Give Me A Minute, Let Me Get It Together

...I just gotta pick myself up off the floor

(From "Senor (Tales of Yankee Power)," Street Legal)

He was a promising young hitter, although it took him a couple of seasons to get out of Class A ball. After splitting a season between AA and AAA, he was sent back to Triple A the next season, although he did get a September callup. An injury basically wiped out the following season, but he finally stuck in the majors in his sixth professional season. However, he only managed a .248/.313/.442 line in 182 plate appearances, good for a 97 OPS+. It would take three more seasons and 266 games before he found his niche, at age 28.

Our mystery player is one of the greatest hitters in Royals history: Hal McRae. And I hope his story will encourage Royals fans to be a little more patient with Kila Ka'aihue.

The point of this exercise is not to say that Kila is the next Hal McRae, but rather to show that even very good hitters can get off to slow starts at the major league level. And frankly, Ka'aihue's minor league stats compare favorably to McRae's.

It has been frustrating to watch Kila struggle during the first three weeks of the 2011 season. Just like it was probably frustrating to watch McRae hit .188/299/.328 in his first 18 games in 1973. Or George Brett hit .242/.324/.409 in his first 18 games in 1978. But 18 games is just not enough to give up on a guy, particularly a guy who has only played the equivalent of half of one season in the majors, like Kila has.

I know, it seems like Kila has been around forever. We've been hearing about him and looking forward to seeing him play since his monster 2008 season, split between Northwest Arkansas and Omaha. But really, he has only been a major leaguer for 82 games (going into Saturday night's game at Texas). After making him wait behind Ross Gload, Mike Jacobs, and Jose Guillen, I think the Royals owe it to Ka'aihue to give him at least into June to prove himself.

I understand why fans might want to push Kila aside. Both Eric Hosmer and Clint Robinson are off to hot starts at Omaha. The major league team looks like it might have a shot at actually contending for a title this year in a mediocre division, and division champs don't have first basemen who hit .188. But the same caveat applies to Hosmer and Robinson--both are in their first seasons at Omaha. If they can keep up their hitting for a longer period of time, then yes, figure out a way to make room for them in the majors. I don't think it's really fair to them (or to Kila) to bring them up now and expect them to keep the Royals in contention.

Furthermore, I would be more concerned with Kila's slow start if he were not still drawing walks. Part of the reason Royals fans have been excited by his minor league numbers was that sterling on-base percentage. In an organization that has done a great job talking about the importance of getting on base a lot, but has not been so good at getting players who actually, you know, get on base a lot, Kila stood out. So far this year, Ka'aihue is tied for second on the team with 10 walks. He's still exhibiting a good understanding of the strike zone, which gives me confidence he will hit at some point. Part of his problem is the team-high 21 strikeouts, which is rather high for a player who only struck out 39 times in 206 plate appearances last season.

Also, Kila's luck hasn't been the greatest this season, with a .256 batting average on balls in play (BABIP). Since a normal BABIP is around .300, I would expect his average to go up. And as the weather gets warmer, his power should improve too.

The time is coming when the Royals will have to decide which two of the four 1B/DH types they have between KC and Omaha they want to keep. But that time is not now. Kila may need a change of scenery to hit, or he may just need a little more time to get his game going. Getting rid of him now, though, would be selling when his stock is at its lowest. And it would be a mistake.

Thoughts On The Futures Game

John Lamb pitching to Eric Hosmer. Mike Montgomery pitching to Wil Myers. Christian Colon fielding Johnny Giavotella's grounder and throwing him out at first. Is this a bizarre dream? No. Is it a sample of a Red Sox-Yankees game from 2020? God, I hope not. In this instance, it definitely is not. No, this is the Royals Futures Game, a matchup between the Northwest Arkansas Naturals and Omaha Storm Chasers. And it's a wonderful thing.

The Amazing Michelle (that's my way better half if you're new to this blog) and I spent most of our Saturday at the old ballpark, taking in the Royals-Angels game and then the Futures Game. Thankfully, it was a beautiful day for baseball, and the major league team played well. This was my first in-person look at the Royals, and I was pleasantly surprised. Of course, it's hard to tell anything from one game, but it does seem like the Royals will be better defensively and certainly in the bullpen. Yes, the defense has struggled a bit in the first few games, but I think most of that has been Mike Aviles, and I believe he is better with the glove than he has shown so far. We've seen him play a decent shortstop, so he should be able to handle third base. And if he does keep making two errors a game, he won't be playing third very long.

