It's All Over Now, Baby Blue

Well, that was sudden.

I think we all knew Trey Hillman would not be the Royals' manager for long, it was just a question of how long he would last. I admit I was surprised when Hillman was fired Thursday afternoon (or to be technical, when it was announced Thursday afternoon)--I figured he would last for a few more weeks, and there was even a good chance he'd finish out the year and his contract, then not brought back next year.

I don't take joy in anyone losing their job, but Hillman needed to go. When the Royals hired him, I really thought he had a chance to be a success. But I was wrong; I greatly underestimated the need for a manager to have spent some time in the majors as a player or coach before taking over a major league team. That sort of experience doesn't guarantee success, but it now seems obvious it helps give even a rookie manager some credibility. Looking back, it is apparent Hillman lost most of his team almost before his tenure even started, and I believe ultimately that doomed him as a manager. And then there were the odd strategic decisions, the irrational desire to use sacrifice bunts, and the inability to stand up to veteran players (letting Gil Meche talk him into leaving Meche in games, letting Jason Kendall play everyday, etc.), among Hillman's other failings.

I am OK with the Royals hiring Ned Yost as Hillman's replacement. Yost will probably never be confused with John McGraw, but he has played, coached and managed in the majors, and has even had some success (let's discuss that in a minute).

Ultimately, however, a manager is only as good as the players he's given. I do believe the Royals have more talent than their current 13-23 record shows, but not a lot more. Even if Hillman had managed every game perfectly this year (by which I mean, chosen the best option when he picked a relief pitcher or pinch hitter, or picked the right time to steal or bunt or whatever), how many more wins would that be worth? Three? Four? Whatever it would be, I'm sure it wouldn't be enough to vault the Royals into contention. For example, look at the May 6 game in Texas--Hillman brings in his best reliever (Joakim Soria) to hold a 1-run lead in the 8th inning. I suppose you could argue that Hillman should have let Robinson Tejeda, who had looked good getting the first two out in the inning, finish the job. But I think every Royals fan probably felt good about Soria coming in with a 1-run lead. Two homers later, the Royals had another loss.

That said, I believe one area where a manager can make a difference is in setting the atmosphere and mood of the team. At any level of baseball, it is impossible to play well if you are pressing too much or trying too hard. So I can only imagine what it's like for players at the highest level of the sport when they find themselves in a pennant race in September. And this is an area where Yost apparently failed in his previous managerial stint--the Brewers fired him with 12 games left in the 2008 season, as they desperately tried to hold on to a playoff spot. That Brewers team started September with the second-best record in the NL, 4.5 games behind the division-leading Cubs and with a 5.5 game lead in the wild-card race. They proceeded to go 3-11 over the next two weeks and blow the entire wild-card lead. That's when the Brewers replaced Yost, and they were able to capture the wild-card spot.

I suppose the bright side here is that the Royals are a long ways away from any sort of playoff contention. And to be fair, I think Yost deserves some credit for leading the Brewers' young talent from a 106-loss season the year before he took over to the brink of a playoff spot. It just looks to me that, based on history, if Yost helps the Royals get to playoff contention, they may need to find someone else to finish the job. For now, though, the emphasis should remain the same: getting young, talented players to the majors ready to play, and then put them in position to succeed. Yost is supposed to be good at this part of the job. We will see.

Did I Hear Someone Tell A Lie?

...did I hear someone's distant cry?
(from "Love Sick," Time Out Of Mind)

“I feel like if you start mixing and matching too early it sends a bad message"--Trey Hillman, on changes to the lineup, as quoted in Saturday's Kansas City Star.

Five games into the season, and I'm already questioning Trey Hillman's player usage. While his quote above may not technically be a lie, I do think it's a questionable statement, based on Hillman's past tendencies. I also think it's a huge disservice to the Royals' offense, which everyone knew coming into the season would be a problem. While five games is certainly a small sample size, the Royals as a team are hitting .265/.324/.392 and have scored only 17 runs.

Meanwhile, we're still waiting for the Royals' two best hitters in spring training, Mike Aviles and Mitch Maier, to make their first starts of the season. In fact, the two of them have only combined for one plate appearance--Aviles pinch-hit in the 9th inning Saturday night. It's true that spring training stats usually don't mean much, but Aviles hit .471 in 51 spring at-bats and Maier hit .475 in 59 at-bats. More importantly, each seemed to be hitting every ball hard, which is really all you can ask of a batter. As the Royals headed north to start the season, it looked like they had two somewhat surprising offensive leaders.

