(From “Dead Man, Dead Man,” Shot of Love)
I find it funny (funny strange not funny ha-ha) sometimes that, in most aspects of life, I tend to be a pessimist. Yet, when it comes to the Kansas City Royals, an organization that has spent 20-some years screwing up the most basic decisions, a franchise that invariably chooses the worst option possible, I tend to be an optimist. I don’t know why this is, although I suspect it’s partially human nature and partially a coping mechanism.
I started writing this post on Tuesday, and was going to write about how that optimism may have finally met its match in the last week. I was ready to blast the Royals for trading Omaha relief pitcher Carlos Rosa to Arizona for shortstop prospect Rey Navarro, because I felt Rosa had a chance to help the Royals’ bullpen in the short-term. Meanwhile, Navarro will start his journey up the Royals’ ladder at Class A Wilmington. Also, while I admit I’m no expert on the minor leagues, the people who seem to be experts don’t seem to have a consensus on Navarro’s future, except he’s not much of a hitter. Then again, he’s only 20. While I know the Royals are not contenders this year, it would be nice to win as many games as possible, and I’d rather have found out if Rosa could help the bullpen than see the Royals waste money on another “big name” relief pitcher, like Kyle Farnsworth.
I also was going to blast the Royals for their handling of Alex Gordon. After giving him 12 whole games this year to prove himself, the #2 overall pick in the 2005 draft was sent to Omaha (bright spot: Mike Aviles finally gets called up and, hopefully, given an actual chance to play this time). Then came the real bombshell: the announcement that Gordon would be learning to play left field and first base at Omaha.
I don’t understand why the Royals seem to have it in for Gordon. I’m afraid they are going to start jerking him around much like they did with Mark Teahen, giving him a new position to learn every year, then wondering why he never hits like they think he should. I don’t know that there is a correlation between changing defensive positions and subpar offense, but I don’t think it helps a player concentrate on offense when he is constantly learning a new defensive position. It’s true that Gordon will probably never be a superstar like we all hoped, but he can still be a valuable major league third baseman (assuming he can stay healthy, which has certainly been a problem). Let’s not forget, he posted a 109 OPS+ when he was 24.
But here comes that stupid optimism again. My mind begins to entertain the possibilities…if Gordon can work himself into an acceptable defender in left field, I think he will hit well enough to be a contributor (for comparison, David DeJesus had a .781 OPS and 106 OPS+ as a left fielder last year, and in Gordon’s last full season, he had a .783 OPS and that 109 OPS+). Now you’re looking at a 2011 outfield of Gordon, Rick Ankiel (or Mitch Maier, if the Royals decline to bring Ankiel back), and DeJesus. Not too shabby.
And then, even more optimism. Have the Royals decided to give Mike Aviles a real shot at reclaiming his shortstop position? When he started the season on the major league roster, he got two token appearances. This time around, he waits one day, then gets a start (a productive one, with three hits and a homer). Miracle of miracles, he gets another start the next day. I think we all know that a healthy Aviles is going to hit much better than Yuniesky Betancourt, and probably field better too. The question now is, will the Royals let him prove that? An infield of Billy Butler, Chris Getz, Aviles and Alberto Callaspo is also not too shabby. And that doesn’t include Mike Moustakas, who has been tearing up the Texas League in Class AA and could conceivably be ready for his major league debut next year.
Finally, the cherry on top of this optimism sundae: after Ankiel went on the disabled list, the Royals actually called up Kila Ka’aihue for something more than a September appearance. I don’t know that he will play regularly, or even that the Royals will keep him in the majors after Ankiel comes off the DL. But I take this as a sign that he has finally made an impression on the Royals—after all, they could have easily called up an outfielder (or another relief pitcher). It would be nice to find out for sure if Kila can hit in the majors, as he could be a very affordable replacement for Jose Guillen next season.
Sigh. Perhaps one of these days I will finally get the optimism out of my system and join reality. Until then, though, I guess I will keep hoping for the best.
Wednesday, May 5, 2010
Saturday, April 10, 2010
Did I Hear Someone Tell A Lie?
...did I hear someone's distant cry?
(from "Love Sick," Time Out Of Mind)
“I feel like if you start mixing and matching too early it sends a bad message"--Trey Hillman, on changes to the lineup, as quoted in Saturday's Kansas City Star.
Five games into the season, and I'm already questioning Trey Hillman's player usage. While his quote above may not technically be a lie, I do think it's a questionable statement, based on Hillman's past tendencies. I also think it's a huge disservice to the Royals' offense, which everyone knew coming into the season would be a problem. While five games is certainly a small sample size, the Royals as a team are hitting .265/.324/.392 and have scored only 17 runs.
Meanwhile, we're still waiting for the Royals' two best hitters in spring training, Mike Aviles and Mitch Maier, to make their first starts of the season. In fact, the two of them have only combined for one plate appearance--Aviles pinch-hit in the 9th inning Saturday night. It's true that spring training stats usually don't mean much, but Aviles hit .471 in 51 spring at-bats and Maier hit .475 in 59 at-bats. More importantly, each seemed to be hitting every ball hard, which is really all you can ask of a batter. As the Royals headed north to start the season, it looked like they had two somewhat surprising offensive leaders.
