...but the mountains of the past.
(From "Beyond Here Lies Nothin'," Together Through Life)
It's time to state the obvious: Luke Hochevar has no business in the starting rotation of a team trying to make it to the postseason. I hate to say it, because we have all seen the flashes of brilliance, and I also hate to say it because confronting this truth head-on makes me realize how far the Royals really are from being a playoff-caliber team.
After Hochevar got hammered again in today's game against the Yankees, I spent the rest of the afternoon looking through his game logs on baseball-reference.com. We all know Hochevar is prone to disastrous big innings, which is part of the frustration many Royals fans feel towards him. But when you take time to write it down, it's amazing how consistently Hochevar has this problem.
For my little study, I checked how many times Luke gave up four or more runs in an inning. Obviously, pitchers will give up runs, but a 1- or 2-run inning isn't that bad. You could argue a 3-run inning is pretty bad, but it happens. But a 4-run inning, or worse, is really awful. It almost certainly will include walks and extra-base hits, meaning a pitcher has command issues (either losing the strike zone or leaving everything up) and is giving up plenty of hard-hit balls. In other words, it can't normally be chalked up to bad luck. I included innings with unearned runs on the theory that the pitcher needs to be able to work around those. But really, the vast majority of these big innings were all on Hochevar.
In 2008, Hochevar's first chance in the rotation, he made 22 starts and allowed six big innings:
4/22 @ Oakland, a 5-run fourth inning
5/19 @ Boston, a 5-run third inning (only 2 runs were earned; this was Jon Lester's no-hitter)
5/24 @ Toronto, a 4-run first inning
7/1 @ Baltimore, a 4-run third inning
7/6 @ Tampa Bay, a 4-run third inning
7/21 vs. Detroit, a 5-run third inning
OK, he was a rookie on a bad team; maybe a year's experience would help. Nope. In 2009 he made 25 starts and allowed nine big innings:
5/12 @ Oakland, a 7-run second inning
6/18 vs. Arizona, a 4-run third inning
7/30 @ Baltimore, a 4-run fifth inning
8/9 vs. Oakland, a 4-run second inning
8/31 @ Oakland, a 5-run third inning (the 2009 A's finished ninth in the league in runs scored, by the way)
9/6 vs. Anaheim, a 4-run second inning
9/23 vs. Boston, a 6-run fifth inning
9/28 @ New York, a 5-run seventh inning (Hochevar did not record an out in this inning; I was struck by how many of the innings on this list were innings Hochevar completed)
10/4 @ Minnesota, a 4-run first inning
Well, maybe two years in the majors will help him. Nope, in 2010 Hochevar made 17 starts and allowed four big innings:
4/29 @ Tampa Bay, a 5-run second inning
4/29 @ Tampa Bay, a 4-run third inning (yep, he pulled off two big innings in one game!)
5/9 @ Texas, a 4-run third inning
5/15 @ Chicago, a 4-run seventh inning
A sprained elbow cut Hochevar's 2010 season short, but when he returned that September, he avoided the big inning in his five starts.
Finally, in 2011, Hochevar had a decent season. But the first half of the year was more of the same:
4/5 vs. Chicago, a 4-run first inning
4/20 vs. Cleveland, a 4-run sixth inning
5/25 @ Baltimore, an 8-run fourth inning (in some ways, this was the quintessential Hochevar start: three scoreless innings, then the 8-run meltdown, then three perfect innings)
7/3 @ Colorado, a 5-run fifth inning
7/9 vs. Detroit, a 4-run fourth inning
As we all know, Hochevar was impressive after the 2011 All-Star Break, putting up a 3.52 ERA in 12 starts. It looked like he perhaps had turned a corner. That is, until the home opener this year, when Hochevar allowed seven runs in the first inning. Now he has followed that up with a 5-run first inning against Detroit on May 1, and today's 6-run third inning against the Yankees.
So, Hochevar has 102 career starts, and in 26 of those, he has had one inning where he allowed four or more runs, plus the one start where he did it twice. In other words, one out of every four Luke Hochevar starts features a monster inning for the other team!
