The Past Don't Control You

...But the future's like a roulette wheel spinning.
Deep down inside, you know you need a whole new beginning.
(From "Ye Shall Be Changed," The Bootleg Series Vol. 1-3)

And with that, Dayton Moore's transformation of the Royals major-league roster is complete. "That," of course, is Sunday's Zack Greinke trade. Moore took over the Royals in the middle of the 2006 season. Now the only player currently on the roster who played for the Royals in 2006 is outfielder Mitch Maier, and he only had 15 plate appearances that season.

Unfortunately, the major league results from 2006 and 2011 are likely to be similar. However, it looks more and more like the major league results from 2012 and beyond will be much better. The Greinke trade is one more building block for that future.

I think the Royals made a good trade. Not a great one, but a good one. First off, replacing Yuni Betancourt with Alcides Escobar has to be a positive. True, Escobar doesn't have the occasional power Yuni has shown. But they both posted a .288 OBP last year. While that is terrible, I'd rather have an above-average defender whose offense should improve than have, well, Yuni.

Escobar did not have a good rookie season in 2010. But he was a highly-touted prospect and is likely to improve. The good news is, if his defense is as good as advertised, he won't need to be an adept offensive player to have a positive impact. He won't be a free agent until after the 2015 season. If the Royals' scouting is correct, they have found their shortstop for the long-term. This is a good thing.

Then there's Lorenzo Cain. This is an intriguing addition to the now-crowded outfield situation. Cain hasn't shown a lot of power in the minors, but he has shown an ability to take a walk, steal some bases and play good defense in centerfield. Like Escobar, he could be a long-term solution.

I know little about the pitchers the Royals received (Jeremy Jeffress and Jake Odorizzi) except that Jeffress throws hard and both were considered among the Brewers' best prospects. In the pitching-heavy Royals system, it will be interesting to see where they both rank. It is nice that both are righties, as the Royals are as stocked as can be with lefties, it seems.

Meanwhile, life without Zack will not be fun, at least probably not for a year or two. The Royals' projected rotation for 2011 is not especially promising. And let's be honest, watching Zack pitch when he was dialed in was a lot of fun. Of course, getting Zack dialed in was sometimes a problem.

I know there was a lot of wailing and gnashing of teeth over this trade. There were a lot of comparisons to the Carlos Beltran trade in 2004. But to me, the most important thing to remember is that Greinke didn't want to play here anymore. Also, the Royals' farm system is light years ahead of what it was in 2004. Back then, the Royals should have taken the most talent they could get. Now, they can afford to be a little choosy. So they were. They traded a guy who didn't want to be here anymore and a guy no one wanted to be here anymore for two potential solutions at important defensive positions, a possible closer candidate someday (Jeffress) and a possible mid-rotation starter someday (Odorizzi). To me, that's a good trade for the long term. Now, I believe someday soon it will be the Royals' turn to trade prospects for an established player or two.

2012: Who Will Represent The Royals?

As you surely know by now, Kansas City will be hosting the 2012 All-Star Game. Sure, there are ill-informed people bashing the choice, but I'm excited. I'm confident KC will put on a good show and all those east coast elitists will be...well, they probably wouldn't admit being impressed, but at least satisfied. I doubt they'll die of boredom out here in flyover country, anyway.

OK, enough good old-fashioned Kansas City inferiority complex. There is too much to be excited about...2012 figures to be an interesting year for Royals fans. We should be beginning to see all that talent at Northwest Arkansas reach the majors and hopefully start to contribute. Meanwhile, with the big contracts of Jose Guillen and Gil Meche off the books, there is a chance for the Royals to add an important free-agent piece, as well. Throw in the fact that 2012 is the last season of Zack Greinke's current contract, and suddenly it looms as a very important year for the franchise.

So, who will represent the Royals in the 2012 All-Star Game? That player (or players) will be seen as the face of a franchise that (we can only hope) will be seen as on the rise. Here are my candidates, with what I think are the odds they will be selected. Please note, I am not a gambler, so these odds should be taken with an entire salt shaker.