Now, here we are, almost a week into the season, and these two (as well as backup catcher Brayan Pena, who hit .302 in spring training) haven't started one game. Maier and Pena haven't even been in a game yet, which is especially odd in Pena's case, since 36-year-old catcher Jason Kendall was allowed to start a day game after a night game. Aviles hasn't had more than one at-bat in a game since April 1. Obviously Aviles and Maier won't hit for those averages over a full season, but one has to wonder what the lack of playing time will do to their timing at the plate. Hillman may have already torpedoed these three players' offensive seasons by not getting them involved before now.
In Maier's case, it's a little easier to see why he hasn't played yet. Even with his great spring, Maier was likely going to be a fourth outfielder. And Rick Ankiel has been the Royals' best offensive weapon so far, while Scott Podsednik and David DeJesus have both been at least solid hitters. However, Jose Guillen has started off slowly as the DH, so perhaps Maier could have helped a little more there.
As for Aviles, it's true he is still getting his arm strength back after Tommy John surgery last year. But his spring training effort certainly made it look like 2008 Mike Aviles was back. You might remember that guy--he put up a .325/.354/.480 line after finally forcing his way into the lineup in early June. A Royals team that had been 23-37 before that day went 52-50 the rest of the season. You'd think Hillman would remember that, since he was the guy who rather begrudgingly put Aviles in the lineup to begin with. That was only after Tony Pena Jr. had finally proven to everyone (the Royals of course being the last ones to realize it) that he could not hit. Then Esteban German was given a few starts at shortstop--when he didn't hit right away, it was finally Aviles' chance.
Now Aviles is sitting behind Yuniesky Betancourt, who has proven to everyone (except, of course, the Royals) that he can't hit, his Opening Day homer notwithstanding. If the Royals don't want to play him because they think he can't throw from shortstop, then he really should be in Omaha getting regular duty. If they want him on the major league roster, they need to find a place to play him. Chris Getz and Alberto Callaspo have both hit pretty well, but Aviles needs to be playing.
It would be nice to see Pena get a shot, too. Kendall has hit .313 so far, but he has little power. We saw last year that Pena can hit for power, and this lineup could certainly use it. I know the Royals don't think much of Pena's defense and love Kendall for his, but right now this offense needs some help. And why is a 36-year-old allowed to catch a day game after a night game, even in the first week of the season?
Last year, Hillman waited two whole games before shuffling up his lineup. In 2008, he changed things up in the 5th game. In two 162-game seasons as manager, Hillman has used 134 lineups (in 2008) and 141 (in 2009). And suddenly he's a spokesman for lineup consistency? I don't get it. I just don't get it.
(from "Love Sick," Time Out Of Mind)
“I feel like if you start mixing and matching too early it sends a bad message"--Trey Hillman, on changes to the lineup, as quoted in Saturday's Kansas City Star.
Five games into the season, and I'm already questioning Trey Hillman's player usage. While his quote above may not technically be a lie, I do think it's a questionable statement, based on Hillman's past tendencies. I also think it's a huge disservice to the Royals' offense, which everyone knew coming into the season would be a problem. While five games is certainly a small sample size, the Royals as a team are hitting .265/.324/.392 and have scored only 17 runs.
Meanwhile, we're still waiting for the Royals' two best hitters in spring training, Mike Aviles and Mitch Maier, to make their first starts of the season. In fact, the two of them have only combined for one plate appearance--Aviles pinch-hit in the 9th inning Saturday night. It's true that spring training stats usually don't mean much, but Aviles hit .471 in 51 spring at-bats and Maier hit .475 in 59 at-bats. More importantly, each seemed to be hitting every ball hard, which is really all you can ask of a batter. As the Royals headed north to start the season, it looked like they had two somewhat surprising offensive leaders.
Now, here we are, almost a week into the season, and these two (as well as backup catcher Brayan Pena, who hit .302 in spring training) haven't started one game. Maier and Pena haven't even been in a game yet, which is especially odd in Pena's case, since 36-year-old catcher Jason Kendall was allowed to start a day game after a night game. Aviles hasn't had more than one at-bat in a game since April 1. Obviously Aviles and Maier won't hit for those averages over a full season, but one has to wonder what the lack of playing time will do to their timing at the plate. Hillman may have already torpedoed these three players' offensive seasons by not getting them involved before now.
In Maier's case, it's a little easier to see why he hasn't played yet. Even with his great spring, Maier was likely going to be a fourth outfielder. And Rick Ankiel has been the Royals' best offensive weapon so far, while Scott Podsednik and David DeJesus have both been at least solid hitters. However, Jose Guillen has started off slowly as the DH, so perhaps Maier could have helped a little more there.
As for Aviles, it's true he is still getting his arm strength back after Tommy John surgery last year. But his spring training effort certainly made it look like 2008 Mike Aviles was back. You might remember that guy--he put up a .325/.354/.480 line after finally forcing his way into the lineup in early June. A Royals team that had been 23-37 before that day went 52-50 the rest of the season. You'd think Hillman would remember that, since he was the guy who rather begrudgingly put Aviles in the lineup to begin with. That was only after Tony Pena Jr. had finally proven to everyone (the Royals of course being the last ones to realize it) that he could not hit. Then Esteban German was given a few starts at shortstop--when he didn't hit right away, it was finally Aviles' chance.