Meanwhile, Alcides Escobar is a lot of fun to watch. Especially after years of watching Angel Berroa, Tony Pena Jr. and Yuniesky Betancourt. It's just nice to not have to hold your breath every time a ball is hit towards the shortstop.

And this bullpen. So far, it looks outstanding. You may remember that last year, for the first month of the season, the bullpen was the weakest link by far on a bad team. That pretty much torpedoed any hope that existed at the start of the season. This year, knock wood, that looks like it won't happen. Aaron Crow looked darn near unhittable yesterday. And I think after three games, Angels manager Mike Scioscia would trade his entire bullpen for the Royals' relievers. So that's a positive. And if the rookies in the bullpen are any indication of the talent on the way to the majors, that's a big positive.

It was a lot of fun to see some of that talent actually on the Kauffman Stadium field. I'm no scout, but I have been watching baseball for a good 30 years now, and I saw lots of things to like. Once again, it's hard to tell much from one game, but I really like Mike Montgomery. Pitching for Omaha, he held Northwest Arkansas hitless for four innings. Montgomery was throwing hard (mid-90s), yet displayed a terrific breaking ball a few times. I also like his delivery--it seems compact, simple, and repeatable. It will be fun to follow him at Omaha this year and see how he does.

Overall, I thought all the pitching looked good. Chris Dwyer struggled a bit, and Danny Duffy walked 3 batters in his 3 innings (while striking out 5, so he wasn't terrible, just a bit wild). Of course, the flip side is that the hitters didn't do a whole lot. David Lough hit the game's only homer--I hope he gets a shot at the majors sometime soon. Johnny Giavotella had a couple of walks and a stolen base, plus a nice defensive play. The two hitters everyone wanted to see, Mike Moustakas and Eric Hosmer, only went 1-8 combined. I think they might have been trying a little too hard to put on a show. I'm not worried about them--what they've done in their minor league careers so far tells me they can hit.

Kudos to whomever came up with the idea for this game. The Royals should definitely make this a yearly tradition, even after this group of prospects is in the majors. Let's face it, this franchise's success will always depend on a strong farm system. So why not give fans in KC a chance to see them and get to know them? Plus, it's got to be good for the prospects to get an opportunity to play in a major league stadium. Perhaps it will reduce the nerves just a bit if and when they actually reach the majors. I really can't see any downside to having this game every year. I would hope the Royals promote it more in the future--I know a couple of fans who didn't know anything about when I talked to them this week, and these weren't casual fans either. But if this game does become an annual event, I suppose it will become well known.

The Best Is Always Yet To Come

...that's what they explain to me.

(From "If Dogs Run Free," New Morning)

So here we are, hours away from the beginning of the 2011 season. I don't think anyone anywhere expects this season to be a success, despite the Royals' excellent spring training record. But I am excited about this season. The transformation of this franchise is finally underway. Consider this: 16 players on this year's Opening Day roster were not on last year's Opening Day roster (the holdovers: Mike Aviles, Billy Butler, Kyle Davies, Chris Getz, Luke Hochevar, Mitch Maier, Brayan Pena, Joakim Soria, and Robinson Tejeda. Alex Gordon was on the DL last year, while Jason Kendall is on it this year. Other than that, the roster has been turned over. The bullpen will feature four rookies, and two more guys who are essentially rookies (Sean O'Sullivan and Kanekoa Texeira).

This is only the beginning; we're going to see more rookies and second-year players joining the roster this year. The position players have more experience, but there's a good chance several of them will be gone by Opening Day 2012 (the only position player currently under contract for next year is Butler). So if somebody is lousy, or if a top prospect is ready, the roster flexibility is there to do what needs to be done.

I wouldn't say the win-loss record doesn't matter this year--the goal is always to win. But this season, a close second might be how well the fleet of rookies and second-year players perform. Even if 2011 is another 90-loss season, Royals fans can look for youngsters who seem like they "get it"--even the best rookies will struggle at times, but if they can play and then make adjustments when the league figures them out, then we'll know we've potentially got something.