You just can't win with a guy like that starting every fifth day. Not only does an inning like that put your team in a hole, it often destroys your bullpen. Look how many of those innings came early in a game--this is not a guy who runs out of gas late and gets hamered, this is a guy who can't make it out of the third inning on a regular basis. The Royals already feel compelled to carry two long relievers in their 8-man bullpen. This is ridiculous, since it also serves to limit the bench (the Royals only have three reserve position players available in this setup), so Ned Yost really has to be careful about pinch-hitting or pinch-running. In turn, this affects the lineup--it's no wonder Jeff Francoeur keeps batting fifth no matter how badly he's going, Yost is trying to keep from bunching up his left-handed and right-handed hitters for late-game matchups.
In the short-term, I don't know what the Royals can do. I wouldn't be surprised if they figure out a way to put Hochevar on the disabled list before his next scheduled start. I'm no Luis Mendoza fan, but he could fill in. Also, they could try some of their options at Omaha: Everett Teaford and Nate Adcock have both shown some promise at the major-league level, and Ryan Verdugo has a 2.87 ERA in his first 31 innings at AAA.
The Royals might also take a look at the free-agent options. Cot's Baseball Contracts (http://www.baseballprospectus.com/compensation/cots/) lists pitchers who are currently unsigned. Most of them are unsigned for a reason, but perhaps a stopgap replacement could be found there. The Royals were able to come up with a decent starter in Felipe Paulino with good scouting; perhaps they can repeat that and find a replacement on the waiver wire or even in a trade.
In the long-term, this is an obvious area of concern for the Royals' championship window. Here we are six years into the Dayton Moore era, and we've got one system-developed starting pitcher (Danny Duffy) in the majors to show for it. Granted, Duffy has looked quite good at times this season, but he can't do it alone. Meanwhile, the organization's top pitching prospects struggle at Omaha (Mike Montgomery has a 4.98 ERA) or at Northwest Arkansas (Noel Arguelles, 7.52 ERA; Chris Dwyer, 7.46 ERA). About the only prospect trending up is Jake Odorizzi, and he too is at Northwest Arkansas. He's probably not going to be in the majors until next year, and of course he will likely need time to make an impact here.
If the Royals are serious about contending next year, they are going to need a major upgrade to the starting rotation. As far as I'm concerned, auditions for Hochevar's spot begin now. As long as Hochevar is starting every fifth day, it's going to be difficult to take the Royals' playoff aspirations seriously.
Showing posts with label Luke Hochevar. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Luke Hochevar. Show all posts
Sunday, May 6, 2012
Wednesday, October 26, 2011
Dave Eiland, Difference Maker?
I think we all understand this offseason is a crossroads of sorts for the Royals. The right personnel moves can augment the young talent on the roster and put them in position to contend in 2012, while the wrong moves could potentially make us all wait a couple more years.
So the first big move the team made was adding Dave Eiland as pitching coach, replacing the fired Bob McClure.
I liked McClure, but it is amazing to me he lasted as long as he did as the Royals' pitching coach. Six years with one team is a long tenure for any coach, especially a team that lost as often as the Royals did in that time. When you consider that McClure survived not one, but two managerial changes, it's even more surprising. But I suspect the message had gotten stale. The Royals have led the AL in walks allowed two of the past three years. Changing that will be Eiland's biggest challenge.
So, what is Eiland's background? Drafted by the Yankees in the 7th round of the 1987 draft, he made his major league debut the next season at the age of 22. I suppose that could be a useful experience when the Royals' promising young pitchers start reaching the majors.
After bouncing between the majors and the Yankees' farm system for four seasons, Eiland moved on to San Diego, back to the Yankees, and finally to expansion-era Tampa Bay before finishing up his career in 2002. Fashioning a major-league career out of what he told the Kansas City Star was "a little bit south of mediocre" stuff, Eiland had to learn how to prepare and be a pitcher, not just a thrower.
Eiland then began his coaching career in the Yankees' minor leagues, finally becoming the major-league pitching coach in 2008. He held that job through the 2010 season before the Yankees fired him. Eiland spent the 2011 season in the Tampa Bay front office.
