Tomorrow Is Never What It's Supposed To Be

(from "Don't Fall Apart On Me Tonight," Infidels)

It's easy to say now, but back in January when the Royals announced the "Our Time" slogan for this season, I was a little worried. I didn't think it was a bad slogan, just a bit presumptuous. My first thought was that if I were a Detroit Tigers fan, I'd be laughing my butt off at that. But even more than that, it seemed to me like it was tempting fate just a little bit. Like any Royals fan, I was excited for this season, although my heart liked the team's chances a lot more than my head did.

Despite the emphasis on statistical analysis these days (an emphasis I definitely support), there are things that can't be quantified. Things like...whatever you want to call it: karma, reaping what you sow, or just getting what's coming to you. And a franchise with one winning season in the last 17 proclaiming that they are going to win right now seems more than a little hubristic to me.

Obviously, I can't say that a slogan caused the rash of injuries that has befallen the Royals in spring training so far. After last year's basically injury-free campaign, they were probably due to have a major injury or two this year. But it's a little concerning that the season is two weeks away and the Royals are already down two catchers and a closer.

Joakim Soria's (probable) impending Tommy John surgery will get the most attention around baseball, but Salvador Perez's torn knee ligament and the possibility he could miss three months is a bigger deal to me. Between Jonathan Broxton and Greg Holland, I think the Royals can cover for the loss of Soria pretty easily. Closer is an overrated position, but Broxton has experience there and Holland was quite good last year (and has been excellent this spring, too). Heck, it might be helpful for the future if Holland gets some experience closing games this year.

The injury to Perez really hurts. Here's a player whom the Royals thought so highly of that just a few weeks ago, they signed him to a five-year contract after only 39 major-league games. For someone so young , he certainly seems to have the full respect of the pitching staff and the coaches. It's hard to replace someone like that, even if it's only for three months.

The Royals proved how hard it is by trading for Humberto Quintero and outfielder Jason Bourgeois on Tuesday. Quintero has a reputation as a good defensive catcher, but he can't hit at all. He'll split time with Brayan Pena until Perez is back. Pena can hit a little but isn't much defensively, but even if the Royals combined the best attributes of both, I don't think they would match what Perez can do. To me, that puts a serious dent in "Our Time."

The addition of Bourgeois is a little puzzling to me. Here's a 30-year-old outfielder who can run well, play all three outfield positions (and has played second base, too!), doesn't walk much, and put up an 89 OPS+ last year. I think the Royals already have that guy, and his name is Mitch Maier (and Maier has the advantage of batting left-handed, too). When you compare their career numbers, it's hard to see how Bourgeois has any advantage over Maier:

Bourgeois: 192 games, .262/.307/.324, 2 HRs, 22 RBI, 46 SB

Maier: 328 games, .253/.332/.346, 8 HR, 86 RBI, 13 SB

It will be interesting to see if the Royals view Bourgeois as an alternative to Maier, or if the consider him organizational depth. He probably is ahead of Jarrod Dyson in the pecking order, but it's hard to see how he's clearly better than Maier. He likely has more foot speed, which is always nice in Kauffman Stadium's spacious outfield, but Maier seems to be a better hitter. It is possible the Royals could keep both and only have Yuniesky Betancourt as a backup infielder.

In the meantime, we have to hope that the injury bug moves on from Surprise. The Royals already faced an uphill battle to win the division before this rash of injuries, so the possibility of it really being "Our Time" was small to begin with. Any more injuries to key players could be the end of that idea before the season even begins.

Catching Up (Again)

Yep, I'm still here. Although this coming season is the most-anticipated Royals season since at least 2004, it certainly seemed like this winter sped by (perhaps not having massive snowfalls like the last couple of winters helped). Anyway, with spring training underway and Opening Day right around the corner, let's discuss some of the offseason Royals news.

-Yuniesky Betancourt

I couldn't summon the strength to write about this when it happened, I think. It appears that the Royals just can't quit Yuniesky Betancourt. On the bright side, it's only one year and $2 million. Hey, it's not my money. And he obviously won't be starting at shortstop very often, unless the unthinkable happens and Alcides Escobar gets hurt. But the idea of Yuni as a defensive replacement at a position he's never played in the majors (third base) or played sparingly seven years ago (second base) is concerning at best. My main concern is that Johnny Giavotella gets off to a slow start with the bat, the Royals pull the plug on him after a month, and we're treated to Yuni starting at second base for 130 games. At that point, I might prefer Chris Getz. It probably won't happen, but we've seen the Royals do plenty of dumb things through the years.

-Jose Mijares

This was an under-the-radar signing, but a good one, I think. The Royals did have a solid bullpen last year, but one weakness was the lack of a lefty reliever who could get lefty hitters out. I like Tim Collins and think he has a good chance to be a useful reliever in the future, but if the Royals intend to contend this year, they needed an upgrade in the LOOGY (Left-handed One Out GuY, if you didn't know) department. Mijares should provide that.

