There's No Success Like Failure

...and that failure's no success at all.
(From "Love Minus Zero/No Limit," Bringing It All Back Home)

Interesting and revealing quote from the Star this morning about Brayan Pena:

"...manager Trey Hillman continues to insist:

'By the end of this season, I want to be able to accurately answer the question of whether we think he can be a front-line guy or is he what he is right now — a backup, a bat off the bench and an occasional DH. He gives you a great (at-bat).'

That prompts the question: Why not play Peña at least four or five times a week over the final seven weeks to provide an answer?

'The argument against that,' Hillman said, 'is (the desire) to continue utilizing a guy who has a lot of power production and helps generate runs and throws out base stealers better when you’re playing teams that do run in a Miguel Olivo.

'That’s the argument. And trying to go with the difficult balance of, yeah, you’d like to find that out (about Peña) but, at the same time, you’d like to win ballgames.' "

This is exactly the problem the Royals have now and have been re-enacting for 15 years (at least). They never fully commit to finding out what their young players can do, preferring instead to sign veterans and hope those players can have some sort of career year. If not, at least they're theoretically solid players.

The problem with this process is that the Royals are never going to be able to afford difference-making veterans, so the guys they end up getting are usually on the decline. Even worse, they block the Royals from finding out if they have any worthwhile prospects. And they seem to fill the front office with false hope, the odd idea that the team is a few players away and a .500 record is the goal.

Frankly, I'm tired of the Royals shooting for a .500 record. That doesn't get you anything. Even in the AL Central. Yes, the Royals need to get to .500 before they can be a winning team, but the goal is and always should be a World Series title. Quit building teams that might be .500 if things go well and start trying to win. Let's not forget, this year's team was supposed to be one that would be around .500 and "maybe contend if things go well." Instead, things have gone straight to hell, and the Royals are likely not going to be much better record-wise than their 2005-2006 predecessors.

If the Royals are going to stink, I'd rather they do it with young players. I don't mean I want them to call up Eric Hosmer and Mike Moustakas, but could we at least see Kila Ka'aihue instead of Mike Jacobs or Jose Guillen? Last year, when the Royals made Ka'aihue a September callup, they still managed to ignore him, only letting him play in 12 games and get 24 plate appearances. They did this so Ross Gload could keep playing, apparently.

Now the Royals are giving Brayan Pena the same treatment. Right now, there are 3 Royal hitters on the roster with an OPS+ better than 100. Billy Butler and Alberto Callaspo get to play all the time and hit in the middle of the order. The other guy? He has fewer plate appearances this season than Tony Pena Jr. and Luis Hernandez combined (those would be OPS+ numbers of 19 and -33, respectively). He has roughly half the plate appearances of Mitch Maier (75 OPS+). Even worse, he has a fourth of the combined plate appearances of Olivo and John Buck (93 and 77 OPS+, respectively). Ladies and gentlemen, Brayan Pena. A

Can Brayan sustain that offense if he plays every day? I don't know (although his minor league numbers look consistently good). But shouldn't the Royals try to find out? This team needs to find undervalued talent wherever they can, so they can save what money they do have to see if they can sign an actual difference-maker or two. Buck is making $2.9 million this year, and Olivo is making $2.7 million. Pena is making $405,000 and outhitting them both.

One other thing about Hillman's quote above: yes, Olivo does have a decent power output this year--if you look at home runs. Olivo leads the team in homers with 16. Yet he only has 12 doubles (and 4 triples). Even though is slugging percentage is a respectable .473, his on-base percentage is low (.272). The man has walked 9 times in 86 games. And yes, Olivo has been good against base-stealers this year, nailing 30% of them (the league average is 24%). But Olivo also has made 6 errors, allowed 10 passed balls, and is the main catcher for a team with 67 wild pitches this year, which leads the AL by almost 20. Pena's defense is supposed to be suspect, but once again, this is something the Royals need to find out before the end of the season.

Win ballgames? Sure, the Royals should try to do that the rest of the year. Put forth a professional effort and all that. But who's to say they wouldn't have a better chance with Pena playing more often?

When You Gonna Wake Up

...and strengthen the things that remain?
(From "When You Gonna Wake Up," Slow Train Coming)

I was off work last Friday, the non-waiver trade deadline for major league baseball. I was pretty excited to be able to follow along as all the big trades were made, and I was anxious to see what the Royals would do to improve the organization. Obviously, with the major league team in freefall, I did not expect them to add pieces at the major league level, but I was hoping that the Royals could improve the upper levels of the minor league system, which is not exactly teeming with prospects. Baseball America's ranking of the Royals' top 10 prospects last fall included only two players who are at Omaha this season, Kila Ka'aihue and Carlos Rosa.

