The 2012 Royals: The Infielders

Hard to believe Opening Day is next week, but it's true. Here's a look at the infield situation for the Royals heading into the season.

Quick, who were the starting infielders for the Royals on Opening Day 2011? I'll give you a minute.

OK, pencils down. If you guessed Kila Ka'aihue, Chris Getz, Alcides Escobar, and Mike Aviles, you win! Oddly, what with 2011 being a year of massive change at the major-league level, there's a good chance two of those players will start on Opening Day this year. That's great in one case, and disheartening in the other. More on that in a moment.

The linchpin of the Royals' 2012 infield, and possibly the entire lineup, is at first base. If you're not excited to see a full season of Eric Hosmer, I do feel sorry for you. Only 22 and primed to start on Opening Day, bat cleanup, and star in the Royals' promo campaign, Hosmer is on his way to stardom. He hit 19 homers in 128 games last year, but I think now that he's adjusted to big league life, he has a shot at 30 homers. It will probably be closer to 25, but regardless, he will be a big part of the Royals' offense. He does need to improve his walk rate some (only 34 in 563 plate appearances), especially as pitchers around the AL will work him carefully. But that's part of the learning process.

Second base has already been a spot for controversy this spring. The demotion of Johnny Giavotella means we'll see Getz (and probably lots of Yuniesky Betancourt!) at second base to begin the season. If you just look at some numbers, this move seems at least defensible. After all, Getz got on base at a better rate than Gio last year, .313 to .273. And their spring training numbers are almost identical, so why not go with the better defensive player?

Here's the thing. Getting on base is important. Hitting for power is more important. And Getz just can't compete with Giavotella there. In 307 career games, Getz has a total of 42 extra-base hits. Giavotella played 46 games last year and got 15 extra-base hits. That rate would give Gio 98 extra-base hits in the same number of games. And Gio has already caught Getz in career homers at 2 each.

Defensive statistics are somewhat unreliable. But if you look at the career numbers (which can help even out some of the sample size consistencies of looking at just one year of defensive stats), it is plain that Getz is basically an average second baseman. For example, Getz has a career Ultimate Zone Rating of 5.2 as a second baseman, and a UZR/150 (simply UZR per 150 games) of 3.0. Dustin Pedroia is at 41.5 and 9.6, respectively. Remember, this stat has nothing to do with offense.

It is likely that Getz is a better defensive player than Giavotella. It's hard to imagine him being so much better defensively that he offsets Gio's advantage on offense. With a team that's light on starting pitching, the Royals' best hope is to put up as many runs as possible early in games and depend on what looks to be a strong bullpen. And while Gio didn't put up outstanding numbers last year, he has hit well at every minor league level. And we know he was playing hurt at the major-league level last year--he had surgery to repair a labral tear in his hip after the season ended. Who knows if that affected his hitting?

It's a nice thought that the Royals will contend this year. But it isn't likely. With that in mind, the Royals really should continue doing what they did last year: let the young players play. We know what Chris Getz is and what he can do (stories about him driving the ball better in spring training strike me as bunk. First, it's Arizona; the ball should carry better there. Second, so far he has 1 double in 32 at-bats. No triples, no homers. Sounds like a VAST improvement to me). Let's find out if Giavotella is part of the solution or not.

The good news is that I expect Giavotella to go to Omaha, put up something like the .871 OPS he did last year, and be back in the majors in May when Getz is hitting .250 with no power. Let's just hope the lack of offensive production at second base hasn't completely destroyed the season by then.

Moving on to shortstop...that position is in good hands (literally) with Alcides Escobar. Just like second base, the Royals will need a step forward offensively from the shortstop position if they hope to contend. Royals shortstops (of course, that was mostly Escobar) only managed a .626 OPS, worst for any position on the team (for the record, Escobar's was .633).

On the other hand, Escobar is such a good defender that it almost makes up for the lack of offense. If the Royals had Giavotella hitting well at second base and Salvador Perez contributing offensively at catcher, they probably could live with Escobar's production from last year, given his defensive work. But until that happens, I'd like to see more offense from Alcides. An on-base percentage topping .300 would be a good start.