That said, I think the two key players this season are Luke Hochevar and Alex Gordon. Although they haven't exactly earned it on the field at the major league level, both have been put in important positions to start the season, with Hochevar getting the Opening Day start and Gordon set to hit third in the lineup. I really like these moves. At some point, top draft picks have to stop being prospects and start being key cogs in the machine. If these two can step up to the roles the Royals have assigned them, the season may be better than anyone expects. If they can't, it may be time to cut bait.

As for predictions, I'm thinking the Royals go 72-90. I imagine they'll finish last, although they certainly could be better than Cleveland. My hope is that a seemingly improved defense will help a less-than-stellar rotation, and that the offense will be better than last year's. The Royals gave up 845 runs last year, worst in the AL and 130 over the league average. Cutting that down to around 800 would be a good start, even though it would still be too high. Meanwhile, they scored 676 runs; getting to around 725 this year would be a good sign.

Youth Movements: Is This One Different?

These are exciting times for Royals fans. Or you would think so, anyway.

It seems like you can't watch or listen to or read any sort of baseball media these days without hearing how great the Royals' farm system looks. I assume most of you are familiar with the details, but if not, let's just say there's a good chance the Royals have the best collection of minor league talent assembled in recent memory. Whether you're a scout or a stathead, whether you like a team built on pitching and speed or a team built on power and offense, this system has something for you.

But recently it seems like there is a mild undercurrent of, I don't know, distrust? A reluctance to embrace the immense potential in the minor leagues. A fear that, like so many other things in recent Royals history, this too will go wrong, and possibly spectacularly wrong. I sense this dread coming from both casual fans and from some of the more hardcore fans (the ones who frequent blogs and message boards, for example). The former may not know all the names that have us hardcore fans salivating, but they seem convinced that the Royals will be trading them all off within the next two years. The latter seem convinced that every single prospect will fail to live up to expectations, and that it doesn't matter even if a few of them do work out, because Dayton Moore is not a good enough evaluator of major league talent to add the proper supplemental pieces.

I do understand the trepidation. It is true that most prospects fail to pan out completely. For every Billy Butler or Zack Greinke, there's an Alex Gordon, Mark Teahen, Kyle Davies or Jeremy Affeldt. Or worse--all those guys are roughly average major leaguers. Not stars by any stretch, but they do have a role and even a deep team would probably find a use for them. For every Butler or Greinke, there are even more guys who are total busts. It is probable that one or two out of the Royals' top 10 prospects will suffer from injuries, inconsistency, or inability to hit a curveball. Or all three. Of the other top 10 guys, two or three more will likely fail to reach their full potential for whatever reason, but will hang on in the majors for a while. The rest will be solid players, and perhaps one or two will achieve stardom.

But here's the thing: the Royals probably have twice as many top prospects as anybody. That is to say, if their entire top 10 list started the season in the majors and all the folks doing the rankings had to pick a completely new top 10, that list would still be impressive. Rany Jazayerli has made this point far better (and with far more authority) than I could, but I certainly believe the talent is there to make the Royals a very good team in the near future.

As for the notion that the Royals will be trading off all these players in the near future, I think the team has proven in recent years that they will sign talented young players to contract extensions if they are willing. Greinke, Butler, and Joakim Soria are proof of that. And yes, the Royals traded Greinke. But they did sign him to one contract extension first, and Zack apparently wasn't interested in signing another. So instead they turned him into four prospects and even got rid of Yuniesky Betancourt in the process.

On the other hand, the Royals probably will eventually have to trade some of these players, either to fill a need or to clear payroll. The way the Royals will maintain success in the future is by having a core of young (and therefore inexpensive) but talented players supplementing the older players the Royals have signed to extensions or added through free agency. But the notion the Royals will be trading all of this young talent in the next couple of years is just silly. We know from the past couple of years that David Glass is willing to have a $70 million payroll, yet this year's will be around half that. The flexibility is there to lock up any young player the Royals want to.

Meanwhile, it is true that Dayton Moore has made some, um, questionable free agent signings and trades. Yet in the last year, he has seemed to learn from some of his bigger mistakes. Thus, Jeff Francoeur and Melky Cabrera got one-year deals, not three-year deals. And nearly every trade he made at the trade deadline last year and after has received at least some praise. Plus, it seems odd to say that the same scouting department that has amassed this minor league talent is incapable of properly evaluating major leaguers.