The 2007 Yankees had an ERA+ of 101, meaning they were slightly above league-average. They improved to a 104 in 2008 and 108 in 2009 before a slight dropoff to 106 in 2010. Also, the Yankees' walk and strikeout rates did improve over 2007 during Eiland's tenure:
2007: 3.6 BB/9, 6.3 K/9, 1.75 K/BB
2008: 3.1 BB/9, 7.1 K/9, 2.33 K/BB
2009: 3.6 BB/9, 7.8 K/9, 2.20 K/BB
2010: 3.4 BB/9, 7.2 K/9, 2.14 K/BB
Now the downside: the Yanks' 2011 numbers were better in all three of those categories than in 2010 (3.1 BB/9, 7.5 K/9, 2.41 K/BB). But if Eiland can help the Royals improve their 2011 numbers (3.5 BB/9, 6.7 K/9, 1.94 K/BB) at the same rate, the Royals could certainly contend in 2012.
Of course, the thing Eiland can't control is what he is given to work with. There is a big difference between coaching CC Sabathia and, say, Danny Duffy. It will be up to Dayton Moore and the farm system to give Eiland talent to work with.
In my opinion, Eiland's most important task will be working with Luke Hochevar. We saw a much-improved Hochevar in the second half of the season, but let's be honest: Hochevar has shown flashes of brilliance before. It's unlikely he will ever be an ace, but if he can be an above-average starter, a bona fide number 2 starter, he will be a key piece of the Royals' rotation.
Other big projects for Eiland: getting Aaron Crow back on track and getting Tim Collins and Danny Duffy to improve their control. I have my doubts about Crow as a starter, although there is certainly no harm in giving him a shot to make the rotation in spring training. But even if he returns to a relief role, the Royals need him to be first-half Aaron Crow. Collins could be a valuable 7th-inning guy, maybe even a setup guy in a pinch, but he averaged 6.4 walks per 9 innings pitched in 2011. You just can't let a guy that wild pitch in the late innings. I think Duffy can be a middle of the rotation guy, but he too needs better control--100 pitches in 5 innings isn't going to cut it.
Saturday, June 19, 2010
2012: Who Will Represent The Royals?
As you surely know by now, Kansas City will be hosting the 2012 All-Star Game. Sure, there are ill-informed people bashing the choice, but I'm excited. I'm confident KC will put on a good show and all those east coast elitists will be...well, they probably wouldn't admit being impressed, but at least satisfied. I doubt they'll die of boredom out here in flyover country, anyway.
OK, enough good old-fashioned Kansas City inferiority complex. There is too much to be excited about...2012 figures to be an interesting year for Royals fans. We should be beginning to see all that talent at Northwest Arkansas reach the majors and hopefully start to contribute. Meanwhile, with the big contracts of Jose Guillen and Gil Meche off the books, there is a chance for the Royals to add an important free-agent piece, as well. Throw in the fact that 2012 is the last season of Zack Greinke's current contract, and suddenly it looms as a very important year for the franchise.
So, who will represent the Royals in the 2012 All-Star Game? That player (or players) will be seen as the face of a franchise that (we can only hope) will be seen as on the rise. Here are my candidates, with what I think are the odds they will be selected. Please note, I am not a gambler, so these odds should be taken with an entire salt shaker.
Zack Greinke: Probably the best-known Royal to baseball fans across the country. An actual star after his Cy Young Award last year. And you can never have too many pitchers on the All-Star teams in case the game goes 20 innings. Possible complication: that pesky business about his contract being up after 2012. Will he still be a Royal in July 2012? Or will they feel the need to trade him? Odds: 2-1.
Joakim Soria: As I said, you can never have too many pitchers in this game. And it's nice to have some relief pitchers on the staff. If Zack is still getting the run support in 2012 he's received this year, Soria might end up being the choice. Odds: 3-1.
Billy Butler: First base is a loaded position, especially in the American League. Billy has a chance at an All-Star nod this year, so that might help him be on the radar in two years. But he has to overcome Miguel Cabrera, Paul Konerko and Justin Morneau, and that's just in his own division. Odds: 5-1.