Zack Greinke: Probably the best-known Royal to baseball fans across the country. An actual star after his Cy Young Award last year. And you can never have too many pitchers on the All-Star teams in case the game goes 20 innings. Possible complication: that pesky business about his contract being up after 2012. Will he still be a Royal in July 2012? Or will they feel the need to trade him? Odds: 2-1.

Joakim Soria: As I said, you can never have too many pitchers in this game. And it's nice to have some relief pitchers on the staff. If Zack is still getting the run support in 2012 he's received this year, Soria might end up being the choice. Odds: 3-1.

Billy Butler: First base is a loaded position, especially in the American League. Billy has a chance at an All-Star nod this year, so that might help him be on the radar in two years. But he has to overcome Miguel Cabrera, Paul Konerko and Justin Morneau, and that's just in his own division. Odds: 5-1.

Alex Gordon: I'm not hopping off this bandwagon. This is a rant for another day, but I seriously cannot believe Gordon is being allowed to put up a 1.100 OPS in Omaha while Scott Podsednik puts up a .689 in the majors. For comparison purposes, Miguel Cabrera leads the AL with a 1.056 OPS. I'd be willing to live with the occasional error as Gordon "learns to play left field" (seriously, is it that difficult?) in the majors to get that bat in the lineup. Anyway, the average AL left fielder this year has a .759 OPS. Alex put up a .735 in his rookie year and a .783 in 2008. He still figures to improve offensively, as he's only 26. Odds: 10-1.

Kila Ka'aihue: Currently putting up a 1.105 OPS in Omaha. Yep, even better than Alex Gordon. Kila has to overcome the same group of first basemen that Butler has to, plus Kila has to overcome Billy Butler. And the Royals' bizarre reluctance to give him a chance. Odds: 25-1.

Luke Hochevar: It looked like the light was starting to come on before his last start, which we now know was cut short by elbow soreness. With the old Royals' training staff, I would have expected the "sprained elbow" to become Tommy John surgery within months, but I think we're in better hands now. Anyway, if the Royals can improve their infield defense before the 2012 season, this ground-ball pitcher might have a chance. Odds: 40-1.

Mike Moustakas: Hey, Evan Longoria did it in his rookie season! Odds: 50-1.

Mike Aviles: The Royals will keep looking for middle infielders to replace this guy until they find one who can hit over .210. Age is working against him, though--he will be 31 when the 2012 season starts. Odds: 60-1.

David DeJesus: Probably won't even be a Royal in 2012, although he seems like he would be willing to re-sign with the team after his contract is up in 2011. But he might be too expensive, especially for a guy who will turn 32 after that 2011 season. Too bad, he's a fan favorite who would have ESPN on his jock if he played for the Yankees or Red Sox. Oh wait, I was going to stop the inferiority complex. Sorry about that. Odds: 75-1.

Yuniesky Betancourt: No.

I Thought Some Of 'Em Were Friends Of Mine

...I was wrong about 'em all
(From "Cold Irons Bound," Time Out Of Mind)

You can't blame Zack Greinke if he feels that way about his teammates. For me, and I'm sure for most Royals fans, this season can't end fast enough. There is a lot of bitterness out there--just read any game thread on Royals Review, or consider the hiatus a normally mild-mannered sort like Rany has self-imposed. I'm not going to point fingers at anyone who wants to stop paying attention to this team for a while, or question their fandom. That's your choice, and I can't blame you--it is harder every day to care about this franchise and their unique mixture of incompetence and arrogance.

But there is one remaining reason to pay at least a little attention to the rest of this season, and that is Greinke's quest for a Cy Young award. Of course, winning the award isn't going to make this disappointing season any easier to take, but I think every Royals fan is hoping that Zack will win a nice shiny trophy for his trophy case and be recognized for what he is: the best pitcher in the American League in 2009. It would be the capper on a great story, and I think we all believe Zack deserves something special for pitching so well for the worst team in the AL.

However, there is concern that the media types who vote for these awards will look at Zack's rather paltry win total (13) and decide somehow that CC Sabathia or Justin Verlander or Roy Halladay must be better, simply by having more wins.

You and I know (probably) that wins are a terrible way to measure a pitcher. If the Royals have done nothing else this year, they have certainly provided Exhibit A in the case against the Pitcher Wins stat. How can a pitcher lead the league in ERA, WHIP and shutouts and be near the lead in strikeouts, innings pitched and complete games and not even get close to 20 wins? When he playes for a low-scoring team that can't catch the ball. And of course, neither of those factors are things Zack can control.

