals baseball thus: What the hell happened? On May 7, the Royals won their sixth game in a row to move to 18-11 on the season. Since then, they've won a total of five games, while losing 14.
Obviously, a collapse like that is a total team effort. No one or two players can make that much difference. As evidence, I present this chart, A Tale of Two Months (Offense Division):
| Player | April OPS | May OPS | Difference |
| Crisp | .865 | .621 | -.244 |
| DeJesus | .623 | .706 | +.083 |
| Butler | .807 | .799 | -.008 |
| Guillen | .691 | .856 | +.165 |
| Jacobs | .785 | .832 | +.047 |
| Teahen | .879 | .741 | -.138 |
| Callaspo | .978 | .736 | -.242 |
| Olivo | .529 | .704 | +.175 |
| Aviles | .518 | .355 | -.163 |
| Bloomquist | .863 | .675 | -.188 |
| Buck | 1.070 | .487 | -.583 |
As you can see, several of the Royals' regulars have had a tough month. Some of them should have been expected--Willie Bloomquist, John Buck and Alberto Callaspo were all over 200 points over their career averages. A dropoff was inevitable. Of course, now the pendulum seems to have swung too far the other way for a lot of these guys.
I see three big problems with the Royals' offense in that chart. First, David DeJesus is obviously struggling this year, even though he's been better in May. But DeJesus is only 29, and as far as we know, he's healthy. His career OPS is .775; there is no reason to expect him not to be around that this year. But in the short term, having a left fielder with a .670 OPS is not helpful. In fact, DDJ ranks 15th among AL left fielders in that stat. Since there are only 14 teams in the AL, this is bad news.
The second thing killing KC's offense right now is the possibly injury-related struggles of Coco Crisp. Remember, when the Royals were on fire in late April and early May, it seemed like Crisp was always on base; in fact, his on-base percentage in April was .371, which seemed promising, given his .247 batting average that month. It's true his OPS 125 points higher than his career average, but in May he's almost that many points below it. Crisp has missed the last few games with a sore shoulder; perhaps that has hindered him offensively. His last extra-base hit was a triple back on May 14. The good news is that Crisp's batting average (currently .233) is likely to rebound when he's healthy. His batting average on balls in play (BABIP) is only .248 this year; his career average is .309. So an important, possibly the most important, cog in the Royals' offense should improve from his performance this month.
The most baffling hitting performance by a Royal this year has to be Mike Aviles' freefall. Last year, when Aviles was called up and finally inserted in the lineup in Tony Pena Jr.'s place, the Royals offense improved greatly. The Royals put up better OPS numbers in the last four months of the season than they did in the first two. But this year, Aviles has done a terrific impersonation of Pena. TPJ posted an OPS+ (that's OPS normalized for league and position; 100 is league average) of 7. Yeah, 7. This year, Aviles so far has put up a 21. He did finally admit a while back that he's had a forearm injury this year; I hope that has been the source of his problem. I didn't expect him to duplicate last year's numbers, but I was hopeful the Royals would have at least a league average hitter at shortstop this season.
With the loss the Royals finished off while I was writing this, KC is now tied for third in the AL Central and three games under .500 for the first time this season. Sure, it's just three games, and the Royals are not as bad a team as they have played the last three weeks, just like they weren't as good as they looked the first five weeks. But I can't see them climbing back into the race. Detroit looks really good now, and I'm just waiting for the Twins to get hot. The Royals still need to improve their offense if they want to contend.
Sunday, July 13, 2008
Nothing Is Better, Nothing Is Best
...Take heed of this and get plenty of rest.
(From "Nothing Was Delivered," The Basement Tapes)
Nothing is better than a walkoff homerun. So of course I missed David DeJesus's game-winner Saturday night, due to a family commitment. Silly family, get your priorities in order! Just kidding. I can only hope it won't be three more years until the next Royals' walkoff. Yes, that sums up recent Royals history nicely. Last walkoff homer--April 19, 2005.
