Tomorrow Is Never What It's Supposed To Be

(from "Don't Fall Apart On Me Tonight," Infidels)

It's easy to say now, but back in January when the Royals announced the "Our Time" slogan for this season, I was a little worried. I didn't think it was a bad slogan, just a bit presumptuous. My first thought was that if I were a Detroit Tigers fan, I'd be laughing my butt off at that. But even more than that, it seemed to me like it was tempting fate just a little bit. Like any Royals fan, I was excited for this season, although my heart liked the team's chances a lot more than my head did.

Despite the emphasis on statistical analysis these days (an emphasis I definitely support), there are things that can't be quantified. Things like...whatever you want to call it: karma, reaping what you sow, or just getting what's coming to you. And a franchise with one winning season in the last 17 proclaiming that they are going to win right now seems more than a little hubristic to me.

Obviously, I can't say that a slogan caused the rash of injuries that has befallen the Royals in spring training so far. After last year's basically injury-free campaign, they were probably due to have a major injury or two this year. But it's a little concerning that the season is two weeks away and the Royals are already down two catchers and a closer.

Joakim Soria's (probable) impending Tommy John surgery will get the most attention around baseball, but Salvador Perez's torn knee ligament and the possibility he could miss three months is a bigger deal to me. Between Jonathan Broxton and Greg Holland, I think the Royals can cover for the loss of Soria pretty easily. Closer is an overrated position, but Broxton has experience there and Holland was quite good last year (and has been excellent this spring, too). Heck, it might be helpful for the future if Holland gets some experience closing games this year.

The injury to Perez really hurts. Here's a player whom the Royals thought so highly of that just a few weeks ago, they signed him to a five-year contract after only 39 major-league games. For someone so young , he certainly seems to have the full respect of the pitching staff and the coaches. It's hard to replace someone like that, even if it's only for three months.

The Royals proved how hard it is by trading for Humberto Quintero and outfielder Jason Bourgeois on Tuesday. Quintero has a reputation as a good defensive catcher, but he can't hit at all. He'll split time with Brayan Pena until Perez is back. Pena can hit a little but isn't much defensively, but even if the Royals combined the best attributes of both, I don't think they would match what Perez can do. To me, that puts a serious dent in "Our Time."

The addition of Bourgeois is a little puzzling to me. Here's a 30-year-old outfielder who can run well, play all three outfield positions (and has played second base, too!), doesn't walk much, and put up an 89 OPS+ last year. I think the Royals already have that guy, and his name is Mitch Maier (and Maier has the advantage of batting left-handed, too). When you compare their career numbers, it's hard to see how Bourgeois has any advantage over Maier:

Bourgeois: 192 games, .262/.307/.324, 2 HRs, 22 RBI, 46 SB

Maier: 328 games, .253/.332/.346, 8 HR, 86 RBI, 13 SB

It will be interesting to see if the Royals view Bourgeois as an alternative to Maier, or if the consider him organizational depth. He probably is ahead of Jarrod Dyson in the pecking order, but it's hard to see how he's clearly better than Maier. He likely has more foot speed, which is always nice in Kauffman Stadium's spacious outfield, but Maier seems to be a better hitter. It is possible the Royals could keep both and only have Yuniesky Betancourt as a backup infielder.

In the meantime, we have to hope that the injury bug moves on from Surprise. The Royals already faced an uphill battle to win the division before this rash of injuries, so the possibility of it really being "Our Time" was small to begin with. Any more injuries to key players could be the end of that idea before the season even begins.

I'm Just Sittin' On The Shelf

(From "All Over You")

Are the Royals using their bench enough?

I think the notion of a "set lineup" is not very realistic. Most players need a day of rest here and there, plus injuries--even if they are minor--are almost inevitable over 6 months of baseball. And normally catchers do not play day games after night games. So, while there are certainly regulars and a batting order that gets used the most, it is unlikely that a team will run the same order out there more than 20-25 times in a season. This is probably even truer in the American League, where a team can give that slugging outfielder or first baseman a game at DH and "rest" him that way.