I think once it becomes clear the Royals are on the upswing, it will be easier to convince free agents to come here. Look at most of the free agents the Royals have signed the last few years. Many of them were coming off injury or some sort of ineffectiveness. Essentially, the Royals have become the Last Chance Saloon for many a free agent, a chance to cash a few more paychecks before moving on to life after baseball. I'd argue the only real in-his-prime, could-actually-be-useful free agent Moore has signed is Gil Meche. Now, the Royals weren't smart enough to keep him healthy for all five years, but they did get good value for that money before he got hurt.

Of course, part of the fear is that we have heard this "youth movement" argument many times, and been burned nearly every time. I checked baseball-reference.com's franchise encyclopedia for the Royals, which includes the average age for batters and pitchers for each season. In the absence of an average age for the entire roster, I added those numbers together for each season. Since the 1994 players' strike, that total has decreased by one year five different times.

The first two times were the 1995 (-1.1) and 1996 (-1) seasons, which makes sense. In the aftermath of the strike, the Royals either foresaw the coming salary explosion and refused to join in, or threw in the towel, depending on your point of view. Ewing Kauffman's death contributed to this, as the group tasked with selling the team made an effort to keep payroll low. I am guessing this is the first time the Royals uttered the words "youth movement," but a look at the 1995 roster especially shows a large number of veterans. Still, these two years were the first real chances for guys like Johnny Damon, Joe Randa, Michael Tucker, Jose Rosado and Jim Pittsley (with Glendon Rusch coming along in 1997). So what happened? Rosado and Pittsley ended up getting hurt, while Rusch never really lived up to his potential with the Royals. The Royals traded Randa for Jeff King and Jay Bell, then reacquired him two years later for basically nothing. They traded Tucker for Jermaine Dye. Position player-wise, they should have had a good foundation. But without Rosado and Pittsley, the pitching got old. There just wasn't enough pitching, especially in that era of inflated offense, for the Royals to succeed.

Next up, 1999 (-3.8). This group of prospects included Carlos Beltran, Jermaine Dye, Mike Sweeney, Jeremy Giambi, and Carlos Febles. But once again, the pitching failed to materialize. The only real impact hurler ended up being Jeff Suppan. If you were a Royals fan then, you probably remember 1999-2000 as a long stretch of 11-10 games, usually with the Royals' bullpen blowing a big lead. The Royals had their two best run-scoring years in 1999 and 2000, but gave up even more runs than they allowed. Once again, a lack of pitching undercut this particular youth movement.

The most recent wave of youth was in 2005 (-2.8) and 2007 (-2.3). Yet this was offset by a rise of 3.9 years in 2006. If you're reading this, I'm guessing you're familiar with this group: Billy Butler, Alex Gordon, Mark Teahen, Joakim Soria, J.P. Howell, and Leo Nunez, among others. Of course, we're still seeing how this group will turn out, but you will notice two of those pitchers are already gone.

If you are a skeptical Royals fan, whether you are a diehard or a casual fan, you've earned it. The promises we've heard, the pleas for patience from three different GMs, the signings of past-their-prime free agents, all have probably been even more damaging to the fanbase than the three failed youth movements I've listed above. But this time certainly feels different to me. I don't remember the Royals' farm system getting this much attention ever before, certainly on a national level. There are good hitters and good pitchers on the way, and lots of them. I don't want to tell you to trust the process, but perhaps if you've hung in there this long, you can hang in there a little bit longer. Some of those prospects are going to reach the majors this year; my advice is to enjoy watching them develop.

Catching Up

It's been a busy couple of weeks in Royals land. The 2011 starting rotation seems set now, with the addition of Jeff Francis and the re-signing of Bruce Chen. And then of course, the rather surprising retirement of Gil Meche opened up a bullpen spot, as well as gave the Royals a sudden surplus of cash.

I really like the Francis signing. It's only a one-year contract, and it's only $2 million (plus $2 million in incentives). Despite some nice seasons for the Rockies, Francis comes cheap because he has had shoulder issues. But he is entering his second year since his surgery, so there is hope that those issues are behind him. Even if they aren't, the Royals wisely invested little time and relatively little cash in him.

