There'll Be A Time I Hear Tell

...when all will be well
(From "Lord Protect My Child," The Bootleg Series Vol. 1-3)

Is this the year? That's the question, of course. Will the Royals rise up and surprise an unsuspecting nation by reaching the playoffs for the first time in 24 years? Can the team that once employed luminaries like Ken Harvey, Kerry Robinson and Mark Redman make true blue believers throughout the Midwest rush to sporting good stores for official AL Central Champions merchandise? Will October be the time when "all will be well"?

OK, probably not. I'm not even sure they can compile a .500 record, although I think they will be close.

I do know the Royals came closer to .500 last year than they have since the magical summer of 2003. The last time before that they won even a modest 75 games? 2000. So this is a roster full of players who haven't had much success at the major league level. Not that that means they can't win, but it does make me wonder how they would handle a pennant race.

It's getting in a pennant race that's the trick. As I've said before, it looks like the division is evenly matched enough that any of the five teams can win it. So the Royals may be in a pennant race by default.

I wrote yesterday I was predicting a 79-83 record for the Royals this year. That's four games better than last year. I've had trouble all spring reconciling my heart with my head in regards to this team. In fact:

• My heart says that they can improve even more than that, since the roster seems to be upgraded offensively.
• My head says that the Royals still lack players who get on base consistently, which is the basis for any good offense.
• My heart says Alex Gordon and Billy Butler will have big years, while Jose Guillen is bound to improve his numbers, giving the Royals three big bats to go with Mike Jacobs.
• My head says Jose Guillen is in decline and still swings at everything. And speaking of Jacobs, my head also says his lack of plate discipline will offset the 30 or so homers he should hit.
• My heart says the Royals' impressive spring training offense is a sign of things to come.
• My head says those numbers are a result of high altitudes and thin air.

OK, that's enough debate on the offense. What about pitching and defense?

• My heart says Zack Greinke and Gil Meche will win 17-18 games each, and challenge for a Cy Young award.
• My head says neither one has won more than 15 games in a season.
• My heart says Kyle Davies will be the guy we saw in September (4-1, 2.27 ERA, 0.92 WHIP).
• My head says Kyle Davies will be the guy we saw before September (5-6, 5.43 ERA, 1.89 WHIP).
• My heart says the bullpen will make up for the losses of Ramon Ramirez and Leo Nunez with the help of Kyle Farnsworth and Juan Cruz.
• My head says Farnsworth was not good last year and Cruz is on his fifth team in seven years for a reason.
• My heart says the outfield defense will be improved, and Mike Aviles and Alex Gordon are at least average defenders on the left side.
• My head says Jose Guillen is still roaming right field, Coco Crisp has no arm, the Billy Butler/Mike Jacobs mix at first base is terrible, and the Royals have a third baseman playing second base. Oh, and John Buck can't throw anyone out and Miguel Olivo can't do any of the other stuff you want a catcher to do.

I suppose all of this internal debate is a sure sign the Royals will be around .500. But...if my heart is right more than my head, this could be an interesting season. We'll find out starting on Tuesday, now that the opener in Chicago has been postponed due to some more lovely spring weather.

A Few Thoughts on the Other Divisions

I'm not going to give a detailed breakdown of each team like I did for the AL Central, but here are my predictions for the other divisions, along with some thoughts.

AL East

Boston
Tampa Bay
New York
Toronto
Baltimore

The Yankees in third? Well, call me crazy, but I'm suspicious of a team that depends on a 37-year-old catcher, a 34-year-old shortstop and a 35-year-old left fielder without much quality depth behind those guys. Also, it looks like they'll start a rookie in center field. Oh yeah, their best player is going to miss the first month of the season, at least. And a team that expects A.J. Burnett to stay healthy is a team that is going to be disappointed. The Yankees will still contend, but I think the Rays and Red Sox are just a little better.

AL West

Los Angeles
Oakland
Texas
Seattle

I really want to pick the Rangers to do better, but I just can't see it with that pitching staff. I really want to pick the Athletics to win the division, but I just can't see it with that pitching staff. So I'll stick with the Angels for this season.

NL East

Philadelphia
New York
Atlanta
Florida
Washington

Ho hum. Another year, another Mets team that can't quite win the division. At least they fixed up the bullpen, or tried to. The good news for the Phils and Mets is that the other three teams here are varying degrees of bad, so this is likely a two-team race.

NL Central

Chicago
Cincinnati
St. Louis
Milwaukee
Houston
Pittsburgh

The Cubs are pretty clear favorites here, but the Reds are most intriguing team to me. They might have more good young players than any team outside Tampa Bay. I doubt they can catch the Cubs, but I think they might be a little better than the Cardinals and Brewers. The bottom two teams in this division are pretty much trainwrecks.

NL West

Los Angeles
Arizona
San Francisco
Colorado
San Diego

A full season of Manny Ramirez ought to give the edge to the Dodgers here. I might be giving the Giants' offense too much credit, but their pitching looks pretty good to me. If they had any sort of hitting, they could be contenders.

Postseason

AL playoffs: Boston vs. Minnesota, Tampa Bay (wildcard) vs. Los Angeles
ALCS: Boston vs. Tampa Bay

NL playoffs: Philadelphia vs. Chicago, New York (wildcard) vs. Los Angeles
NLCS: Chicago vs. Los Angeles

World Series: Boston defeats Los Angeles, while sports fans everywhere pray they never hear about Manny Ramirez facing his old team again.

A Few Thoughts on the AL Central

I thought I should throw a few predictions out there before Opening Day, which has really sneaked up on me. I blame the Kansas City weather, which as featured several cold mornings, plus several inches of snow a week ago today. It's been hard to get into a baseball frame of mind. At least today was nice and basebally, even though tomorrow brings another cold front. Grrr.