Now Aviles is sitting behind Yuniesky Betancourt, who has proven to everyone (except, of course, the Royals) that he can't hit, his Opening Day homer notwithstanding. If the Royals don't want to play him because they think he can't throw from shortstop, then he really should be in Omaha getting regular duty. If they want him on the major league roster, they need to find a place to play him. Chris Getz and Alberto Callaspo have both hit pretty well, but Aviles needs to be playing.
It would be nice to see Pena get a shot, too. Kendall has hit .313 so far, but he has little power. We saw last year that Pena can hit for power, and this lineup could certainly use it. I know the Royals don't think much of Pena's defense and love Kendall for his, but right now this offense needs some help. And why is a 36-year-old allowed to catch a day game after a night game, even in the first week of the season?
Last year, Hillman waited two whole games before shuffling up his lineup. In 2008, he changed things up in the 5th game. In two 162-game seasons as manager, Hillman has used 134 lineups (in 2008) and 141 (in 2009). And suddenly he's a spokesman for lineup consistency? I don't get it. I just don't get it.
Saturday, April 3, 2010
Talking To Myself In A Monologue
(from "Highlands," Time Out Of Mind)
Here we are, less than 48 hours from the beginning of the 2010 season. I don't know quite why, but after a winter's worth of doubt about the direction of the entire Royals organization, in the last week or so I've had a growing sense of...well, maybe not optimism, but encouragement. This is despite the fact my previous post quite obviously jinxed at least two of the players (Robinson Tejeda and Alex Gordon) I was hoping would make big contributions to the Royals this season. And I should add right up front that I harbor no illusions that this Royals team will contend for a division title. So maybe "cautious encouragement" would be a better term. Besides, everyone ought to have a little optimism before the season starts.
Having said that, I know there's a very good chance that, sometime in June maybe, I'll be wondering how I ever allowed myself to have any optimism about this team. So, for posterity's sake, here's how I talked myself into being cautiously encouraged about the state of Royals baseball in 2010...
First, start with the lineup. It's true that the Royals hardly look like an offensive juggernaut heading into the season. There are still not enough high-OBP guys on the roster, and there aren't enough power hitters, either. But this spring did see two players who contributed little last year look like they could be helpful this year: Mike Aviles and Mitch Maier. Aviles is still recovering from the Tommy John surgery he had last year, so he may not play regularly until his throwing arm is strong enough for everyday duty at shortstop. But it certainly looks like his bat is back where it was in 2008. If he really is going to hit that well again, it would help the Royals immensely. Not only would they have a productive bat at shortstop, they would be removing perhaps their worst offensive player (Yuniesky Betancourt) from the lineup.
In Maier's case, this could be the continuation of his minor league career pattern, where he makes a substantial improvement in his second year at each level. Maier probably won't be starter, but he can certainly contribute as a fourth outfielder. If I were managing the team, it would be very tempting to stick him in Scott Podsednik's starting spot and see how he responds. Get Alex Gordon back healthy, stick Alberto Callaspo at DH (or, if you think you can live with his defense, put him at 2B), and suddenly you have a respectable-looking lineup, maybe something like this:
DeJesus LF
Aviles SS
Callaspo DH
Butler 1B
Ankiel CF
Gordon 3B
Maier RF
Kendall C
Getz 2B
Of course, this brings up the question of what to do with Jose Guillen. In my perfect world, the Royals would eat his salary, trade him for whatever they can get, and call up Kila Ka'aihue from Omaha to provide better production for much less money. However, in reality the Royals are probably stuck with Guillen for this season. We'll all have to hope that the last year of his contract provides some sort of extra motivation, although I admit I'm worried that if he does have a good season, the Royals will be interested in re-signing him.
Anyway, if you stick Guillen at DH and move Callaspo to second, now you just have one real dead spot in the lineup--catcher, which can be filled by Brayan Pena if you can live with his defensive shortcomings. If you just have to have Kendall in there, well, at least most teams in baseball wish they had more offense at that spot.
As for the pitching staff, I think it's the one area where Royals fans don't need much convincing to be optimistic. Obviously, there are question marks there, too, but I think most people would say the starting pitching is the strength of this team. Get a couple of relievers to step up and suddenly the bullpen looks decent in front of Joakim Soria.
Of course, much of this cautious optimism is based on players staying healthy. But even if they don't, I think the AAA Omaha roster is in much better shape to provide short-term help than it was last year.
In this spring training, the Royals had young players who had good showings, but still did not make the major league roster. Guys like outfielder Jordan Parraz and relief pitcher Blake Wood. Because the Royals have players like that in Omaha, ready to replace the inevitable injured or poor-performing major leaguer, they should not have to sign a Ryan Freel off the street. A Parraz or David Lough or Jarrod Dyson may never be a star, but they can at least be an inexpensive fill-in who can contribute a little bit offensively. Frankly, I wouldn't be too upset if the Royals simply cut some of the overpriced, underperforming vets from the big league club and used some of these players instead. We already know what Kyle Farnsworth can do in the majors. Why not find out what Blake Wood can do? But that's a rant for another day.
Along those lines, I do feel like the Royals are moving ahead slowly as an organization. The first wave of "Dayton Moore prospects" are finally reaching the AA level. Even with Danny Duffy walking away from baseball, the Royals do seem to have quite a bit of pitching talent in the minors. And while there will certainly be disappointments in that group of prospects, there is also the opportunity to trade some of that surplus for needs elsewhere. I'm excited to see how it shakes out over the next few years.