Third base is another intriguing spot. A year ago now, pretty much everyone expected Mike Moustakas to be the first hot prospect to make an impact for the Royals. But Moose started a bit slowly at Omaha, Hosmer started off on fire, and ultimately Hosmer made it to the majors first.

A look at Moustakas's overall line from last year is a little concerning: just .263/.309/.367 with 5 homers in 89 games. But a .283/.324/.343 line in August and a sizzling .352/.380/.560 line with 4 homers in September makes me think that Moustakas will be a good hitter this year. I don't think 20 homers and a .750 OPS is out of the question, and that would be quite helpful.

At this point, the backup infielders look to be Billy Butler and Yuniesky Betancourt. Of course, Butler isn't really a backup, but he won't play first very much, I'm sure. It always amazes me how underrated Butler is offensively, even by Royals fans. No, he doesn't hit as many home runs as you might think he would. Yes, he is slow and grounds into double plays. But he has put up OPS numbers well above .800 three years in a row, and a check of his most similar hitters through age 25 at baseball-reference.com shows names like John Olerud, Kent Hrbek and Keith Hernandez. In other words, you can definitely win a championship with a bat like that in the lineup (yes, all those guys were defensive contributors, too). And while it seems like Country Breakfast has been around forever, he won't turn 26 until mid-April. Theoretically, he should still get better.

If you read this blog regularly, you know how I feel about Yuni. I still don't agree with the Royals' decision to bring him in as a utility player, but as long as he has a Royals uniform on, I will hope he does well (that goes for Getz, too). I just don't expect him to. My best hope is that the Royals will pick their spots to play him and he will only have 200 or so at-bats. My fear is that the Royals won't be able to help themselves and Yuni will get almost a starter's number of at-bats. I don't think this offense is good enough to have Betancourt, Getz, Escobar and Quintero playing regularly.

Up next: the outfielders

Your Hearts Must Have The Courage

...for the changing of the guards

(From "Changing Of The Guards," Street Legal)

I realize I am likely the last Royals blogger to say something about the Eric Hosmer callup, but really, what is there to say? I would have liked to see Kila Ka'aihue get a little more time to prove himself, but that's the way it goes sometimes. You can't really keep a guy hitting .439 with an OPS of 1.107 at AAA any longer than the Royals did. The fact that we still don't know for sure whether Kila is a bonafide major leaguer is due to the Royals trading for Mike Jacobs, not due to Eric Hosmer being called up. But that mistake happened and we can't fix it, just gripe about it.

The more interesting aspect of the Hosmer callup is what it says about the Royals organization right now. Whether you believe it or not, the Royals obviously think they are contenders this year. Personally, I don't think this team is good enough to win the AL Central, although they certainly look better than most people thought at the beginning of the season. And hey, as long as they are within a good two weeks of the division lead, they are actually contenders. I don't think Cleveland will continue on their 108-win pace, so why not give it a shot this year?

The easy play for the Royals would have been to let Kila keep playing here for another month, then call up Hosmer and not cost themselves an extra $8-$10 million in arbitration years from now. Instead, the Royals did the right thing for the team on the field, and for the fans. They should be commended for that.

It will be interesting to see how committed the Royals stay to the idea of contending this year. I can't imagine them trading top prospects for short-term "rental players." On the other hand, you could argue that adding Danny Duffy and Mike Montgomery to the rotation is a talent upgrade over whomever they replace, and a "free" one to boot. And adding Mike Moustakas to the lineup actually strengthens the bench, as he likely takes playing time away from Wilson Betemit and Mike Aviles. (In a perfect world, Aviles would start at second and Chris Getz would be benched. But in the name of defense and general scrappiness, I have no doubt Getz will see the majority of the time at second.)