This is exactly the tack the Royals should be taking this offseason and in the next few. Look for low-cost players who have shown ability in the recent past but are available due to injury or underperformance. It is inevitable that even with the depth of talent in the farm system, there will be holes that need to be filled. The best example of this kind of gamble working out is Tampa Bay's signing of Carlos Pena in 2007. Pena had been on four teams in six seasons, and the Rays signed him to a one-year, $800,000 contract. A minor-league contract, even. Forty-six homers later, the Rays had the good sense to sign him to an extension. The next year, they were in the World Series.

I'm also glad the Royals brought back Chen, especially since they only signed him for one year and $2 million, plus $1.5 million in incentives. Chen was decent last year and even had the best ERA+ of any starting pitcher (his 101 was just above Zack Greinke's 100). He was a bit lucky last year, but even if he is ineffective as a starter, he has experience as a reliever and can contribute there. And if he can't contribute in either capacity, the Royals can get rid of him without much of a sunk cost in terms of dollars or time. And again, they are not blocking a spot for the long-term.

In sadder news, I was absolutely stunned to hear Meche was retiring with one year left on his contract. I don't think it's too cynical to suggest most players would go through the motions for one more year to get $12 million--it would be very tempting. I have a lot of respect for Meche, and I wish him the best. I certainly wish the Royals had been more careful with him, but let's hope they at least learned something from the experience.

Meche's departure opens up another spot in the bullpen, probably for one of the many young pitchers who are knocking on the major league door. So that's a nice benefit. Furthermore, the Royals now have an extra $12 million (what Meche was owed this year). After an Opening Day payroll of $75 million last year, the Royals will likely start this season with a payroll around half that. I couldn't believe the complaining I heard on local sports talk radio on the way home from work today. I don't see how the Royals are in a bad situation here. They are young, and likely to get younger over the next few seasons as more and more prospects reach the majors. We know they are willing and able to spend roughly $40 million more than they will this year to fill whatever needs they have. In the meantime, they can use some of that surplus to further their scouting or Latin America signing budgets. This is good news.

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On a totally unrelated note, I'm so glad the Royals are acknowledging their online community. For being such a crappy franchise for so long, the Royals certainly have a great base of bloggers, and they are finally recognizing that with their Digital Digest setup at this week's Fan Fest. I must confess, I was disappointed not to be chosen to participate. But I am happy for the ones who were picked and have no problem with any of the selections. I'm really looking forward to reading about their experiences.

I'm grateful that I can be a small part of such a strong blogging community. I do this mainly as a lark--I always enjoyed writing about sports for my college newspaper, and when I started this blog it was in large part because I missed the writing process. And I always love discussing the Royals and baseball in general. Personally, I would never expect (or want) to get a press credential or sit in the press box, but I am hopeful that someday soon, the really good, quality bloggers who cover the Royals (and other teams) will be included in that if they want to be. This is not to slight the traditional media outlets that normally do a good job covering the team, but more to include the talented non-traditional outlets that are also excellent sources of info and analysis.

The Past Don't Control You

...But the future's like a roulette wheel spinning.
Deep down inside, you know you need a whole new beginning.
(From "Ye Shall Be Changed," The Bootleg Series Vol. 1-3)

And with that, Dayton Moore's transformation of the Royals major-league roster is complete. "That," of course, is Sunday's Zack Greinke trade. Moore took over the Royals in the middle of the 2006 season. Now the only player currently on the roster who played for the Royals in 2006 is outfielder Mitch Maier, and he only had 15 plate appearances that season.

Unfortunately, the major league results from 2006 and 2011 are likely to be similar. However, it looks more and more like the major league results from 2012 and beyond will be much better. The Greinke trade is one more building block for that future.

I think the Royals made a good trade. Not a great one, but a good one. First off, replacing Yuni Betancourt with Alcides Escobar has to be a positive. True, Escobar doesn't have the occasional power Yuni has shown. But they both posted a .288 OBP last year. While that is terrible, I'd rather have an above-average defender whose offense should improve than have, well, Yuni.

Escobar did not have a good rookie season in 2010. But he was a highly-touted prospect and is likely to improve. The good news is, if his defense is as good as advertised, he won't need to be an adept offensive player to have a positive impact. He won't be a free agent until after the 2015 season. If the Royals' scouting is correct, they have found their shortstop for the long-term. This is a good thing.