Instead, the Royals chose to stand pat. Well, that's not entirely true, since they did pick up Josh Anderson, an outfielder whom Detroit had waived. However, Anderson's .282 on-base percentage and .315 slugging percentage do not have me expecting great things. Anyway, the Royals had some trading chips, but did not cash them in.

Obviously, we out here in bloggerland don't know what offers the Royals entertained, or what trades they proposed. Perhaps they were aggressively shopping players but were not offered enough in return. The bottom line is, they didn't get anything done, and the roster remains essentially unchanged from the group that has gone 23-53 since May 7 (that's the worst record in baseball in that timeframe, by the way).

Even worse, the Royals didn't even provide themselves with any payroll flexibility for the coming offseason. According to the awesome Cot's MLB contracts website, the Royals have $51.6 million in payroll obligations for next season, with 10 players eligible for arbitration (meaning their salaries will almost certainly be going up). Since the team's payroll is supposedly maxed out at this year's $70 million, it looks like the Royals will be bringing pretty much the same team back next year. So, if you believe the 29 games at the start of the season were the "real" Royals and the 76 games since have been a fluke, you should be thrilled. On the other hand, if you have a basic grasp of logic and statistics, you are wondering what the 2011 Royals will look like.

This is yet another reason I wish the Royals had really tried to get younger (and a little cheaper for some flexibility in the next couple of offseasons). Take a look at the team's active roster. Go on, I'll wait. OK, note that there are 10 players born in the 1970s. That's not a knock on the 70s--I was born during that decade. But I'm not a major league player, and therefore exiting my prime years as an athlete like those guys are. It's a sad fact of baseball life: you peak around age 27, have a few years just under that level, then start the decline. Obviously, there are exceptions, but that's the general rule.

Compare the Royals to a team with a similar record this year, a similar market size, and a similar recent history: the Pittsburgh Pirates. The Pirates were very active before the trade deadline, making 4 trades in the days leading up to July 31, plus a couple more earlier this season. As a result of those trades, Pittsburgh now has an active roster with ONE player who was born in the 1970s. Most of the Pirates are 24-25 years old now, meaning their best years are at least theoretically ahead of them. If I were a Pirate fan, I would be excited about the next few years.

The Royals have a decent core of players who are approaching age 27, but not nearly enough. Here's who I would consider that core: Brian Bannister, Billy Butler, Alex Gordon, Zack Greinke, Luke Hochevar, Joakim Soria. And you could throw Alberto Callaspo in there, too. The sad thing is, Bannister is 27 now and Greinke and Hochevar turn 26 this year. The Royals need to find ways to build around this core, and they need to do it soon. Or we'll be looking forward to 2015.

First Half Report Cards: The Position Players

Since the second half of the season is already underway, let's get to the grades post-haste. The rules are the same as they were for the pitchers--the number after a player's name was my preseason rank of their importance to the Royals and each player is graded on my expectations for him coming into the season.

Willie Bloomquist (12): A-
Has been surprisingly productive and useful. I have no complaints and really wouldn't have minded if the Royals just used him at shortstop the rest of the year.

Billy Butler (2): A-
One of three regulars with an OPS+ over 100. The homer total (8) might not be as high as you'd like, but 27 doubles is really good (tied for fourth in the AL). And he's only 23, so there is a good chance those numbers will go up. Plus, he's proven to be a decent defensive first baseman.

Alberto Callaspo (11): A-
The silver lining in the black cloud of Alex Gordon's injury, which moved Teahen to third and opened a spot for Callaspo. The Royals' OPS+ leader at 113, Callaspo has displayed surprising power. Still doesn't walk much, but at least he doesn't strike out much, either. His defense hasn't been good, though.

Brayan Pena (13): A-
Should play more. Let's find out if he really can hit.

Mark Teahen (7): A-
Filled in well at third base after Alex Gordon went down. Quietly having a very solid season (111 OPS+). I like Teahen a lot, but it wouldn't be the worst thing in the world if he were traded in the next couple of weeks; he should bring some sorely needed AAA or MLB-ready talent in return.

Miguel Olivo (9): C+
Why you would ever throw him anything but a slider in the dirt is beyond me, but somehow he leads the team in homers with 13. It's not his fault no one else here can hit homers. Still has an amazingly low three walks this year, which knocks his grade down some. Also, may be the only catcher in the majors who can't, you know, catch (8 passed balls this year, plus the Royals have 47 wild pitches this year).