But the Royals, with one-third of the season gone, seem intent on turning that conventional wisdom on its head. Maybe they've decided using the same nine players every day is the new market inefficiency.

This isn't a sermon on which batting order the Royals should use. Lots of studies by smarter people than me have decided that lineup order doesn't greatly effect a team's offensive output. The Royals could probably help themselves there by hitting David DeJesus first and Mike Aviles second.

No, this is more about the Royals basically ignoring Brayan Pena this season. Or about Mitch Maier needing Rick Ankiel's injury to get a chance. Or a mindset that keeps Kila Ka'aihue in Omaha.

In 56 games this season before Saturday, the Royals have used a batting order of Podsednik, Aviles, DeJesus, Butler, Guillen, Callaspo, Maier, Betancourt, Kendall a total of 10 times. I could say in 21 games this season, since Ned Yost went with that order in his first four games as manager, and he has been responsible for all 10 of those uses. You have to go back to 1989 to find an order the Royals used more frequently in one season (and that order was used 14 times).

I should add that I don't have major objections to that lineup. I would move Aviles to shortstop and put Chris Getz in at second base, but it's obvious the Royals love them some Yuniesky Betancourt. And hey, Yuni hasn't been a complete train wreck on offense so far this season. He even has managed to get his Ultimate Zone Rating up to 0.0 instead of last year's horrific -11.4. The problem is, this is probably about the best we can ever expect from Betancourt, and it's essentially a league-average shortstop.

Anyway, not only do the Royals use the same batting order every night, it seems like they are intent on having a team full of Cal Ripkens--playing every inning of every game. The Royals have six of the top 50 AL players in innings played. No one else has that many. Jason Kendall leads all AL catchers in innings played by a wide margin (65). He has been in there for 92.2% of all innings the Royals have played. That seems odd for a 36-year-old catcher. As a result of this, we still don't know if Brayan Pena can be a useful major league catcher. Sure, he hasn't played particularly well when he's been in there, but it might be tough to find a groove when you play 39 innings in two months.

To be fair, Kendall has been decent. He has no power, but he's done a decent job of getting on base. Defensively, he has at least helped the Royals cut down significantly on the wild pitches and passed balls that were such problems last year. The team has gone from 89 and 14 in 2009 to 17 and 2 this season, respectively. And he is throwing at basestealers at the same rate (25%) as Royals catchers did last year. I would just like to see Pena get more of a shot.

All over the field, there are Royals who have played practically every out this season. Alberto Callaspo has played 97.8% of the team's innings; he would be third in the AL at third base if he hadn't played 99 innings at second base. Billy Butler has played 97.4% of the innings; he is third in the league for first basemen. Scott Podsednik (91.8%, second in the league in left field), Betancourt (91.6%, 6th in the league at shortstop) and David DeJesus (91.2%, fifth in the league in right field) are all in the top 50 overall in innings. Even Jose Guillen has gotten in the act, starting 55 of the 56 games and pinch-hitting (and playing right field) in the other one.

Part of the problem is the Royals' insistence on carrying eight relief pitchers, which they have done for a good chunk of this season. Even now, with a more normal seven relievers, they don't have a true backup at first base, nor do they have anyone on the bench who you would want to give Guillen a day off at DH. This is where Ka'aihue could help. Like most Royals fans, I want to see Kila get a shot, a real shot, at the major league level. Although if the Royals are going to keep using their current philosophy of lineup management, perhaps he is better served getting regular playing time at Omaha. Still, as a left-handed hitter, he would be a nice option to have on the bench.

My main worry is that these guys will crash sometime in August if they don't get a day off here and there. I'm not calling for Willie Bloomquist or Wilson Betemit to get more playing time; in fact, I think the Royals are doing a better job this year of not overusing Bloomquist. It just seems to me that a bench of Kila, Bloomquist, Pena, Getz/Betancourt and an outfielder from Omaha (either David Lough or Jordan Parraz; the Royals have said they want to keep Alex Gordon there to keep working on being an outfielder, and I'm inclined to agree with that idea) would give Yost the ability to give everyone a little rest, plus some lineup and strategic flexibility.