Zack has made 29 starts this year, and the Royals have put together a total of 101 runs in those games, an average of 3.48 runs per game. Even for the Royals' pathetic offense, this is below average; KC is scoring 4.08 runs per game overall this year. I went through Zack's game logs for this season and tried to figure out what his record would be if the Royals could have just scored 4 runs per game for him (mind you, league average is 4.83 R/G, so this isn't even giving him averag support). For this exercise, I supposed the Royals had a "4" on the scoreboard when Zack left and the bullpen work stayed the same, no matter how crappy it was.

Unsurprisingly, the Cy Young race would be over. Zack would be 18-3. The Royals would be 18-8 when he pitches (with three times where the opponent ended up with 4 runs), instead of their pathetic 14-15 record in his starts, so they'd have at least 4 more wins this year.

Under these same conditions, Halladay would be 15-5 (he's currently 14-9), Sabathia would be 16-6 (he's currently 16-7), and Verlander would be 17-4 (currently 16-8). So none of these guys have suffered as much from a crappy offense as Zack has. For further evidence, look at their run support: Sabathia has received 5.73 R/G, Halladay 4.86 R/G, and Verlander 4.63 R/G. They're all getting at least 1 more run per start than Greinke.

And of course, Zack has put together this amazing season with one more disadvantage: unlike those other three, Greinke has not had one start against the league's second-most feeble offense, measured in runs. That would be the guys dressing in the same locker room as he is. When he faced the only AL offense to score fewer runs than the Royals, he tossed perhaps his most dominant game, a 1-hit shutout of Seattle. Coincidentally, that was the last time Zack got a win. Since then, in two starts, he's given up 2 runs (1 earned) in 15 innings. His mates have backed him up with a total of 3 runs, and it took 23 innings to manage that.

I am about 75% certain the voters will do the right thing and give Zack his Cy Young award. But that's only because no pitcher in the AL this year is piling up wins. With a win today, Sabathia took the league lead over Verlander (and Scott Feldman of Texas) at 17. It looks like Greinke will get 4 more starts this year. If the Royals can just squeeze out a few runs for him and he gets to 15 or 16 wins, that ought to be enough. I hope. It would help if no one makes it to 20, since I'm afraid the old-fashioned types voting for the award couldn't resist the pull of a nice round number.

He Got Caught In The Spotlight

...but when we get to the end, he wants to start all over again.
(From "Stage Fright," Before The Flood)

The day Zack Greinke walked out of spring training with social anxiety disorder in February 2006, I heard about it in the car on the way home from work. I came in the house, flopped down on the couch and told The Amazing Michelle that I wasn't sure it was worth being a Royals fan anymore. I'm sure it was a long diatribe that invoked the names of past Royals pitching disappointments like Jim Pittsley, Jose Rosado, Dan Reichert, Chad Durbin and others. I couldn't believe that this seeming sure thing had apparently fallen through. And this was worse, because it wasn't an arm injury or just an inability to get hitters out. No, this was a mental issue. It seemed like there was no end to the bizarre ways the Royals franchise and fans could be let down.

This is not to belittle or diminish what Greinke was dealing with. I've battled depression and have family members with anxiety disorder. I can't imagine them going out and doing anything with thousands of people watching their every move. And I've certainly been in situations where I didn't want to be working there anymore and hated every minute. At that point in his life, by his own admission, Greinke hated baseball and just wanted to walk away.


I should add that, while I was of course concerned about the Royals, it saddened me to think that someone with so much obvious talent could be walking away from his ability at such a young age. Sure, he had struggled some in the previous season--that was a terrible team he was on, and he obviously was not happy with his situation. But to just walk away and give up on his gifts...well, it was upsetting.

Allard Baird and Buddy Bell may not have done the Royals many favors in their tenures, but we certainly owe them thanks for putting Greinke's personal needs ahead of the team's. It would have been easy for them to demand he stay with the team, but they let him have the time to work out his problems. So Greinke got treatment, and slowly but surely came back to baseball.