In a way, the Royals are playing with house money. No one expected them to contend this year. Now, they do find themselves in the race, early as it may be. Any prospect they call up will benefit from playing in important games, if the Royals can stay in it. If the Royals fall out of contention, then they can focus on getting as many prospects who deserve it to the majors. It's a good spot to be in.

Thoughts On The Futures Game

John Lamb pitching to Eric Hosmer. Mike Montgomery pitching to Wil Myers. Christian Colon fielding Johnny Giavotella's grounder and throwing him out at first. Is this a bizarre dream? No. Is it a sample of a Red Sox-Yankees game from 2020? God, I hope not. In this instance, it definitely is not. No, this is the Royals Futures Game, a matchup between the Northwest Arkansas Naturals and Omaha Storm Chasers. And it's a wonderful thing.

The Amazing Michelle (that's my way better half if you're new to this blog) and I spent most of our Saturday at the old ballpark, taking in the Royals-Angels game and then the Futures Game. Thankfully, it was a beautiful day for baseball, and the major league team played well. This was my first in-person look at the Royals, and I was pleasantly surprised. Of course, it's hard to tell anything from one game, but it does seem like the Royals will be better defensively and certainly in the bullpen. Yes, the defense has struggled a bit in the first few games, but I think most of that has been Mike Aviles, and I believe he is better with the glove than he has shown so far. We've seen him play a decent shortstop, so he should be able to handle third base. And if he does keep making two errors a game, he won't be playing third very long.

Meanwhile, Alcides Escobar is a lot of fun to watch. Especially after years of watching Angel Berroa, Tony Pena Jr. and Yuniesky Betancourt. It's just nice to not have to hold your breath every time a ball is hit towards the shortstop.

And this bullpen. So far, it looks outstanding. You may remember that last year, for the first month of the season, the bullpen was the weakest link by far on a bad team. That pretty much torpedoed any hope that existed at the start of the season. This year, knock wood, that looks like it won't happen. Aaron Crow looked darn near unhittable yesterday. And I think after three games, Angels manager Mike Scioscia would trade his entire bullpen for the Royals' relievers. So that's a positive. And if the rookies in the bullpen are any indication of the talent on the way to the majors, that's a big positive.

It was a lot of fun to see some of that talent actually on the Kauffman Stadium field. I'm no scout, but I have been watching baseball for a good 30 years now, and I saw lots of things to like. Once again, it's hard to tell much from one game, but I really like Mike Montgomery. Pitching for Omaha, he held Northwest Arkansas hitless for four innings. Montgomery was throwing hard (mid-90s), yet displayed a terrific breaking ball a few times. I also like his delivery--it seems compact, simple, and repeatable. It will be fun to follow him at Omaha this year and see how he does.

Overall, I thought all the pitching looked good. Chris Dwyer struggled a bit, and Danny Duffy walked 3 batters in his 3 innings (while striking out 5, so he wasn't terrible, just a bit wild). Of course, the flip side is that the hitters didn't do a whole lot. David Lough hit the game's only homer--I hope he gets a shot at the majors sometime soon. Johnny Giavotella had a couple of walks and a stolen base, plus a nice defensive play. The two hitters everyone wanted to see, Mike Moustakas and Eric Hosmer, only went 1-8 combined. I think they might have been trying a little too hard to put on a show. I'm not worried about them--what they've done in their minor league careers so far tells me they can hit.

Kudos to whomever came up with the idea for this game. The Royals should definitely make this a yearly tradition, even after this group of prospects is in the majors. Let's face it, this franchise's success will always depend on a strong farm system. So why not give fans in KC a chance to see them and get to know them? Plus, it's got to be good for the prospects to get an opportunity to play in a major league stadium. Perhaps it will reduce the nerves just a bit if and when they actually reach the majors. I really can't see any downside to having this game every year. I would hope the Royals promote it more in the future--I know a couple of fans who didn't know anything about when I talked to them this week, and these weren't casual fans either. But if this game does become an annual event, I suppose it will become well known.

2012: Who Will Represent The Royals?