Then there's Lorenzo Cain. This is an intriguing addition to the now-crowded outfield situation. Cain hasn't shown a lot of power in the minors, but he has shown an ability to take a walk, steal some bases and play good defense in centerfield. Like Escobar, he could be a long-term solution.

I know little about the pitchers the Royals received (Jeremy Jeffress and Jake Odorizzi) except that Jeffress throws hard and both were considered among the Brewers' best prospects. In the pitching-heavy Royals system, it will be interesting to see where they both rank. It is nice that both are righties, as the Royals are as stocked as can be with lefties, it seems.

Meanwhile, life without Zack will not be fun, at least probably not for a year or two. The Royals' projected rotation for 2011 is not especially promising. And let's be honest, watching Zack pitch when he was dialed in was a lot of fun. Of course, getting Zack dialed in was sometimes a problem.

I know there was a lot of wailing and gnashing of teeth over this trade. There were a lot of comparisons to the Carlos Beltran trade in 2004. But to me, the most important thing to remember is that Greinke didn't want to play here anymore. Also, the Royals' farm system is light years ahead of what it was in 2004. Back then, the Royals should have taken the most talent they could get. Now, they can afford to be a little choosy. So they were. They traded a guy who didn't want to be here anymore and a guy no one wanted to be here anymore for two potential solutions at important defensive positions, a possible closer candidate someday (Jeffress) and a possible mid-rotation starter someday (Odorizzi). To me, that's a good trade for the long term. Now, I believe someday soon it will be the Royals' turn to trade prospects for an established player or two.

But Me, I Expected It To Happen

(From "Stuck Inside Of Mobile With The Memphis Blues Again," Blonde On Blonde)

Of course, everyone expected it to happen. People have expected the Royals to sign Jeff Francoeur pretty much from the day Dayton Moore took over as general manager. So the fact Moore returned from the winter meetings with Francoeur and Melky Cabrera as his big offseason acquisitions was certainly no surprise.

What does surprise me is that, after years of dreading the sight of Frenchy in Royal blue, the actual news didn't bother me that much. Look, Francoeur is not a good player. He probably won't even be an average player. For his career, he's put up a 91 OPS+, and that's been almost entirely in the weaker National League. He is famous for his lack of plate discipline, which is the last thing the Royals' offense needed.

On the other hand, here we have a player who will turn 27 in January, so he is theoretically in his prime. Here we have a player who has won a Gold Glove (admittedly, Gold Gloves are not always the best measuring stick for defensive ability; on the other hand, you normally have to have some defensive skill to win one). Here we have a player who hit 29 homers one season and 19 in another one. So he does have some ability. And he is a right-handed hitter, something the Royals did need (all the other outfielders on the roster are lefties or switch-hitters).

The question is, will Francoeur be able to reclaim those abilities? I would guess no, but there is a chance. Let's face it, being a Georgia native, having a tremendous rookie year, being on the cover of Sports Illustrated--there had to be a lot of pressure on Francoeur when he was a Brave. From there, he went to the Mets, which has to be a different sort of pressure. Perhaps he can relax a bit and just play as a Royal. And really, the Royals invested very little in finding out--a one-year, $2.5 million contract. I'm not worried about the $4 million mutual option for 2012; if Francoeur is somehow good in 2011, he'll likely decline the option and be a free agent, but if he is, well, Jeff Francoeur, the Royals will likely cut bait. Heck, if he is good in 2011, he might very well be traded in July, and if Moore can match some of those good-looking trades he made this past season, Francoeur might be worth the money.

Also, the Royals' paramount concern this offseason had to be clearing the way for the promising minor-leaguers they have. On a one-year contract, Francouer is not likely to block any prospects (in fact, corner outfield might be the system's biggest weakness at the moment). Basically, he's a placeholder.

Many of these arguments can also be applied to the Royals' other free-agent addition, Melky Cabrera. He obviously has ability--you don't get to start for the Yankees at age 21 if you aren't good. He hasn't blossomed into the player he looked like he could be back then, but he just turned 26. And the Royals invested even less in him than they did Francoeur--just $1.25 million for 2011.

I don't expect either Cabrera or Francoeur to make a major impact on the 2011 Royals. It's highly unlikely these two will lead KC to an AL Central title. Really, the best-case scenario is that both play relatively well and are traded in July for more prospects. And perhaps now Dayton Moore has gotten the Francoeur bug out of his system.