He showed plenty of promise last season, but this year Greinke has been simply amazing. Three years ago, on that day that seemed to be the lowest low in Royals' history, it seemed impossible that the story would turn out well. But here we are. Greinke has five wins, is leading all of baseball with a 0.50 ERA, and is tied with Johan Santana for the major league lead in strikeouts. And of course, there's this:




I used to worry about how Greinke would handle the pressure of being the Royals' ace, or how he would react if the Royals were in a pennant race or even the playoffs. Now, I don't worry about the former. And if Greinke keeps pitching anywhere close to this level, I think the Royals have a good chance at the latter. And I think Zack will be just fine then, too.

I'm Richer By Far

...with a satisfied mind.
(From "A Satisfied Mind," Saved)

This is a happy day, Royals fans! Zack Greinke has signed a contract extension through 2012. As far as I'm concerned, this is the best move Dayton Moore has made as GM. The Star reports Greinke will receive $38 million over the four years, but the contract is backloaded; $27 million of that will be due in 2011 and 2012.

This is such a refreshing change for Royals fans; our team has found a talented youngster and will keep him two years beyond when he would have been a free agent.

So rejoice, KC! And now it's time to embrace Greinke; he wanted to stay here, and he's ours.

Buckets Of Rain

..buckets of tears, got all them buckets coming out of my ears.
(From "Buckets of Rain," Blood on the Tracks)

There is something perversely beautiful about a rain delay at Kauffman Stadium, or I suppose at any MLB park. But in my limited travels around the majors, The K is the only place I've experienced one. This week, we got a two-fer. Two games, two rain delays. And two losses, which had me rethinking the optimism expressed in previous posts.

Saturday night started off well enough, with Dan Quisenberry's son throwing out the first pitch (in honor of Dan Quisenberry Bobblehead Night). It was warm, but a pleasant breeze blew in from the east, making it a fairly enjoyable summer evening. The skies were overcast, and about the fourth inning we could see darker clouds in the west, through the openings between the top of the upper deck and the roof. Members of the grounds crew assembled behind the tarp. Taking all these factors into account, we moved to higher ground, under the roof that covers the back third of the upper deck.

It wasn't long before the rains came, the grounds crew sprinted out to cover the field (after having some practice Tuesday night in our previous rain delay) and play was halted. All we could do was watch the rain fall, in heavy sheets illuminated by the stadium lights. Seats just two or three rows in front of us were getting drenched, and even pelted by some small hailstones. Yet we remained mostly dry, except for the occasional wind gust spraying us with a fine mist.

The Royals soon put that lovely new hi-def scoreboard to good use, showing us the Tigers-White Sox telecast (without announcers). There we sat, watching baseball, listening to the rain pelt the roof and enjoying the cooler temperatures.

But all good things must end. The rain passed and the game resumed. The Royals managed to tie the score in the fifth, then let the game slip through their hands, almost literally, when they failed to catch a popup in the eighth. Given new life, Tampa Bay scored two runs, tacked on one more in the ninth, and got themselves a much-needed win.

One of the more frustrating things about the Royals this year is that, in spring training, there was supposed to be a renewed emphasis on fundamentals. Now, I don't really believe fundamentals are that helpful in today's game, especially in the American League. They can't hurt, but the best way to win is to have good players. If you don't have good players, then you start talking about fundamentals. The emphasis on fundamentals would be OK if the Royals could actually execute them. But this year has been a steady stream of bad baserunning, dropped popups, terrible bunts, and of course, no strike zone judgment whatsoever. Perhaps the Royals would have a few more wins if they were fundamentally sound, but that still wouldn't be enough to get them a division title. But it's the principle; we were told this would be a fundamentally sound team, and it is obviously not.

Forget fundamentals, the way for the Royals to get good is to develop good players. The jury is still out on many of these current Royals, although I have heard a lot of hand-wringing about Alex Gordon and Billy Butler. They have had disappointing years, after showing some promise in 2007. I think Royals fans need to take a step back and realize they are 24 and 22, respectively. Butler especially has shown more flashes of his talent since the All-Star Break, hitting four homers in the last 10 games after having two before the break. And it's true that Zack Greinke is also 24, but he is also in his fourth full season, so his development should be a little further along.