As you surely know by now, Kansas City will be hosting the 2012 All-Star Game. Sure, there are ill-informed people bashing the choice, but I'm excited. I'm confident KC will put on a good show and all those east coast elitists will be...well, they probably wouldn't admit being impressed, but at least satisfied. I doubt they'll die of boredom out here in flyover country, anyway.

OK, enough good old-fashioned Kansas City inferiority complex. There is too much to be excited about...2012 figures to be an interesting year for Royals fans. We should be beginning to see all that talent at Northwest Arkansas reach the majors and hopefully start to contribute. Meanwhile, with the big contracts of Jose Guillen and Gil Meche off the books, there is a chance for the Royals to add an important free-agent piece, as well. Throw in the fact that 2012 is the last season of Zack Greinke's current contract, and suddenly it looms as a very important year for the franchise.

So, who will represent the Royals in the 2012 All-Star Game? That player (or players) will be seen as the face of a franchise that (we can only hope) will be seen as on the rise. Here are my candidates, with what I think are the odds they will be selected. Please note, I am not a gambler, so these odds should be taken with an entire salt shaker.

Zack Greinke: Probably the best-known Royal to baseball fans across the country. An actual star after his Cy Young Award last year. And you can never have too many pitchers on the All-Star teams in case the game goes 20 innings. Possible complication: that pesky business about his contract being up after 2012. Will he still be a Royal in July 2012? Or will they feel the need to trade him? Odds: 2-1.

Joakim Soria: As I said, you can never have too many pitchers in this game. And it's nice to have some relief pitchers on the staff. If Zack is still getting the run support in 2012 he's received this year, Soria might end up being the choice. Odds: 3-1.

Billy Butler: First base is a loaded position, especially in the American League. Billy has a chance at an All-Star nod this year, so that might help him be on the radar in two years. But he has to overcome Miguel Cabrera, Paul Konerko and Justin Morneau, and that's just in his own division. Odds: 5-1.

Alex Gordon: I'm not hopping off this bandwagon. This is a rant for another day, but I seriously cannot believe Gordon is being allowed to put up a 1.100 OPS in Omaha while Scott Podsednik puts up a .689 in the majors. For comparison purposes, Miguel Cabrera leads the AL with a 1.056 OPS. I'd be willing to live with the occasional error as Gordon "learns to play left field" (seriously, is it that difficult?) in the majors to get that bat in the lineup. Anyway, the average AL left fielder this year has a .759 OPS. Alex put up a .735 in his rookie year and a .783 in 2008. He still figures to improve offensively, as he's only 26. Odds: 10-1.

Kila Ka'aihue: Currently putting up a 1.105 OPS in Omaha. Yep, even better than Alex Gordon. Kila has to overcome the same group of first basemen that Butler has to, plus Kila has to overcome Billy Butler. And the Royals' bizarre reluctance to give him a chance. Odds: 25-1.

Luke Hochevar: It looked like the light was starting to come on before his last start, which we now know was cut short by elbow soreness. With the old Royals' training staff, I would have expected the "sprained elbow" to become Tommy John surgery within months, but I think we're in better hands now. Anyway, if the Royals can improve their infield defense before the 2012 season, this ground-ball pitcher might have a chance. Odds: 40-1.

Mike Moustakas: Hey, Evan Longoria did it in his rookie season! Odds: 50-1.

Mike Aviles: The Royals will keep looking for middle infielders to replace this guy until they find one who can hit over .210. Age is working against him, though--he will be 31 when the 2012 season starts. Odds: 60-1.

David DeJesus: Probably won't even be a Royal in 2012, although he seems like he would be willing to re-sign with the team after his contract is up in 2011. But he might be too expensive, especially for a guy who will turn 32 after that 2011 season. Too bad, he's a fan favorite who would have ESPN on his jock if he played for the Yankees or Red Sox. Oh wait, I was going to stop the inferiority complex. Sorry about that. Odds: 75-1.

Yuniesky Betancourt: No.