Now, here we are, almost a week into the season, and these two (as well as backup catcher Brayan Pena, who hit .302 in spring training) haven't started one game. Maier and Pena haven't even been in a game yet, which is especially odd in Pena's case, since 36-year-old catcher Jason Kendall was allowed to start a day game after a night game. Aviles hasn't had more than one at-bat in a game since April 1. Obviously Aviles and Maier won't hit for those averages over a full season, but one has to wonder what the lack of playing time will do to their timing at the plate. Hillman may have already torpedoed these three players' offensive seasons by not getting them involved before now.

In Maier's case, it's a little easier to see why he hasn't played yet. Even with his great spring, Maier was likely going to be a fourth outfielder. And Rick Ankiel has been the Royals' best offensive weapon so far, while Scott Podsednik and David DeJesus have both been at least solid hitters. However, Jose Guillen has started off slowly as the DH, so perhaps Maier could have helped a little more there.

As for Aviles, it's true he is still getting his arm strength back after Tommy John surgery last year. But his spring training effort certainly made it look like 2008 Mike Aviles was back. You might remember that guy--he put up a .325/.354/.480 line after finally forcing his way into the lineup in early June. A Royals team that had been 23-37 before that day went 52-50 the rest of the season. You'd think Hillman would remember that, since he was the guy who rather begrudgingly put Aviles in the lineup to begin with. That was only after Tony Pena Jr. had finally proven to everyone (the Royals of course being the last ones to realize it) that he could not hit. Then Esteban German was given a few starts at shortstop--when he didn't hit right away, it was finally Aviles' chance.

Now Aviles is sitting behind Yuniesky Betancourt, who has proven to everyone (except, of course, the Royals) that he can't hit, his Opening Day homer notwithstanding. If the Royals don't want to play him because they think he can't throw from shortstop, then he really should be in Omaha getting regular duty. If they want him on the major league roster, they need to find a place to play him. Chris Getz and Alberto Callaspo have both hit pretty well, but Aviles needs to be playing.

It would be nice to see Pena get a shot, too. Kendall has hit .313 so far, but he has little power. We saw last year that Pena can hit for power, and this lineup could certainly use it. I know the Royals don't think much of Pena's defense and love Kendall for his, but right now this offense needs some help. And why is a 36-year-old allowed to catch a day game after a night game, even in the first week of the season?

Last year, Hillman waited two whole games before shuffling up his lineup. In 2008, he changed things up in the 5th game. In two 162-game seasons as manager, Hillman has used 134 lineups (in 2008) and 141 (in 2009). And suddenly he's a spokesman for lineup consistency? I don't get it. I just don't get it.

Have To Quit Your Mess And Straighten Out

(from "Slow Train," Slow Train Coming)

The disaster continues unabated. Your Kansas City Royals (take my baseball team, please!) have put together an August for the record books. Not in a good way, either. KC is 6-19 so far this month. "Fun" facts about the Royals' August:

1. That is a 39-win pace for a whole season. That's 1962 Mets (40-120) territory.
2. Back in May, the Royals had a 12-game losing streak. They finished that month 10-19. So this will be a worse month than that one.
3. The Royals actually won three in a row Aug. 2-4, scoring 27 runs in those games. It took them the next 11 games to score 27 runs. For the month, they have been outscored 149-88.
4. Of the 149 runs, 22 have been unearned. In the previous four months, KC allowed 31 unearned runs.
5. After beating Boston 4-3 on Aug. 4, the Royals were 9.5 games out of first. They were in fourth place, three games behind Detroit and three ahead of Cleveland. They are now an even 20 games out of first, nine behind Detroit and 9.5 behind Cleveland, who passed the Tigers for third.

Perhaps this helps explain my more infrequent posting lately. As Mom always said, if you can't say anything nice, don't say anything at all*.

*I really don't remember Mom saying this very often. I guess I was cliche-deprived.

The thing is, this recent stretch is more disapponting than just about anything in recent Royals history. This was supposed to be a franchise on the upswing, but now it seems to be a franchise that can't do anything right or catch any sort of break. The pitching has stunk, the hitters seem to be in a hurry to swing at every pitch they see and get home for the 10:00 news, and the fielders can't catch or throw. The training staff can't keep anyone healthy (six players have been put on the DL in August). MLB has told the Royals' top draft pick, Eric Hosmer, he can't play until the contract of the freaking Pittsburgh Pirates' draft pick is sorted out. The backup catcher is publicly complaining about playing time, a rant that might carry more weight if he hadn't let loose a day after his throwing error let the winning run score. The right fielder and highest-paid player is ready to go into the stands and fight the fans.