So, feeling the cautious optimism yet? Look, I'm not going to predict a division title here, or even in the next few years. I don't foresee a winning record this year and probably not next year, either, unless the Royals do something drastic in the next 12 months. However, I do think that we Royals fans have (justifiably) become a very pessismistic fanbase. For some reason, I tend to be a sports optimist. Or maybe I'm just a contrarian. Either way, I though I would throw these thoughts out there for argument's sake, if nothing else.
Here we are, less than 48 hours from the beginning of the 2010 season. I don't know quite why, but after a winter's worth of doubt about the direction of the entire Royals organization, in the last week or so I've had a growing sense of...well, maybe not optimism, but encouragement. This is despite the fact my previous post quite obviously jinxed at least two of the players (Robinson Tejeda and Alex Gordon) I was hoping would make big contributions to the Royals this season. And I should add right up front that I harbor no illusions that this Royals team will contend for a division title. So maybe "cautious encouragement" would be a better term. Besides, everyone ought to have a little optimism before the season starts.
Having said that, I know there's a very good chance that, sometime in June maybe, I'll be wondering how I ever allowed myself to have any optimism about this team. So, for posterity's sake, here's how I talked myself into being cautiously encouraged about the state of Royals baseball in 2010...
First, start with the lineup. It's true that the Royals hardly look like an offensive juggernaut heading into the season. There are still not enough high-OBP guys on the roster, and there aren't enough power hitters, either. But this spring did see two players who contributed little last year look like they could be helpful this year: Mike Aviles and Mitch Maier. Aviles is still recovering from the Tommy John surgery he had last year, so he may not play regularly until his throwing arm is strong enough for everyday duty at shortstop. But it certainly looks like his bat is back where it was in 2008. If he really is going to hit that well again, it would help the Royals immensely. Not only would they have a productive bat at shortstop, they would be removing perhaps their worst offensive player (Yuniesky Betancourt) from the lineup.
In Maier's case, this could be the continuation of his minor league career pattern, where he makes a substantial improvement in his second year at each level. Maier probably won't be starter, but he can certainly contribute as a fourth outfielder. If I were managing the team, it would be very tempting to stick him in Scott Podsednik's starting spot and see how he responds. Get Alex Gordon back healthy, stick Alberto Callaspo at DH (or, if you think you can live with his defense, put him at 2B), and suddenly you have a respectable-looking lineup, maybe something like this:
DeJesus LF
Aviles SS
Callaspo DH
Butler 1B
Ankiel CF
Gordon 3B
Maier RF
Kendall C
Getz 2B
Of course, this brings up the question of what to do with Jose Guillen. In my perfect world, the Royals would eat his salary, trade him for whatever they can get, and call up Kila Ka'aihue from Omaha to provide better production for much less money. However, in reality the Royals are probably stuck with Guillen for this season. We'll all have to hope that the last year of his contract provides some sort of extra motivation, although I admit I'm worried that if he does have a good season, the Royals will be interested in re-signing him.
Anyway, if you stick Guillen at DH and move Callaspo to second, now you just have one real dead spot in the lineup--catcher, which can be filled by Brayan Pena if you can live with his defensive shortcomings. If you just have to have Kendall in there, well, at least most teams in baseball wish they had more offense at that spot.
As for the pitching staff, I think it's the one area where Royals fans don't need much convincing to be optimistic. Obviously, there are question marks there, too, but I think most people would say the starting pitching is the strength of this team. Get a couple of relievers to step up and suddenly the bullpen looks decent in front of Joakim Soria.
Of course, much of this cautious optimism is based on players staying healthy. But even if they don't, I think the AAA Omaha roster is in much better shape to provide short-term help than it was last year.
In this spring training, the Royals had young players who had good showings, but still did not make the major league roster. Guys like outfielder Jordan Parraz and relief pitcher Blake Wood. Because the Royals have players like that in Omaha, ready to replace the inevitable injured or poor-performing major leaguer, they should not have to sign a Ryan Freel off the street. A Parraz or David Lough or Jarrod Dyson may never be a star, but they can at least be an inexpensive fill-in who can contribute a little bit offensively. Frankly, I wouldn't be too upset if the Royals simply cut some of the overpriced, underperforming vets from the big league club and used some of these players instead. We already know what Kyle Farnsworth can do in the majors. Why not find out what Blake Wood can do? But that's a rant for another day.
Along those lines, I do feel like the Royals are moving ahead slowly as an organization. The first wave of "Dayton Moore prospects" are finally reaching the AA level. Even with Danny Duffy walking away from baseball, the Royals do seem to have quite a bit of pitching talent in the minors. And while there will certainly be disappointments in that group of prospects, there is also the opportunity to trade some of that surplus for needs elsewhere. I'm excited to see how it shakes out over the next few years.
So, feeling the cautious optimism yet? Look, I'm not going to predict a division title here, or even in the next few years. I don't foresee a winning record this year and probably not next year, either, unless the Royals do something drastic in the next 12 months. However, I do think that we Royals fans have (justifiably) become a very pessismistic fanbase. For some reason, I tend to be a sports optimist. Or maybe I'm just a contrarian. Either way, I though I would throw these thoughts out there for argument's sake, if nothing else.