Alex Gordon: I'm not hopping off this bandwagon. This is a rant for another day, but I seriously cannot believe Gordon is being allowed to put up a 1.100 OPS in Omaha while Scott Podsednik puts up a .689 in the majors. For comparison purposes, Miguel Cabrera leads the AL with a 1.056 OPS. I'd be willing to live with the occasional error as Gordon "learns to play left field" (seriously, is it that difficult?) in the majors to get that bat in the lineup. Anyway, the average AL left fielder this year has a .759 OPS. Alex put up a .735 in his rookie year and a .783 in 2008. He still figures to improve offensively, as he's only 26. Odds: 10-1.
Kila Ka'aihue: Currently putting up a 1.105 OPS in Omaha. Yep, even better than Alex Gordon. Kila has to overcome the same group of first basemen that Butler has to, plus Kila has to overcome Billy Butler. And the Royals' bizarre reluctance to give him a chance. Odds: 25-1.
Luke Hochevar: It looked like the light was starting to come on before his last start, which we now know was cut short by elbow soreness. With the old Royals' training staff, I would have expected the "sprained elbow" to become Tommy John surgery within months, but I think we're in better hands now. Anyway, if the Royals can improve their infield defense before the 2012 season, this ground-ball pitcher might have a chance. Odds: 40-1.
Mike Moustakas: Hey, Evan Longoria did it in his rookie season! Odds: 50-1.
Mike Aviles: The Royals will keep looking for middle infielders to replace this guy until they find one who can hit over .210. Age is working against him, though--he will be 31 when the 2012 season starts. Odds: 60-1.
David DeJesus: Probably won't even be a Royal in 2012, although he seems like he would be willing to re-sign with the team after his contract is up in 2011. But he might be too expensive, especially for a guy who will turn 32 after that 2011 season. Too bad, he's a fan favorite who would have ESPN on his jock if he played for the Yankees or Red Sox. Oh wait, I was going to stop the inferiority complex. Sorry about that. Odds: 75-1.
Yuniesky Betancourt: No.
OK, enough good old-fashioned Kansas City inferiority complex. There is too much to be excited about...2012 figures to be an interesting year for Royals fans. We should be beginning to see all that talent at Northwest Arkansas reach the majors and hopefully start to contribute. Meanwhile, with the big contracts of Jose Guillen and Gil Meche off the books, there is a chance for the Royals to add an important free-agent piece, as well. Throw in the fact that 2012 is the last season of Zack Greinke's current contract, and suddenly it looms as a very important year for the franchise.
So, who will represent the Royals in the 2012 All-Star Game? That player (or players) will be seen as the face of a franchise that (we can only hope) will be seen as on the rise. Here are my candidates, with what I think are the odds they will be selected. Please note, I am not a gambler, so these odds should be taken with an entire salt shaker.
Zack Greinke: Probably the best-known Royal to baseball fans across the country. An actual star after his Cy Young Award last year. And you can never have too many pitchers on the All-Star teams in case the game goes 20 innings. Possible complication: that pesky business about his contract being up after 2012. Will he still be a Royal in July 2012? Or will they feel the need to trade him? Odds: 2-1.
Joakim Soria: As I said, you can never have too many pitchers in this game. And it's nice to have some relief pitchers on the staff. If Zack is still getting the run support in 2012 he's received this year, Soria might end up being the choice. Odds: 3-1.
Billy Butler: First base is a loaded position, especially in the American League. Billy has a chance at an All-Star nod this year, so that might help him be on the radar in two years. But he has to overcome Miguel Cabrera, Paul Konerko and Justin Morneau, and that's just in his own division. Odds: 5-1.
Alex Gordon: I'm not hopping off this bandwagon. This is a rant for another day, but I seriously cannot believe Gordon is being allowed to put up a 1.100 OPS in Omaha while Scott Podsednik puts up a .689 in the majors. For comparison purposes, Miguel Cabrera leads the AL with a 1.056 OPS. I'd be willing to live with the occasional error as Gordon "learns to play left field" (seriously, is it that difficult?) in the majors to get that bat in the lineup. Anyway, the average AL left fielder this year has a .759 OPS. Alex put up a .735 in his rookie year and a .783 in 2008. He still figures to improve offensively, as he's only 26. Odds: 10-1.