On a side note, DeJesus's development this year is definitely one of the bright spots in this season. He has already set a career high in homers, and could have his first .300 season this year. He has also provided his usual solid defense and had played all three outfield positions, without complaining about being moved. And he does this for a relatively paltry $2.5 million. He has the highest OPS+ on the team (122), even better than Jose Guillen. Of course, this is the Royals we're talking about, so there has to be a black cloud for this silver lining. That would be David's age, 29 in December. Since most players peak between 26-29, it would seem that David will be declining over the next few years. This doesn't mean he won't be valuable in those years, but it is something the Royals will hopefully consider if they receive trade interest for DeJesus. If KC is really aiming for contending in 2010, it might be more helpful to receive a prospect who will be on the upswing then. I would prefer to keep him, because he is a fun player to watch and there is not a readily available replacement for him.
In today's game, it's too bad Trey Hillman apparently started his All-Star break early. Up 2-1 after the 6th, Hillman let Kyle Davies start the 7th. I have no problem with this move. Davies was pitching well. But after the tying run singled with two outs, it was time to bring in Ron Mahay to face lefty Jeff Clement (or whichever pinch-hitter was summoned; Mahay is effective against righties, too). Instead, Davies surrendered a homer to Clement. That would be .165-hitting Jeff Clement.
Trey, this is simple. You have a lead after 6 innings. Mahay. Ramon Ramirez. Joakim Soria. Win.
So when the Royals scored in the 8th, that should have made it a 3-1 game. Then the 9th inning's misplays (dropped popup, botched rundown) would not have mattered. Instead, they led to a loss to the AL's worst team.
So here we are, at the All-Star break. Due to a scheduling quirk, the Royals do not play again until Friday. That seems like a long time away. But the players deserve some time off, and I hope they will be able to come back and keep the weekend's momentum going. On the bright side, KC hits the break outside the AL Central basement, one game ahead of Cleveland. And at last year's ASB, the Royals were 38-50, 15 games back. This year, they are 43-53, 12 games back. So there has been a little improvement.
Fear not, loyal readers (both of you). I am planning to blog about the All-Star Game. Perhaps this year the Royals' representative will actually get to play.
(From "Nothing Was Delivered," The Basement Tapes)
Nothing is better than a walkoff homerun. So of course I missed David DeJesus's game-winner Saturday night, due to a family commitment. Silly family, get your priorities in order! Just kidding. I can only hope it won't be three more years until the next Royals' walkoff. Yes, that sums up recent Royals history nicely. Last walkoff homer--April 19, 2005.
On a side note, DeJesus's development this year is definitely one of the bright spots in this season. He has already set a career high in homers, and could have his first .300 season this year. He has also provided his usual solid defense and had played all three outfield positions, without complaining about being moved. And he does this for a relatively paltry $2.5 million. He has the highest OPS+ on the team (122), even better than Jose Guillen. Of course, this is the Royals we're talking about, so there has to be a black cloud for this silver lining. That would be David's age, 29 in December. Since most players peak between 26-29, it would seem that David will be declining over the next few years. This doesn't mean he won't be valuable in those years, but it is something the Royals will hopefully consider if they receive trade interest for DeJesus. If KC is really aiming for contending in 2010, it might be more helpful to receive a prospect who will be on the upswing then. I would prefer to keep him, because he is a fun player to watch and there is not a readily available replacement for him.
In today's game, it's too bad Trey Hillman apparently started his All-Star break early. Up 2-1 after the 6th, Hillman let Kyle Davies start the 7th. I have no problem with this move. Davies was pitching well. But after the tying run singled with two outs, it was time to bring in Ron Mahay to face lefty Jeff Clement (or whichever pinch-hitter was summoned; Mahay is effective against righties, too). Instead, Davies surrendered a homer to Clement. That would be .165-hitting Jeff Clement.
Trey, this is simple. You have a lead after 6 innings. Mahay. Ramon Ramirez. Joakim Soria. Win.
So when the Royals scored in the 8th, that should have made it a 3-1 game. Then the 9th inning's misplays (dropped popup, botched rundown) would not have mattered. Instead, they led to a loss to the AL's worst team.
So here we are, at the All-Star break. Due to a scheduling quirk, the Royals do not play again until Friday. That seems like a long time away. But the players deserve some time off, and I hope they will be able to come back and keep the weekend's momentum going. On the bright side, KC hits the break outside the AL Central basement, one game ahead of Cleveland. And at last year's ASB, the Royals were 38-50, 15 games back. This year, they are 43-53, 12 games back. So there has been a little improvement.
Fear not, loyal readers (both of you). I am planning to blog about the All-Star Game. Perhaps this year the Royals' representative will actually get to play.
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