Sunday, February 14, 2010
Skies Are Gray
...I'm looking for anything that will bring a happy glow
(From "Can't Wait," Time Out Of Mind)
Oh look, it's snowing again outside the Tangled Up HQ here in Overland Park. This winter seems like it's lasted forever and may never end. And I doubt any Royals fan out there really believes, deep down, that this team can contend for a division title in 2010.
But pitchers and catchers report to Surprise, Arizona for the beginning of spring training on Wednesday. Some guys (notably Zack Greinke and Joakim Soria) are already there. Spring really is on the way. So now, let's try a little optimism. There will be plenty of time for pessimism once the season starts. Please note, I don't believe all of this will happen this season. In a six-month season, no team ever has everything go right, even a loaded team like the Red Sox or Yankees. Also note, I'm ignoring for now the Royals' three most promising players for this season--for the purposes of this discussion, I'm going to presume Greinke will be dominant again, Soria will be in top form, and Billy Butler will continue to be one of baseball's best young hitters.
With those caveats in mind, here are four players whom I feel could greatly exceed expectations this year. And if they do, this Royals team could be much better than anyone thinks.
1. Alex Gordon. It sure feels like we've been waiting forever for him to become George Brett 2.0. I do agree that it's highly unlikely he will ever reach that plateau, but he could certainly become an asset to the Royals' offense. Gordon's 2009 season was torpedoed by injury almost from the get-go. Still, in the 49 games he did get to play in, he did post a .324 OBP. That's not great, but it was much better than his .232 BA. If Gordon had put up, say, a .260 BA, his OBP would have climbed to .350 or so. And don't forget, that .324 OBP was better than several guys the Royals gave many more plate appearances to: Miguel Olivo, Yuniesky Betancourt, Willie Bloomquist and two guys the Royals gave a pile of money to solely for their hitting ability, Jose Guillen and Mike Jacobs.
If Gordon had walked at the same rate he did last year for as many plate appearances as Butler had, he would have led the team in walks (by a wide margin) with 75. My hope is that Gordon is really beginning to master the strike zone at the MLB level, and that increased power numbers will follow. As it is, when he was healthy for most of the season in 2008, he did post a 109 OPS+ and a .783 OPS. Gordon just turned 26 a few days ago, so he should be entering the prime of his career. If he's ever going to make the sort of leap Butler made last year, now is the time.
2. Luke Hochevar. Here's the other Royals' top draft pick whose stardom we've seemingly been waiting on forever. Like Gordon, Hochevar may never reach the level we hoped for when he was drafted, or the level you would expect from his lofty draft slot. But if he could become a solid #3 or even #2 starter, the Royals would have a rotation that any AL Central team would envy.
Oddly, nearly all of Hochevar's numbers trended downward from his rookie season in 2008 to 2009. Yet, he showed real flashes of brilliance last season. There was the 80-pitch complete game win over Cincinnati, the 13-strikeout game against Texas, and the complete-game shutout of the Chicago White Sox. Obviously, no pitcher is going to throw like that every time out. But there was some evidence that Hochevar has the ability to be an above-average major league pitcher.
For one thing, Hochevar's BB/9 and K/9 ratios both improved from 2008 to 2009. While we only have two seasons' worth of data, it would seem that Hochevar is also figuring out the strike zone at the MLB level. This is possibly more important for him than any other Royals starter, because Hochevar is a sinkerball pitcher, and therefore more dependent on the infield defense behind him to make plays. The more strikeouts he can get reduces the number of batted balls in play, and the number of those that get through the infield for hits.
Which brings us to another reason to hope Hochevar can break out in 2010--the hope that the Royals' infield defense will be better. Although they need to find a place for his bat, the Royals are best served by finding Alberto Callaspo a defensive spot far away from the middle of the infield now that they have Chris Getz to play second. And if Mike Aviles can come back from his injury and reclaim the shortstop job from Betancourt, suddenly the Royals might be at least passable defensively. It seems simple, but just having decent infielders who can catch ground balls would go a long ways towards helping Hochevar reach his potential.
3. Robinson Tejeda. After the Royals ran Gil Meche and Brian Bannister into the ground last season, they basically made Tejeda a starter out of desperation. And in six September starts, he vaulted himself into contention for a rotation spot in 2010. In those starts, five of which came against teams that finished with a winning record, went 3-1 with a 2.84 ERA. Now, we've seen this kind of sparkling September before, only to be extremely disappointed the following season--here's looking at you, Kyle Davies--so Tejeda's promising month should be taken with a grain or two of salt. But even if Tejeda does not make the starting rotation, perhaps he will be given a more important role in the bullpen, which was a major problem for KC last year.
4. Juan Cruz. Speaking of major bullpen problems, here's a guy who was in the middle of many of them in 2009. It's funny (funny strange, not funny ha-ha), because the signing of Cruz was the one move the Royals made last offseason that was well-received by practically every Royal fan. Cruz was coming off two exceptional years in Arizona as a reliever, and was expected to be a primary setup man for Soria. Instead, he was probably the Royals' worst bullpen member not named Kyle Farnsworth. The most amazing thing about Cruz last year was his inability to get strikeouts. He went from K/9 rates over 12 in 2007-08 to 6.8 last year with no apparent reason before he finally went on the disabled list with shoulder inflammation in August. If he is healthy this season, and can return to the form the Royals expected when they signed him, it would go a long way towards solidifying the bullpen in front of Soria. The Royals figure to be offensively challenged again this year, so the times the starting pitchers leave the game with a lead, the bullpen must be able to finish out the game.