Anyway, as I've said before, I think the AL Central will be the most balanced division in baseball this season. I really believe anyone could finish first, even your Kansas City Royals. Also, I believe anyone can finish last (yes, even your Kansas City Royals). But here's my best guess at what will happen:

1. Minnesota, 87-75
2. Cleveland, 85-77
3. Kansas City, 79-83
4. Detroit, 76-86
5. Chicago, 75-87

Minnesota Twins

Last year: 88-75, 2nd place, lost one-game playoff for division title
Key losses: 3B Mike Lamb, SP Livan Hernandez, RP Dennys Reyes
Key additions: 3B Joe Crede

The Twins, God love 'em, just keep putting a solid team on the field and hoping for the best. Starting in 2001, they've been above .500 every year except a 79-83 hiccup in 2007. A presumably full season from Francisco Liriano (he had 14 starts last year as he recovered from Tommy John surgery) should help the Twins stay near the top of the Central this year, too. Signing Joe Crede to play third should help out the big guns in the lineup, Justin Morneau and Joe Mauer. As always, Joe Nathan is around to finish off every save situation. As a Royals fan, I watch the Twins with a mixture of admiration and envy, and I hope the Royals will be in the Twins' situation someday: a good team every year.

Cleveland Indians

Last year: 81-81, 3rd place
Key losses: 3B Casey Blake, SP CC Sabathia, SP Paul Byrd
Key additions: SP Carl Pavano, SP Joe Smith, 3B Mark DeRosa

The Indians seem to be the trendy pick to win the division, and I think they will certainly be good. I might even agree that on paper, they look like the best team in the division. But for some reason, I just can't pull the trigger on them. Wait, there is a reason: a rotation that, after 2008 AL Cy Young winner Cliff Lee and 2007 sensation Fausto Carmona, is not very impressive. Even Carmona is a question mark after he struggled in 2008. And who knows if Lee can duplicate what he did last year (22-3, 2.54 ERA, 175 ERA+)? After that, it's Carl Pavano (ask any Yankee fan about this oft-injured pitcher) and Anthony Reyes (still waiting for him to show he can live up to the potential he showed in 2006). On the other hand, the offense should be good, with the division's best player in CF Grady Sizemore, a slugging 1B in Victor Martinez, and underrated RF Shin-Soo Choo. I just don't think they can do enough to overcome that rotation.

Kansas City Royals

Last year: 75-87, 4th place
Key losses: RP Ramon Ramirez, RP Leo Nunez, 2B Mark Grudzielanek
Key additions: CF Coco Crisp, 1B Mike Jacobs, RP Juan Cruz, RP Kyle Farnsworth, IF Willie Bloomquist

Progress continues. We hope. I fully admit that picking this team for third may be an optimistic homer move. It certainly looks like the offense has improved, at least as far as power goes. On-base percentage will still be a question mark. The pitching staff will need at least one starter to step up, and the bullpen will need some sorting out after it was shuffled in the offseason. I don't want to get too in-depth here, as I plan a post tomorrow with a more detailed look at the Royals' hopes this season. But I will say that I still believe the Royals are improving and at least I can say (with a straight face) they have a shot to contend this year.

Detroit Tigers

Last year: 74-88, 5th place
Key losses: C Ivan Rodriguez, DH Gary Sheffield, SS Edgar Renteria, RP Todd Jones
Key additions: C Gerald Laird, SS Adam Everett, RP Brandon Lyon

Remember about a year ago, when everyone thought the Tigers would score 1,000 runs in the 2008 season? Yeah. Didn't happen, although they did score plenty (821, 4th in the AL). So the Tigers decided to emphasize defense, picking up no-hit, all-glove shortstop Adam Everett and moving Carlos Guillen (Detroit's version of Mark Teahen, as he has gone from SS to 1B to 3B in his time with the Tigers) to left field. I guess the latter is a defensive move, since Guillen has played 2 whole games in the outfield in his 11-year career and Comerica Park is known for its spacious outfield. The defense needs to improve to help out the rotation, which is full of question marks. The biggest is, what the hell happened to Justin Verlander last year? His strikeouts dropped by 20 from 2007, while his walks went up by 20. His ERA went up by more than a full run. Any hope the Tigers have of winning the division rests on his return to form. After him, the Tigers will have Edwin Jackson, who won 14 games for Tampa last year, and promising youngsters Armando Galarraga and Rick Porcello (2007's top draft pick). But can they become big league pitchers fast enough to help Verlander and Jeremy Bonderman, if he is ever healthy again?

Chicago White Sox

Last year: 89-74, 1st place, won one-game playoff for division title
Key losses: SS Orlando Cabrera, 3B Joe Crede, OF Nick Swisher, SP Javier Vazquez
Key additions: IF Brent Lillibridge, SP Bartolo Colon

This may be a biased, anti-homer pick, as the White Sox are always the AL Central team I love to hate. But I'm putting them here because they are replacing 3/4 of their infield. Rookie Chris Getz takes over at second for Alexei Ramirez, who moves to shortstop to replace Orlando Cabrera, while Josh Fields gets to show us if he really can be a star at third base. I'm also leery of an offense depending on a 33-year-old Paul Konerko, a 35-year-old Jermaine Dye, and a 38-year-old Jim Thome. How long can they keep going? I'm also leery of a rotation depending on Bartolo Colon, who hasn't been good since 2005, and 38-year-old Jose Contreras. Besides, the White Sox went from 72 wins in 2007 to 89 last year; you would expect them to fall off some under any circumstances.