Kila Ka'aihue: Currently putting up a 1.105 OPS in Omaha. Yep, even better than Alex Gordon. Kila has to overcome the same group of first basemen that Butler has to, plus Kila has to overcome Billy Butler. And the Royals' bizarre reluctance to give him a chance. Odds: 25-1.
Luke Hochevar: It looked like the light was starting to come on before his last start, which we now know was cut short by elbow soreness. With the old Royals' training staff, I would have expected the "sprained elbow" to become Tommy John surgery within months, but I think we're in better hands now. Anyway, if the Royals can improve their infield defense before the 2012 season, this ground-ball pitcher might have a chance. Odds: 40-1.
Mike Moustakas: Hey, Evan Longoria did it in his rookie season! Odds: 50-1.
Mike Aviles: The Royals will keep looking for middle infielders to replace this guy until they find one who can hit over .210. Age is working against him, though--he will be 31 when the 2012 season starts. Odds: 60-1.
David DeJesus: Probably won't even be a Royal in 2012, although he seems like he would be willing to re-sign with the team after his contract is up in 2011. But he might be too expensive, especially for a guy who will turn 32 after that 2011 season. Too bad, he's a fan favorite who would have ESPN on his jock if he played for the Yankees or Red Sox. Oh wait, I was going to stop the inferiority complex. Sorry about that. Odds: 75-1.
Yuniesky Betancourt: No.
Sunday, February 14, 2010
Skies Are Gray
...I'm looking for anything that will bring a happy glow
(From "Can't Wait," Time Out Of Mind)
Oh look, it's snowing again outside the Tangled Up HQ here in Overland Park. This winter seems like it's lasted forever and may never end. And I doubt any Royals fan out there really believes, deep down, that this team can contend for a division title in 2010.
But pitchers and catchers report to Surprise, Arizona for the beginning of spring training on Wednesday. Some guys (notably Zack Greinke and Joakim Soria) are already there. Spring really is on the way. So now, let's try a little optimism. There will be plenty of time for pessimism once the season starts. Please note, I don't believe all of this will happen this season. In a six-month season, no team ever has everything go right, even a loaded team like the Red Sox or Yankees. Also note, I'm ignoring for now the Royals' three most promising players for this season--for the purposes of this discussion, I'm going to presume Greinke will be dominant again, Soria will be in top form, and Billy Butler will continue to be one of baseball's best young hitters.
With those caveats in mind, here are four players whom I feel could greatly exceed expectations this year. And if they do, this Royals team could be much better than anyone thinks.
1. Alex Gordon. It sure feels like we've been waiting forever for him to become George Brett 2.0. I do agree that it's highly unlikely he will ever reach that plateau, but he could certainly become an asset to the Royals' offense. Gordon's 2009 season was torpedoed by injury almost from the get-go. Still, in the 49 games he did get to play in, he did post a .324 OBP. That's not great, but it was much better than his .232 BA. If Gordon had put up, say, a .260 BA, his OBP would have climbed to .350 or so. And don't forget, that .324 OBP was better than several guys the Royals gave many more plate appearances to: Miguel Olivo, Yuniesky Betancourt, Willie Bloomquist and two guys the Royals gave a pile of money to solely for their hitting ability, Jose Guillen and Mike Jacobs.
If Gordon had walked at the same rate he did last year for as many plate appearances as Butler had, he would have led the team in walks (by a wide margin) with 75. My hope is that Gordon is really beginning to master the strike zone at the MLB level, and that increased power numbers will follow. As it is, when he was healthy for most of the season in 2008, he did post a 109 OPS+ and a .783 OPS. Gordon just turned 26 a few days ago, so he should be entering the prime of his career. If he's ever going to make the sort of leap Butler made last year, now is the time.
2. Luke Hochevar. Here's the other Royals' top draft pick whose stardom we've seemingly been waiting on forever. Like Gordon, Hochevar may never reach the level we hoped for when he was drafted, or the level you would expect from his lofty draft slot. But if he could become a solid #3 or even #2 starter, the Royals would have a rotation that any AL Central team would envy.