(From "Can't Wait," Time Out Of Mind)
Oh look, it's snowing again outside the Tangled Up HQ here in Overland Park. This winter seems like it's lasted forever and may never end. And I doubt any Royals fan out there really believes, deep down, that this team can contend for a division title in 2010.
But pitchers and catchers report to Surprise, Arizona for the beginning of spring training on Wednesday. Some guys (notably Zack Greinke and Joakim Soria) are already there. Spring really is on the way. So now, let's try a little optimism. There will be plenty of time for pessimism once the season starts. Please note, I don't believe all of this will happen this season. In a six-month season, no team ever has everything go right, even a loaded team like the Red Sox or Yankees. Also note, I'm ignoring for now the Royals' three most promising players for this season--for the purposes of this discussion, I'm going to presume Greinke will be dominant again, Soria will be in top form, and Billy Butler will continue to be one of baseball's best young hitters.
With those caveats in mind, here are four players whom I feel could greatly exceed expectations this year. And if they do, this Royals team could be much better than anyone thinks.
1. Alex Gordon. It sure feels like we've been waiting forever for him to become George Brett 2.0. I do agree that it's highly unlikely he will ever reach that plateau, but he could certainly become an asset to the Royals' offense. Gordon's 2009 season was torpedoed by injury almost from the get-go. Still, in the 49 games he did get to play in, he did post a .324 OBP. That's not great, but it was much better than his .232 BA. If Gordon had put up, say, a .260 BA, his OBP would have climbed to .350 or so. And don't forget, that .324 OBP was better than several guys the Royals gave many more plate appearances to: Miguel Olivo, Yuniesky Betancourt, Willie Bloomquist and two guys the Royals gave a pile of money to solely for their hitting ability, Jose Guillen and Mike Jacobs.
If Gordon had walked at the same rate he did last year for as many plate appearances as Butler had, he would have led the team in walks (by a wide margin) with 75. My hope is that Gordon is really beginning to master the strike zone at the MLB level, and that increased power numbers will follow. As it is, when he was healthy for most of the season in 2008, he did post a 109 OPS+ and a .783 OPS. Gordon just turned 26 a few days ago, so he should be entering the prime of his career. If he's ever going to make the sort of leap Butler made last year, now is the time.
2. Luke Hochevar. Here's the other Royals' top draft pick whose stardom we've seemingly been waiting on forever. Like Gordon, Hochevar may never reach the level we hoped for when he was drafted, or the level you would expect from his lofty draft slot. But if he could become a solid #3 or even #2 starter, the Royals would have a rotation that any AL Central team would envy.
Oddly, nearly all of Hochevar's numbers trended downward from his rookie season in 2008 to 2009. Yet, he showed real flashes of brilliance last season. There was the 80-pitch complete game win over Cincinnati, the 13-strikeout game against Texas, and the complete-game shutout of the Chicago White Sox. Obviously, no pitcher is going to throw like that every time out. But there was some evidence that Hochevar has the ability to be an above-average major league pitcher.
For one thing, Hochevar's BB/9 and K/9 ratios both improved from 2008 to 2009. While we only have two seasons' worth of data, it would seem that Hochevar is also figuring out the strike zone at the MLB level. This is possibly more important for him than any other Royals starter, because Hochevar is a sinkerball pitcher, and therefore more dependent on the infield defense behind him to make plays. The more strikeouts he can get reduces the number of batted balls in play, and the number of those that get through the infield for hits.
Which brings us to another reason to hope Hochevar can break out in 2010--the hope that the Royals' infield defense will be better. Although they need to find a place for his bat, the Royals are best served by finding Alberto Callaspo a defensive spot far away from the middle of the infield now that they have Chris Getz to play second. And if Mike Aviles can come back from his injury and reclaim the shortstop job from Betancourt, suddenly the Royals might be at least passable defensively. It seems simple, but just having decent infielders who can catch ground balls would go a long ways towards helping Hochevar reach his potential.
3. Robinson Tejeda. After the Royals ran Gil Meche and Brian Bannister into the ground last season, they basically made Tejeda a starter out of desperation. And in six September starts, he vaulted himself into contention for a rotation spot in 2010. In those starts, five of which came against teams that finished with a winning record, went 3-1 with a 2.84 ERA. Now, we've seen this kind of sparkling September before, only to be extremely disappointed the following season--here's looking at you, Kyle Davies--so Tejeda's promising month should be taken with a grain or two of salt. But even if Tejeda does not make the starting rotation, perhaps he will be given a more important role in the bullpen, which was a major problem for KC last year.