I don't generally believe managers make a lot of difference to a team's won-loss record. Pick any manager in baseball history, give them this roster, and perhaps the best ones win 70-75 games. But to me, this situation is where a manager can make a difference. He can set the tone, encourage the players, let them know that sloppy baseball will not be tolerated. As far as I can tell, Trey Hillman has not done any of that. The Royals still make the same dumb mistakes they have made all season; they are pretty much the same dumb mistakes they have made my entire adult life. I don't expect Hillman will be fired; Dayton Moore is not a knee-jerk reactionary, so Hillman will certainly get another year at least. But Moore should think about whether he wants the promising youngsters in the farm system to be exposed to this manager when they get to the bigs.

Nothing Is Better, Nothing Is Best

...Take heed of this and get plenty of rest.
(From "Nothing Was Delivered," The Basement Tapes)

Nothing is better than a walkoff homerun. So of course I missed David DeJesus's game-winner Saturday night, due to a family commitment. Silly family, get your priorities in order! Just kidding. I can only hope it won't be three more years until the next Royals' walkoff. Yes, that sums up recent Royals history nicely. Last walkoff homer--April 19, 2005.

On a side note, DeJesus's development this year is definitely one of the bright spots in this season. He has already set a career high in homers, and could have his first .300 season this year. He has also provided his usual solid defense and had played all three outfield positions, without complaining about being moved. And he does this for a relatively paltry $2.5 million. He has the highest OPS+ on the team (122), even better than Jose Guillen. Of course, this is the Royals we're talking about, so there has to be a black cloud for this silver lining. That would be David's age, 29 in December. Since most players peak between 26-29, it would seem that David will be declining over the next few years. This doesn't mean he won't be valuable in those years, but it is something the Royals will hopefully consider if they receive trade interest for DeJesus. If KC is really aiming for contending in 2010, it might be more helpful to receive a prospect who will be on the upswing then. I would prefer to keep him, because he is a fun player to watch and there is not a readily available replacement for him.

In today's game, it's too bad Trey Hillman apparently started his All-Star break early. Up 2-1 after the 6th, Hillman let Kyle Davies start the 7th. I have no problem with this move. Davies was pitching well. But after the tying run singled with two outs, it was time to bring in Ron Mahay to face lefty Jeff Clement (or whichever pinch-hitter was summoned; Mahay is effective against righties, too). Instead, Davies surrendered a homer to Clement. That would be .165-hitting Jeff Clement.

Trey, this is simple. You have a lead after 6 innings. Mahay. Ramon Ramirez. Joakim Soria. Win.

So when the Royals scored in the 8th, that should have made it a 3-1 game. Then the 9th inning's misplays (dropped popup, botched rundown) would not have mattered. Instead, they led to a loss to the AL's worst team.

So here we are, at the All-Star break. Due to a scheduling quirk, the Royals do not play again until Friday. That seems like a long time away. But the players deserve some time off, and I hope they will be able to come back and keep the weekend's momentum going. On the bright side, KC hits the break outside the AL Central basement, one game ahead of Cleveland. And at last year's ASB, the Royals were 38-50, 15 games back. This year, they are 43-53, 12 games back. So there has been a little improvement.

Fear not, loyal readers (both of you). I am planning to blog about the All-Star Game. Perhaps this year the Royals' representative will actually get to play.

Don't Fall Apart On Me Tonight

...Yesterday's just a memory/Tomorrow is never what it's supposed to be
(from "Don't Fall Apart On Me Tonight," Infidels)

When Tony Pena Jr. hits a home run, the Royals need to win that game. TPJ's bat has been a toothpick this year. KC can't afford to waste any offensive contribution he manages to give.

So it was slightly aggravating when Kyle Davies fell apart after receiving a 3-0 lead. OK, highly aggravating. OK, I unleashed a string of bad words.

Sometimes, though, strange things happen. Things like a 7-run inning from one of the worst offenses in the AL. Things like two nearly perfect innings from Joel Peralta, who has devolved into a mopup man this year.

Of course, there were also the things Royals fans have come to expect this year: perfection from Ron Mahay and Joakim Soria to close out a win.

The Royals needed this one badly. KC entered this series with a less-than-sterling 6-22 record against the Orioles since 2003. With four in Baltimore, four in Tampa (how 'bout them Rays? Best record in baseball!?!?) and three at home against the White Sox, I feared the Royals would undo all the good they accomplished in interleague play in less than two weeks.

If we learned anything about this team the last few days, it is that they have a resiliency that we haven't seen around here since 2003, at least. In previous seasons, a sloppy loss like last Sunday's home debacle against St. Loo or Tuesday's disaster in Baltimore would easily beget a double-digit losing streak. Instead, KC rallied for a win Monday, almost pulled one off Tuesday, and then got a nice win tonight.