-Salvador Perez

Signing Perez to a contract extension after only 39 major league games might seem risky, but the terms of this contract are so favorable to the Royals there is almost no risk. But don't feel bad for Perez--he's 21 and set to make at least $7 million over the next 5 years. The good news for the Royals is that even if Perez never really hits, he is good enough defensively to be worth the money. The better news for the Royals is that, if things go according to plan, they have cost certainty at the catcher position for years to come. Since the Royals will always be on a budget, it's nice to know what the starting catcher will be making in, say, 2016. And the best news for the Royals actually happened on the other side of the state, when Yadier Molina signed a 5-year, $75 million contract extension.

I don't pretend to know if Perez will hit as well as Molina. I will say this: as a 21-year-old rookie in 2004, Molina hit .267/.329/.356 in 151 plate appearances. Last year, as a 21-year-old rookie, Perez hit .331/.361/.473. I'm not sayin', I'm just sayin'. I actually don't expect Perez to hit that well for a full season (indeed, Molina's offense declined for two straight years before bouncing back), but he's probably going to hit a few homers just because he's a big, strong guy. And at a premium defensive position, he's very good already. If and when the Royals are winners, I think Perez is going to play a large part.

You're An Idiot, Babe

...it's a a wonder that you still know how to breathe

(From "Idiot Wind," Blood On The Tracks)

I try not to write in anger. But today's news that Fox Sports Kansas City fired Frank White from their TV broadcasts really infuriates me.

For whatever reason, at the same time as the Royals improve on the field, they are doing a terrible job in the public relations department. So far this offseason, they have irritated their fans by cancelling the annual FanFest event and then followed that up by firing possibly the most popular player in Royals history. Sure, it was technically FSKC firing him, but obviously if the Royals wanted him on TV next year, he'd be on TV.

White told 610's Nick Wright that he was fired for being "too negative" about the team. This is a load of horsepucky, and frankly the Royals should be ashamed. First, I have a hard time remembering when White was overly critical of the team. Second, I WANT my color analyst to be negative when it is warranted. You know, I believe the Royals have smart fans. Sure, reading the comments on their Facebook page after a trade sometimes makes me wonder about that, but the fans I know personally and/or interact with on Twitter are not dumb. We know if the team is not playing well, and simply hiring a broadcaster to tell us otherwise is not going to work. It annoys me that the Royals apparently don't think we're smart enough to see through that. Of course, they've had Ryan Lefebvre around for years trying to convince us that Tony Pena Jr. and Yuniesky Betancourt were major league shortstops, so perhaps I should be used to it by now. It doesn't mean I have to like it, though.

Honestly, I don't believe Frank White is a great broadcaster. Obviously, he knows the game. I always wished he would be a little more open to the new stats that are out there, but I'm certainly not surprised that a former player who worked for the Royals wouldn't be very open to sabermetrics. But he was hardly the worst analyst out there.

Beyond that, though, he's Frank White. That name means something in Kansas City. He's from here, he literally helped build Kauffman Stadium, and he was a key part of the glory years. And now the Royals have essentially chased him away. Is there no one at 1 Royal Way who could not see that this move would enrage the vast majority of the fanbase? If I didn't know better, I'd say the Royals were TRYING to antagonize their fans.

The FanFest cancellation was based on the flimsiest of excuses: we can't handle that and the All-Star Game preparations, too. So far, the Royals haven't even bothered giving their side of the story on Frank White. They might not ever do that (which might be their best PR move--anything they say is likely to anger people even more).

Frankly, I expect this kind of PR idiocy from the Chiefs, because they seem to believe they are still the franchise they were in the 1990s, making the playoffs every year and filling Arrowhead. That arrogance can lead to lots of dumb decisions. But the Royals, who have no playoff appearances in 26 long years, and who have even sniffed contention maybe five times in that stretch, should be doing whatever they can to keep their fans happy. And lately, it seems like they have forgotten that.

Trading Soria

Should the Royals trade Joakim Soria?

It's a question I've actually been pondering for a while. At the end of the 2011 season, I expected Soria to be in the Royals' bullpen come Opening Day 2012. I would have been shocked, frankly, if he were even mentioned as a trade possibility.

That was before Jonathan Papelbon signed with the Phillies for 4 years and $50 million. And then Joe Nathan, one day after turning 37, signed with the Rangers for 2 years and $14.5 million. Suddenly the market for proven closers looks ridiculous. With limited free-agent options remaining, some teams might be very interested in Soria.

The particulars of Soria's contract ($6 million in 2012, club options for 2013 and 2014 at $8 million and $8.75 million, respectively) make him affordable for most teams, and the buyouts on those club options ($750,000 for each option) make him a lower risk. And yes, he struggled last year, but if he has indeed shelved the cutter he was experimenting with, he could easily get back to his All-Star form.