4. Juan Cruz. Speaking of major bullpen problems, here's a guy who was in the middle of many of them in 2009. It's funny (funny strange, not funny ha-ha), because the signing of Cruz was the one move the Royals made last offseason that was well-received by practically every Royal fan. Cruz was coming off two exceptional years in Arizona as a reliever, and was expected to be a primary setup man for Soria. Instead, he was probably the Royals' worst bullpen member not named Kyle Farnsworth. The most amazing thing about Cruz last year was his inability to get strikeouts. He went from K/9 rates over 12 in 2007-08 to 6.8 last year with no apparent reason before he finally went on the disabled list with shoulder inflammation in August. If he is healthy this season, and can return to the form the Royals expected when they signed him, it would go a long way towards solidifying the bullpen in front of Soria. The Royals figure to be offensively challenged again this year, so the times the starting pitchers leave the game with a lead, the bullpen must be able to finish out the game.
Saturday, January 23, 2010
If There's An Original Thought Out There
...I could use it right now.
(From "Brownsville Girl," Knocked Out Loaded)
Another outfielder. With the addition of Rick Ankiel, the Royals have now signed or traded for three new outfielders this offseason, and a fourth if you think Josh Fields will end up playing more outfield than infield.
By itself, the Ankiel move seems OK, as well as intriguing. Ankiel's numbers fell off last year, but that may have been due to a horrific crash into an outfield wall he suffered in early May. Giving him $3.25 million for only one year seems like an acceptable gamble--not much money to see if he can return to his 2008 form. The mutual option for 2011 means either side can walk away--if Ankiel doesn't produce, he probably won't be a Royal in 2011. If he does, it's likely he'll exercise his option and be a free agent again. So the contract doesn't seem to be a problem for either side, and I don't mind the Royals taking a small gamble like that.
It's true that Ankiel is now 30, and theoretically in the decline phase of his career. However, his famous switch from pitcher to outfielder means he's only had two full big-league season's worth of everyday hitting. Those factors probably don't offset each other, but I suppose the possibility exists that Ankiel's career arc could be different from a "normal" player.
However, given the other moves the Royals have made this offseason, I cannot figure out what the overall plan is. The Royals now have Ankiel, Brian Anderson, David DeJesus, Jose Guillen, Mitch Maier, and Scott Podsednik as outfield candidates. And that doesn't include Fields or, possibly, Alberto Callaspo, who apparently has been supplanted at second base by Chris Getz but is one of the few Royals who can hit.
Of course, this is a pattern for the Royals, and it's a disturbing one. There doesn't seem to be a master plan for the major league level--if there were one, why would they ever sign Podsednik only to sign Ankiel two weeks later? This follows last offseason, when it seemed like the goal was to sign any available relief pitcher. I guess the hope is that quantity will somehow equal quality.
Also, this seems like an indictment of the farm system. Dayton Moore has had almost four years to provide the franchise with some quality minor-league options to fill holes at the major-league level. Yes, the cupboard was pretty bare when Moore took over. But it seems like the Royals are trying to patch up both AAA Omaha and the big-league club now, while all the hot prospects are still in AA or A ball. This is rather depressing.
Well, at the risk of repeating myself, it will be interesting to see if another move or two (trade-wise) springs out of this signing. The outfield situation may not sort itself out until the end of spring training. For now, though, this is another head-scratcher, even though, as I said, I don't think this move by itself is bad.
(From "Brownsville Girl," Knocked Out Loaded)
Another outfielder. With the addition of Rick Ankiel, the Royals have now signed or traded for three new outfielders this offseason, and a fourth if you think Josh Fields will end up playing more outfield than infield.
By itself, the Ankiel move seems OK, as well as intriguing. Ankiel's numbers fell off last year, but that may have been due to a horrific crash into an outfield wall he suffered in early May. Giving him $3.25 million for only one year seems like an acceptable gamble--not much money to see if he can return to his 2008 form. The mutual option for 2011 means either side can walk away--if Ankiel doesn't produce, he probably won't be a Royal in 2011. If he does, it's likely he'll exercise his option and be a free agent again. So the contract doesn't seem to be a problem for either side, and I don't mind the Royals taking a small gamble like that.
It's true that Ankiel is now 30, and theoretically in the decline phase of his career. However, his famous switch from pitcher to outfielder means he's only had two full big-league season's worth of everyday hitting. Those factors probably don't offset each other, but I suppose the possibility exists that Ankiel's career arc could be different from a "normal" player.
However, given the other moves the Royals have made this offseason, I cannot figure out what the overall plan is. The Royals now have Ankiel, Brian Anderson, David DeJesus, Jose Guillen, Mitch Maier, and Scott Podsednik as outfield candidates. And that doesn't include Fields or, possibly, Alberto Callaspo, who apparently has been supplanted at second base by Chris Getz but is one of the few Royals who can hit.
Of course, this is a pattern for the Royals, and it's a disturbing one. There doesn't seem to be a master plan for the major league level--if there were one, why would they ever sign Podsednik only to sign Ankiel two weeks later? This follows last offseason, when it seemed like the goal was to sign any available relief pitcher. I guess the hope is that quantity will somehow equal quality.
Also, this seems like an indictment of the farm system. Dayton Moore has had almost four years to provide the franchise with some quality minor-league options to fill holes at the major-league level. Yes, the cupboard was pretty bare when Moore took over. But it seems like the Royals are trying to patch up both AAA Omaha and the big-league club now, while all the hot prospects are still in AA or A ball. This is rather depressing.
Well, at the risk of repeating myself, it will be interesting to see if another move or two (trade-wise) springs out of this signing. The outfield situation may not sort itself out until the end of spring training. For now, though, this is another head-scratcher, even though, as I said, I don't think this move by itself is bad.