Oddly, nearly all of Hochevar's numbers trended downward from his rookie season in 2008 to 2009. Yet, he showed real flashes of brilliance last season. There was the 80-pitch complete game win over Cincinnati, the 13-strikeout game against Texas, and the complete-game shutout of the Chicago White Sox. Obviously, no pitcher is going to throw like that every time out. But there was some evidence that Hochevar has the ability to be an above-average major league pitcher.
For one thing, Hochevar's BB/9 and K/9 ratios both improved from 2008 to 2009. While we only have two seasons' worth of data, it would seem that Hochevar is also figuring out the strike zone at the MLB level. This is possibly more important for him than any other Royals starter, because Hochevar is a sinkerball pitcher, and therefore more dependent on the infield defense behind him to make plays. The more strikeouts he can get reduces the number of batted balls in play, and the number of those that get through the infield for hits.
Which brings us to another reason to hope Hochevar can break out in 2010--the hope that the Royals' infield defense will be better. Although they need to find a place for his bat, the Royals are best served by finding Alberto Callaspo a defensive spot far away from the middle of the infield now that they have Chris Getz to play second. And if Mike Aviles can come back from his injury and reclaim the shortstop job from Betancourt, suddenly the Royals might be at least passable defensively. It seems simple, but just having decent infielders who can catch ground balls would go a long ways towards helping Hochevar reach his potential.
3. Robinson Tejeda. After the Royals ran Gil Meche and Brian Bannister into the ground last season, they basically made Tejeda a starter out of desperation. And in six September starts, he vaulted himself into contention for a rotation spot in 2010. In those starts, five of which came against teams that finished with a winning record, went 3-1 with a 2.84 ERA. Now, we've seen this kind of sparkling September before, only to be extremely disappointed the following season--here's looking at you, Kyle Davies--so Tejeda's promising month should be taken with a grain or two of salt. But even if Tejeda does not make the starting rotation, perhaps he will be given a more important role in the bullpen, which was a major problem for KC last year.
4. Juan Cruz. Speaking of major bullpen problems, here's a guy who was in the middle of many of them in 2009. It's funny (funny strange, not funny ha-ha), because the signing of Cruz was the one move the Royals made last offseason that was well-received by practically every Royal fan. Cruz was coming off two exceptional years in Arizona as a reliever, and was expected to be a primary setup man for Soria. Instead, he was probably the Royals' worst bullpen member not named Kyle Farnsworth. The most amazing thing about Cruz last year was his inability to get strikeouts. He went from K/9 rates over 12 in 2007-08 to 6.8 last year with no apparent reason before he finally went on the disabled list with shoulder inflammation in August. If he is healthy this season, and can return to the form the Royals expected when they signed him, it would go a long way towards solidifying the bullpen in front of Soria. The Royals figure to be offensively challenged again this year, so the times the starting pitchers leave the game with a lead, the bullpen must be able to finish out the game.
(From "Can't Wait," Time Out Of Mind)
Oh look, it's snowing again outside the Tangled Up HQ here in Overland Park. This winter seems like it's lasted forever and may never end. And I doubt any Royals fan out there really believes, deep down, that this team can contend for a division title in 2010.
But pitchers and catchers report to Surprise, Arizona for the beginning of spring training on Wednesday. Some guys (notably Zack Greinke and Joakim Soria) are already there. Spring really is on the way. So now, let's try a little optimism. There will be plenty of time for pessimism once the season starts. Please note, I don't believe all of this will happen this season. In a six-month season, no team ever has everything go right, even a loaded team like the Red Sox or Yankees. Also note, I'm ignoring for now the Royals' three most promising players for this season--for the purposes of this discussion, I'm going to presume Greinke will be dominant again, Soria will be in top form, and Billy Butler will continue to be one of baseball's best young hitters.
With those caveats in mind, here are four players whom I feel could greatly exceed expectations this year. And if they do, this Royals team could be much better than anyone thinks.