Coco Crisp (3): C-
Started the season well, and then tailed off, although he was probably playing through the injuries that eventually ended his season. I still feel like trading for him was a good move, but since it's unlikely Crisp will be a Royal next year, I have to say Boston won that deal.

Jose Guillen (5): C-
I waffled between a C- and a D+ here. On the bright side, Guillen is walking more this season and has yet to have a public blowup, so I gave him a break on his grade. Besides, what if he somehow sees this?

Mike Jacobs (8): D+
I liked the trade that brought him here. I was wrong. Please forgive me, dear reader. Almost half the outs he's made this year have been by strikeout (82 0f 200). Seeing the 13 homers he's hit this year (counting tonight's) hasn't been worth all the terrible at-bats and crappy defense.

David DeJesus (4): D
What the heck happened here? His offensive numbers are down, and his defense seems to have fallen off some too. He's only 29, so he shouldn't be falling off this fast. I think DDJ will have a good second half and this season won't look so bad as a whole.

Mitch Maier (N/A): D
OK, I'm convinced. He can't hit.

Tony Pena (14): F-----
I had no expectations for TPJ, and he has met them. Sure, he was designated for assignment, but no one is going to pick him up. So he'll go to Omaha and bide his time, and soon enough Bloomquist or Betancourt will get hurt, and Pena will be back. Maybe we should call him Freddy or Jason.

Mike Aviles (6): Incomplete
Maybe I'm too nice here, but now that we know he was injured pretty much from the get-go, his miserable season makes more sense. This injury just killed the Royals, since it opened the door for a roster featuring Tony Pena Jr., Luis Hernandez AND Tug Hulett, and then led to one of the worst trades in Royals' history. Nobody expected Aviles to duplicate his 2008 numbers, but at the start of the season it looked like the Royals would at least be above-average at shortstop. Now, Royals shortstops have an OPS of .503 this season. Not slugging, OPS. Ugh.

John Buck: (10): Incomplete
90 at-bats just isn't enough to make a judgement, but I think we all know what to expect from Buck by now. I like Buck, but frankly I'd rather see Brayan Pena as the backup catcher. Or even the starter.

Alex Gordon (1): Incomplete
Alex's hip was probably the most damaging injury in the Royals' season, which has seen its share. At the beginning of the season, I felt any Royals offensive improvement depended on Gordon and Butler becoming major league-level three and four hitters. Butler has progressed pretty well, but this looks like a lost season for Gordon, who will not be able to play every day for a while even though he is off the DL to start the second half. On the other hand, maybe his injury rehab will prove beneficial, giving him a chance to remember he's got a lot of talent.

Ryan Freel (N/A): Incomplete
Hasn't done anything to make me dislike him yet.

Luis Hernandez (N/A): Incomplete
Eh. I guess he and TPJ were on the roster at the same time to prove they weren't the same person.

Tug Hulett (N/A): Incomplete
Who knows? We never saw enough of him to say. It was very important Hernandez and TPJ get to play more.

First Half Report Cards: The Pitchers

The first half of the season is in the books. Thank God. Let's see where we stand as the second half of the season starts. These grades are based on my expectation for each player at the start of the season. The number in parentheses after the player name is where I ranked their importance to the Royals at the start of the season (pitchers and position players were ranked separately). If a player was not on the Opening Day roster, they were not ranked.
Today, the pitchers; tomorrow, position players.

Zack Greinke (1): A
The Royals' star pupil tailed off slightly in May and June, but by then he had set the bar almost impossibly high. Zack is easily the ace of the staff and might be the most exciting Royal since, I don't know, Bo Jackson? The difference is that Zack is harnessing his incredible talent, while Bo only showed us some flashes of his. Zack has to be the favorite for the AL Cy Young award, an amazing feat on a team that still has a chance to lose 100 games.

Brian Bannister (N/A): A-
Perhaps he was due for a bounceback after a tough year last year. The Royals must hope that Banny has figured out how to pitch effectively despite not having outstanding stuff. Still, a rotation that has Bannister at the back end is a pretty good rotation.

Luke Hochevar (N/A): B
His first two outings were horrible, but since then he's been pretty good (52 IP, 4.15 ERA, 24 K, 15 BB). Needs to cut down on the homers he allows (9 so far this season). Will probably never be the star you'd hope to get with an #1 overall draft pick, but he has shown the ability to be a decent major league starter, which is still valuable.

Jamey Wright (10): C
Had some good outings, especially early in the year. After that, Hillman decided perhaps Wright was a setup guy. That didn't work, so it was back to middle relief. Hasn't done much to get on my bad side, but I wouldn't be signing him to a long-term contract, either. Like most middle relievers, he's just a guy.