While this is likely a function of simply having better players, I think a portion of the credit should go to Trey Hillman. I've ripped him before in this forum, but now I come to praise him for apparently creating an environment where this young team believes they have a chance to win. That's an important first step.

You Took My Reality And Cast It To The Wind

...and I ain't never gonna be the same again.
(from "Never Gonna Be The Same Again," Empire Burlesque)

It was a beautiful night at the old ballyard. Pleasant temps, low humidity, nice breeze to keep the air moving. A decent crowd despite the lack of a name opponent or a giveaway of any kind. The Royals were getting some hits, scoring some runs and getting a good pitching effort from the 11 Million Dollar Man, Gil Meche.

And then the wheels fell off.

Ron "Mayday" Mahay, attempting to finish off his second good inning of relief, coaxed a grounder out of The Amazing Josh Hamilton. Shortstop Mike Aviles scooped and threw for the third out. Except. Mark Teahen dropped it. Simply dropped it.

What followed was a whirlwind of bad managing, bad pitching and bad luck. Rany Jazayerli has aptly described what happened, but I would like to add my thoughts. And hey, it's my blog!

First, when Billy Butler was playing 1B earlier this year, Trey Hillman never failed to bring in a defensive replacement for him in the late innings. The Royals know that Butler is not yet a good major league first baseman. So where was the defensive replacement for Teahen, who only recently started playing first?

Career games at 1B: Billy Butler 34, Mark Teahen 21.

This was Hillman's first mistake. To be fair, I did not think at the beginning of the inning that it would matter. But I'm not paid to think about these things. And it was hardly the most egregious error.

With runners now at 1st and 2nd, with switch-hitter Milton Bradley up and a lefty on deck, Hillman called on righty Brett Tomko, who was moved to the bullpen just two weeks ago. Sure, Bradley hits lefties better than righties. But David Murphy, the next hitter, kills righties this year (.314/.541/.899). Why not save Tomko for the start of an inning and keep Mahay in or bring in Jimmy Gobble?

So, on an 0-2 pitch, Bradley doubles to right. Now it's 5-3 Royals. But hey, still two out, no need to panic. However, you might want to warm up closer Joakim Soria, who has been nigh unhittable this year. Murphy, who never should have faced Tomko, singled to drive in Bradley.

Now Hillman makes a move. In comes Yasuhiko Yabuta. To face righty Gerald Laird. Yabuta has been Ya-brutal against righties this year. Laird promptly breaks his bat but singles to center. Pinch-hitter Chris Shelton singles in the tying run before Yabuta gets the last out.

For reasons known only to Hillman, Yabuta was allowed to start the 9th against the top of the Ranger order. Hillman got what he deserved—Ian Kinsler doubled to start things. Ya-Brutal managed to get an out, a grounder to second, but that put Kinsler at third. In comes Ramon Ramirez, who has been the Royals' second- or third-best reliever this year (Leo Nunez, on the DL, is the other effective guy). He strikes out Hamilton (who had a bad night). Then, after Bradley is intentionally walked, Ramirez uncorks a pitch that catcher John Buck whiffs on. The Rangers take the lead on the passed ball, the Royals can't score in the 9th, and defeat is once again snatched from the jaws of victory.

So where was Soria? According to this morning's KC Star, he had a slight tightness in his back. Plus, he had pitched in three of the past four games (the horror!) and Hillman didn't want to work him further.

Soria threw 18 pitches Monday against the Yankees. He did not pitch Sunday.

You want to give him the night off, or rest him as much as possible? Fine. Let him get the last out of the 8th and make Ramirez your closer for one night. Better yet, leave Mahay (who has been dependable) in to finish the 8th. The odds were still good that he would have gotten one out before giving up four runs.

This loss was eerily similar to the disaster that befell the Royals two weeks ago, when they blew an 8-3 lead with two outs and no one on in the 8th against the Twins. The scary thing for Royals fans is that it appears Trey Hillman learned nothing from his mistakes that night.

The primary mistakes that night? Putting Ross Gload, normally a first baseman (and a good fielder) in right field and leaving Teahen (who played right field last year and some this year) at first. Bringing in homer-prone Joel Peralta to pitch to the tying run, then leaving him in to face slugger Justin Morneau in the 10th. Not using Soria even for one hitter to stop the Twins' rally, because he had pitched two days in a row.

About the only good thing to say regarding last night's run of mistakes is, unlike that Twins game, they did not extend a long losing streak. But now the Royals have two more losses than they should. No one is arguing they would contend this year. But there is no excuse for losing that game last night, there is no excuse for losing that Twins game. And there is no excuse for repeating these kind of mistakes again.

At least the Gates BBQ was tasty.