1. Alex Gordon. It sure feels like we've been waiting forever for him to become George Brett 2.0. I do agree that it's highly unlikely he will ever reach that plateau, but he could certainly become an asset to the Royals' offense. Gordon's 2009 season was torpedoed by injury almost from the get-go. Still, in the 49 games he did get to play in, he did post a .324 OBP. That's not great, but it was much better than his .232 BA. If Gordon had put up, say, a .260 BA, his OBP would have climbed to .350 or so. And don't forget, that .324 OBP was better than several guys the Royals gave many more plate appearances to: Miguel Olivo, Yuniesky Betancourt, Willie Bloomquist and two guys the Royals gave a pile of money to solely for their hitting ability, Jose Guillen and Mike Jacobs.
If Gordon had walked at the same rate he did last year for as many plate appearances as Butler had, he would have led the team in walks (by a wide margin) with 75. My hope is that Gordon is really beginning to master the strike zone at the MLB level, and that increased power numbers will follow. As it is, when he was healthy for most of the season in 2008, he did post a 109 OPS+ and a .783 OPS. Gordon just turned 26 a few days ago, so he should be entering the prime of his career. If he's ever going to make the sort of leap Butler made last year, now is the time.
2. Luke Hochevar. Here's the other Royals' top draft pick whose stardom we've seemingly been waiting on forever. Like Gordon, Hochevar may never reach the level we hoped for when he was drafted, or the level you would expect from his lofty draft slot. But if he could become a solid #3 or even #2 starter, the Royals would have a rotation that any AL Central team would envy.
Oddly, nearly all of Hochevar's numbers trended downward from his rookie season in 2008 to 2009. Yet, he showed real flashes of brilliance last season. There was the 80-pitch complete game win over Cincinnati, the 13-strikeout game against Texas, and the complete-game shutout of the Chicago White Sox. Obviously, no pitcher is going to throw like that every time out. But there was some evidence that Hochevar has the ability to be an above-average major league pitcher.
For one thing, Hochevar's BB/9 and K/9 ratios both improved from 2008 to 2009. While we only have two seasons' worth of data, it would seem that Hochevar is also figuring out the strike zone at the MLB level. This is possibly more important for him than any other Royals starter, because Hochevar is a sinkerball pitcher, and therefore more dependent on the infield defense behind him to make plays. The more strikeouts he can get reduces the number of batted balls in play, and the number of those that get through the infield for hits.
Which brings us to another reason to hope Hochevar can break out in 2010--the hope that the Royals' infield defense will be better. Although they need to find a place for his bat, the Royals are best served by finding Alberto Callaspo a defensive spot far away from the middle of the infield now that they have Chris Getz to play second. And if Mike Aviles can come back from his injury and reclaim the shortstop job from Betancourt, suddenly the Royals might be at least passable defensively. It seems simple, but just having decent infielders who can catch ground balls would go a long ways towards helping Hochevar reach his potential.
3. Robinson Tejeda. After the Royals ran Gil Meche and Brian Bannister into the ground last season, they basically made Tejeda a starter out of desperation. And in six September starts, he vaulted himself into contention for a rotation spot in 2010. In those starts, five of which came against teams that finished with a winning record, went 3-1 with a 2.84 ERA. Now, we've seen this kind of sparkling September before, only to be extremely disappointed the following season--here's looking at you, Kyle Davies--so Tejeda's promising month should be taken with a grain or two of salt. But even if Tejeda does not make the starting rotation, perhaps he will be given a more important role in the bullpen, which was a major problem for KC last year.
4. Juan Cruz. Speaking of major bullpen problems, here's a guy who was in the middle of many of them in 2009. It's funny (funny strange, not funny ha-ha), because the signing of Cruz was the one move the Royals made last offseason that was well-received by practically every Royal fan. Cruz was coming off two exceptional years in Arizona as a reliever, and was expected to be a primary setup man for Soria. Instead, he was probably the Royals' worst bullpen member not named Kyle Farnsworth. The most amazing thing about Cruz last year was his inability to get strikeouts. He went from K/9 rates over 12 in 2007-08 to 6.8 last year with no apparent reason before he finally went on the disabled list with shoulder inflammation in August. If he is healthy this season, and can return to the form the Royals expected when they signed him, it would go a long way towards solidifying the bullpen in front of Soria. The Royals figure to be offensively challenged again this year, so the times the starting pitchers leave the game with a lead, the bullpen must be able to finish out the game.
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