John Bale (N/A): C-
Nothing much to report here.

Roman Colon (N/A): C-
Hasn't done much to impress me either way.

Kyle Farnsworth (9): C-
See Sidney Ponson's entry. Sure, the Opening Day homer to Jim Thome was horrible, but he never should have been placed in that situation by Hillman to begin with. Professor Farnsworth compiled some decent numbers, but they were mainly in mop-up situations. If I were to grade the fact the Royals signed him to begin with, I would be giving an "F." But he hasn't been horrible, just not worth the $4.25 million he's getting this year. It would have been nice to spend that money somewhere else.

Gil Meche (2): C-
An odd season for the Royals' highest-paid pitcher. He started out well, then had some rough starts, possibly because of a bad back. Then he had another stretch of solid starts and is now scuffling a little bit again. It doesn't help that his manager seems willing to pitch him until his arm falls off.

Sidney Ponson (N/A): C-
As the great Al Bundy once said, "I haven't expected much, and Lord knows I've gotten it." When you sign a mediocre major leaguer at the end of spring training because he had a good showing in the World Baseball Classic, you don't expect Cy Young. He had a couple of decent starts early before being moved to the bullpen. Ponson has allowed at least one run in each of his 11 appearances this year.

Joakim Soria (3): C-
Remember, these grades aren't based on just performance, but performance measured against expectations. Now, it's not Soria's fault he got hurt, just as it's not his fault Trey Hillman seemingly picked the worst times to use him before he got hurt. But Soria just hasn't had much impact on this season, which speaks to the Royals' inability to score runs and get leads as well as to the stupidity of using your best pitcher to protect 3-run leads in the 9th (or, more often in Soria's case, to "get some work" in a 12-3 game). On the bright side, Soria did look much better in his last few outings before the break.

Bruce Chen (N/A): D+
Meh. Two OK starts, two bad ones. Organizational depth at its finest!

Ron Mahay (7): D+
Inexplicably was not traded last year when his value was highest. Now he's a moderately effective reliever who could be dealt at the trade deadline, but probably won't bring much in trade since he's a free agent after the season.

Kyle Davies (4): D
Coming off that great September last season, Davies has made a case as Most Disappointing Royal (non-injured division). A 5.76 ERA, 14 homers allowed in 14 games, and 41 walks against 54 strikeouts all make me wonder if Davies will ever amount to anything at the major league level. To be fair, he has done well at Omaha since being demoted in June. And he is still only 25, so there is still a little hope.

Robinson Tejeda (6): D
Showed some potential last year, but has regressed this year, especially in the control department. Already has more walks than he did all last season.

Juan Cruz (5): D-
Another entry in the Most Disappointing Royal contest. This is the one move Dayton Moore made in the offseason that was widely viewed as a positive, which just goes to show that Joaquin Andujar was right ("youneverknow"). I don't know if he's lost velocity, control or just had a long slump, but his strikeout rate is way down from where it has been in his career.

Horacio Ramirez (11): F
An "F" signing, and an "F" performance. At least it only took the Royals 19 appearances to figure it out (/eyeroll).

Doug Waechter (8): Incomplete
Only pitched in 3 games before getting hurt.

A Little More Ranting

A few more thoughts on the Betancourt trade...

1. I failed to mention that Betancourt's defense doesn't make up for his offensive liabilities. Defensive stats in baseball are still kind of rough, and I have a hard time wrapping my head around the really advanced ones. That doesn't mean they are not accurate or valuable, just that they're complex. But every defensive stat I've seen in reference to this trade makes Betancourt look like a below-average shortstop. I would feel better about acquiring a below-average hitter at a prime defensive position if he were actually an above-average fielder. But he's not.

2. Perhaps Dayton Moore thinks OBP stands for "Outs Batting Percentage" and therefore thinks a lower number is better. I hate to harp on this, but it's very frustrating for me because it is such a basic concept. You cannot score runs without players who get on base. And the Royals seemingly seek out players who cannot get on base. With Betancourt on board, the Royals could conceivably run out a lineup most days with three players who do not get on base even 30% of the time: Betancourt, Miguel Olivo, and Mike Jacobs. Of course, Moore got all three of these guys. Trey Hillman could also let Mitch Maier start in the outfield; that would give the Royals four guys who get on base less than 30% of the time. At least Moore didn't acquire him.

3. I always thought teams that were out of it by the All-Star Break were supposed to acquire prospects, not trade away a couple of them to fill a position that could have been filled for the remainder of the season by someone already on the roster. And what does it say about Betancourt that the Mariners, only 4.5 games out in their division this morning, traded away their starting shortstop for two minor leaguers who won't help them win this year? It tells me they were sick of him.