Did I Hear Someone Tell A Lie?

...did I hear someone's distant cry?
(from "Love Sick," Time Out Of Mind)

“I feel like if you start mixing and matching too early it sends a bad message"--Trey Hillman, on changes to the lineup, as quoted in Saturday's Kansas City Star.

Five games into the season, and I'm already questioning Trey Hillman's player usage. While his quote above may not technically be a lie, I do think it's a questionable statement, based on Hillman's past tendencies. I also think it's a huge disservice to the Royals' offense, which everyone knew coming into the season would be a problem. While five games is certainly a small sample size, the Royals as a team are hitting .265/.324/.392 and have scored only 17 runs.

Meanwhile, we're still waiting for the Royals' two best hitters in spring training, Mike Aviles and Mitch Maier, to make their first starts of the season. In fact, the two of them have only combined for one plate appearance--Aviles pinch-hit in the 9th inning Saturday night. It's true that spring training stats usually don't mean much, but Aviles hit .471 in 51 spring at-bats and Maier hit .475 in 59 at-bats. More importantly, each seemed to be hitting every ball hard, which is really all you can ask of a batter. As the Royals headed north to start the season, it looked like they had two somewhat surprising offensive leaders.

Now, here we are, almost a week into the season, and these two (as well as backup catcher Brayan Pena, who hit .302 in spring training) haven't started one game. Maier and Pena haven't even been in a game yet, which is especially odd in Pena's case, since 36-year-old catcher Jason Kendall was allowed to start a day game after a night game. Aviles hasn't had more than one at-bat in a game since April 1. Obviously Aviles and Maier won't hit for those averages over a full season, but one has to wonder what the lack of playing time will do to their timing at the plate. Hillman may have already torpedoed these three players' offensive seasons by not getting them involved before now.

In Maier's case, it's a little easier to see why he hasn't played yet. Even with his great spring, Maier was likely going to be a fourth outfielder. And Rick Ankiel has been the Royals' best offensive weapon so far, while Scott Podsednik and David DeJesus have both been at least solid hitters. However, Jose Guillen has started off slowly as the DH, so perhaps Maier could have helped a little more there.

As for Aviles, it's true he is still getting his arm strength back after Tommy John surgery last year. But his spring training effort certainly made it look like 2008 Mike Aviles was back. You might remember that guy--he put up a .325/.354/.480 line after finally forcing his way into the lineup in early June. A Royals team that had been 23-37 before that day went 52-50 the rest of the season. You'd think Hillman would remember that, since he was the guy who rather begrudgingly put Aviles in the lineup to begin with. That was only after Tony Pena Jr. had finally proven to everyone (the Royals of course being the last ones to realize it) that he could not hit. Then Esteban German was given a few starts at shortstop--when he didn't hit right away, it was finally Aviles' chance.

Now Aviles is sitting behind Yuniesky Betancourt, who has proven to everyone (except, of course, the Royals) that he can't hit, his Opening Day homer notwithstanding. If the Royals don't want to play him because they think he can't throw from shortstop, then he really should be in Omaha getting regular duty. If they want him on the major league roster, they need to find a place to play him. Chris Getz and Alberto Callaspo have both hit pretty well, but Aviles needs to be playing.

It would be nice to see Pena get a shot, too. Kendall has hit .313 so far, but he has little power. We saw last year that Pena can hit for power, and this lineup could certainly use it. I know the Royals don't think much of Pena's defense and love Kendall for his, but right now this offense needs some help. And why is a 36-year-old allowed to catch a day game after a night game, even in the first week of the season?

Last year, Hillman waited two whole games before shuffling up his lineup. In 2008, he changed things up in the 5th game. In two 162-game seasons as manager, Hillman has used 134 lineups (in 2008) and 141 (in 2009). And suddenly he's a spokesman for lineup consistency? I don't get it. I just don't get it.