Sunday, January 17, 2010
Announcements
A couple of quick announcements...
First, I finally put up a poll for most disappointing Royals season. It's over there on the right side of the page. You can refresh your memory as to what I wrote about each of those seasons here.
Second, I decided it was time to join 2009. Yes, I now have a Twitter account. If you're so inclined, you may follow it here.
Now, go enjoy the Golden Globes or the premiere of 24. Or whatever you're up to tonight. As always, thanks for reading!
First, I finally put up a poll for most disappointing Royals season. It's over there on the right side of the page. You can refresh your memory as to what I wrote about each of those seasons here.
Second, I decided it was time to join 2009. Yes, I now have a Twitter account. If you're so inclined, you may follow it here.
Now, go enjoy the Golden Globes or the premiere of 24. Or whatever you're up to tonight. As always, thanks for reading!
Saturday, January 9, 2010
I Keep Recycling The Same Old Thoughts
(from "Someday Baby," Modern Times)
The Royals have added Scott Podsednik to the team, giving him a one-year contract for $1.75 million, plus a club option for 2011. I'd like to offer you some trenchant analysis of this signing and how it will make the Royals better, but I can't work up the enthusiasm. And besides, I think we all (unless Dayton Moore is reading this) know it probably won't make the Royals better.
Sure, there's a chance Podsednik could make the Royals better in 2010. If he were to duplicate his .353 OBP from 2009, he would likely be among the team leaders in that category. That number would have ranked third on the Royals last season, behind Billy Butler and Alberto Callaspo. Combined, Royals center fielders (I'm assuming the Royals will play Podsednik in center and not left field) put up a .319 OBP last season; Podsednik's career number is .340. So from that perspective, yes, he probably will be an upgrade from 2009.
See, there's nothing wrong with this signing from that standpoint. On the other hand, I don't think you'll find many people, even optimistic Royals fans, who expect the team to contend for a division title this year. With that in mind, would there really be any harm in letting Mitch Maier play a full season to see what the Royals have there? Maier is younger and cheaper than Podsednik. While he wasn't great last year, he wasn't horrible. Why not see if he might be part of the long-term solution?
Look, the Royals are just marking time until this season is over and the ridiculously bloated contracts of Jose Guillen and Kyle Farnsworth come off the books and give the team some payroll flexibility. Furthermore, they're really just waiting until prospects like Mike Moustakas and Eric Hosmer are ready to make an impact at the major league level. I think most Royals fans understand that and are willing to wait a couple more years for the team to really be on the cusp of something good (we've waited 25 years, what's a couple more?). Scott Podsednik is a decent player and has had a solid career. But he'll turn 34 during spring training. He's not going to be here when the Royals' long-term plan reaches fruition (assuming, of course, it does reach some sort of fruition). Why not give someone who might be here when that happens a chance to play?
Instead, the Royals have made yet another move that looks OK in the short term but probably blocks a younger player from playing full-time. It's a move that doesn't make much sense to me. But that sort of move is quickly becoming a Dayton Moore specialty, and I think it's the sort of move the Royals need to stop making if they are ever truly going to change their losing ways.
The Royals have added Scott Podsednik to the team, giving him a one-year contract for $1.75 million, plus a club option for 2011. I'd like to offer you some trenchant analysis of this signing and how it will make the Royals better, but I can't work up the enthusiasm. And besides, I think we all (unless Dayton Moore is reading this) know it probably won't make the Royals better.
Sure, there's a chance Podsednik could make the Royals better in 2010. If he were to duplicate his .353 OBP from 2009, he would likely be among the team leaders in that category. That number would have ranked third on the Royals last season, behind Billy Butler and Alberto Callaspo. Combined, Royals center fielders (I'm assuming the Royals will play Podsednik in center and not left field) put up a .319 OBP last season; Podsednik's career number is .340. So from that perspective, yes, he probably will be an upgrade from 2009.
See, there's nothing wrong with this signing from that standpoint. On the other hand, I don't think you'll find many people, even optimistic Royals fans, who expect the team to contend for a division title this year. With that in mind, would there really be any harm in letting Mitch Maier play a full season to see what the Royals have there? Maier is younger and cheaper than Podsednik. While he wasn't great last year, he wasn't horrible. Why not see if he might be part of the long-term solution?
Look, the Royals are just marking time until this season is over and the ridiculously bloated contracts of Jose Guillen and Kyle Farnsworth come off the books and give the team some payroll flexibility. Furthermore, they're really just waiting until prospects like Mike Moustakas and Eric Hosmer are ready to make an impact at the major league level. I think most Royals fans understand that and are willing to wait a couple more years for the team to really be on the cusp of something good (we've waited 25 years, what's a couple more?). Scott Podsednik is a decent player and has had a solid career. But he'll turn 34 during spring training. He's not going to be here when the Royals' long-term plan reaches fruition (assuming, of course, it does reach some sort of fruition). Why not give someone who might be here when that happens a chance to play?
Instead, the Royals have made yet another move that looks OK in the short term but probably blocks a younger player from playing full-time. It's a move that doesn't make much sense to me. But that sort of move is quickly becoming a Dayton Moore specialty, and I think it's the sort of move the Royals need to stop making if they are ever truly going to change their losing ways.
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