Wisdom Is Thrown Into Jail

...it rots in a cell, is misguided as hell, leaving no one to pick up a trail
(From "Political World," Oh Mercy)

The Royals have traded for shortstop Yuniesky Betancourt, and frankly, I don't understand why. We know Dayton Moore has had a mancrush on Betancourt for a while, since he supposedly once wanted to trade Billy Butler to Seattle for him, a deal every Royal fan should be thankful never happened.

In my opinion, the Royals' biggest problem this year is offense; specifically, an inability to get on base. The Royals could survive their lack of power if they were getting on base more regularly, but of course they have the worst on-base percentage in the American League (in fact, they are tied with San Francisco for the worst in baseball). Betancourt is unlikely to do anything to help that. He currently has an OBP of .278. That's horrible. In fact, the only Royal regular with a lower OBP is catcher Miguel Olivo, who is at .272 and can claim he has reached base on strikeouts as often as he has on walks this season (3 of each). But at least Olivo is leading the team in homers with 13. Betancourt has never even reached double digits in a season in that category.

Betancourt is currently on the disabled list with a hamstring injury, but that is no excuse for such a horrendous OBP. And this is who Betancourt is. He's never had an OBP over .310 in a season. Even for someone who's played in a pitcher's park, he has little power; his highest slugging percentage was .418 in 2007. And he doesn't even steal bases well, with only 24 in his five seasons, against 20 times caught stealing.

Essentially, the Royals have added another player with no special offensive skill, a player who in fact is below league average offensively. Betancourt's OPS+ is 63 this season (100 is league average). That's a couple of points better than Mitch Maier. That's not good enough. Although he has averaged an 88 OPS+ in his three full MLB seasons, that's still below average.

Even worse, Betancourt is 27, so this is theoretically his peak season. He is unlikely to get any better, and in fact will probably decline from his already modest offensive output. And his contract runs through 2011, with a club option for 2012, meaning the Royals are likely stuck with this on-base sinkhole for two seasons.

And I haven't even mentioned the fact the Royals gave up not one, but two minor league pitchers for this. One of those pitchers, Danny Cortes, was considered one of the Royals' best pitching prospects, even though he has struggled at the AA level this year. Look for him to crack the Mariners' rotation about the time the Royals decline that 2012 option on Betancourt.

Finally, I don't understand this move in the big picture of the major league roster. Betancourt's offensive numbers are not even as good as Willie Bloomquist's have been this season. Sure, Bloomquist isn't really a shortstop, but the Royals have already made clear they don't consider defense a priority. Presumably, Betancourt will be the fulltime shortstop and Bloomquist will go back to filling in where needed at multiple positions, thereby weakening an already pitiful offense. And this is also doesn't make sense for next year, when Mike Aviles will at some point return from his Tommy John surgery. Aviles may never be the offensive player he was last year, but he figures to be better than Betancourt. Yet he may now be without a position, since the Royals are unlikely to move him to second and replace Alberto Callaspo.

Then again, Callaspo is one of three full-time players on the Royals roster with an OPS+ over 100. So perhaps he is targeted for replacement too; he obviously does not fit with the Royals' team concept.

How Does It Freel?

The Royals have traded for infielder/outfielder Ryan Freel. In my last post, I almost advocated the Royals pick up Freel, who had been designated for assignment by the Cubs. I figured he'd clear waivers and be a free agent, though. Apparently the Royals weren't sure, so they will be giving up a player to be named later. That's the only part of this deal I don't like. Sure, the Royals won't be giving up a top prospect, but I hate to give up any minor leaguer for a stopgap.

I'm reserving full judgement until I see who the Royals give up and if this leads to any other moves at the major league level. When I was thinking the Royals should add Freel, it was with the assumption they would release Tony Pena Jr. or send Luis Hernandez to the minor leagues, put Willie Bloomquist at shortstop full time, and use Freel as a fourth outfielder. If they do that, I think this is an OK move, although it's not going to vault the Royals into contention.

On the other hand, if this is a precursor to a trade of Mark Teahen or David DeJesus, I am not happy because there is no way Freel can replace their offense. And offense is one area the Royals cannot afford to weaken.

At least the Royals have added another layer of crazy to their team. With Jose Guillen, Kyle Farnsworth and Miguel Olivo already on the roster, I feel sorry for any team that tries to start something with the Royals.

All things considered though, I'd be more impressed if the Royals had added Anna Friel. I'd certainly be going to more games...