Don't get me wrong, I love Joakim Soria. There's no one I'd rather have on the mound as the Royals try to clinch the division next year (why not dream a little?). But closers can be found easily, a lot easier than a top starting pitcher or a power-hitting corner outfielder. Heck, look at the Royals' history: their best closer ever (Dan Quisenberry) wasn't even drafted. Their second-best closer (Jeff Montgomery) was stolen in a trade with the Reds. And Soria was a Rule 5 draft pick. Almost any failed starting pitcher can be a decent closer. And with the group of young pitchers the Royals had in the bullpen last year, they have options if they move Soria.

The first option would probably be Greg Holland, who was really the Royals' most effective reliever last year. I could easily see him as an effective closer. Also, the Royals added another option today by signing Jonathan Broxton. The 27-year-old had success as a reliever for the Dodgers for six seasons before an injury curtailed his 2011 season. The Royals say they will use him as a setup man for Soria, but he could certainly slide into the closer role if Soria were unavailable.

Given that, I think the Royals should certainly explore trading Soria. They shouldn't trade him just to trade him, but they should definitely listen to any offers. And they shouldn't be afraid to try to fill their rotation needs by trading him.

I know there was a Twitter rumor today about trading Soria to Toronto for Colby Rasmus. It looks like that has been denied by Dayton Moore as I write this, and I'm kind of glad. I'd still like to see Lorenzo Cain get a chance; I think he's better defensively than Rasmus and that is important in Kauffman Stadium.

But if the Royals can trade Soria for a good starting pitcher, they should definitely do it. I would miss him. But I think it would make the team better, and that's the most important consideration.

Stick With Me Baby, Stick With Me Anyhow

...things should start to get interestin' right about now

(From "Mississippi," Love And Theft)

The Royals are developing a habit of making surprising trades, the kind of trades you don't hear about until they have been completed. That is certainly true of today's trade of Melky Cabrera to San Francisco for left-handed starter Jonathan Sanchez and a minor-leaguer, left-hander Ryan Verdugo. There was certainly speculation about the Royals and Sanchez, but I didn't think any deal would happen this soon, or that it would involve Cabrera.

The more I think about this trade, the better I feel about it. Cabrera was certainly a vital part of the Royals' offense last season, but I think the Royals have upgraded their rotation here, and received a potentially useful bullpen arm for the future. Meanwhile, this apparently means Lorenzo Cain will finally get his chance in Kansas City, which should upgrade the defense.

I think the Royals did a great job of selling high on Cabrera. Melky's 121 OPS+ in 2011 was by far his career high. He did turn 27 during the 2011 season, so it is possible he could have several more good years. On the other hand, if you just looked at his career numbers without knowing his age, you would certainly notice that his 2011 season was unusual. I would have expected a couple more nice years from Cabrera, but probably not as good as he was this year.

Meanwhile, Sanchez will turn 29 in less than two weeks. He has been in the majors for six seasons and was a member of the Giants' rotation when they won the World Series in 2010. Coincidentally, 2010 was his best season, although he was decent in 2009. The problem with Sanchez has always been control; for his career, he averages 4.8 walks per 9 innings pitched. For comparison's sake, Danny Duffy averaged 4.4 walks per 9 IP in 2011, and he was by far the wildest starter on the team. The good news about Sanchez is that he gets lots of strikeouts: he averages 9.4 per 9 IP for his career. So the strikeout to walk ratio is almost 2:1, which is pretty good.

In my mind, any loss the Royals suffer on offense should be offset by Cain's superior defense, unless Cain is just a total disaster at the plate. Meanwhile, Sanchez should slide nicely into the 2 or 3 spot of the Royals' rotation, depending on other moves before Opening Day. He is almost certainly an upgrade over Jeff Francis, and probably over Bruce Chen (I do fear this is the end of Chen's time as a Royal; re-signing him would give the Royals three lefties with Mike Montgomery also knocking on the door).

The best part to me is that the Royals were able to upgrade their rotation and defense without parting with any prospects. So they still have the ability to make a major trade for pitching if they so choose. On the downside, Sanchez can be a free agent after the 2012 season, so it is possible he will be a Royal for only one year. But overall, I like this deal and I like the Royals' aggressiveness in making it.

Dave Eiland, Difference Maker?

I think we all understand this offseason is a crossroads of sorts for the Royals. The right personnel moves can augment the young talent on the roster and put them in position to contend in 2012, while the wrong moves could potentially make us all wait a couple more years.

So the first big move the team made was adding Dave Eiland as pitching coach, replacing the fired Bob McClure.

I liked McClure, but it is amazing to me he lasted as long as he did as the Royals' pitching coach. Six years with one team is a long tenure for any coach, especially a team that lost as often as the Royals did in that time. When you consider that McClure survived not one, but two managerial changes, it's even more surprising. But I suspect the message had gotten stale. The Royals have led the AL in walks allowed two of the past three years. Changing that will be Eiland's biggest challenge.

So, what is Eiland's background? Drafted by the Yankees in the 7th round of the 1987 draft, he made his major league debut the next season at the age of 22. I suppose that could be a useful experience when the Royals' promising young pitchers start reaching the majors.

After bouncing between the majors and the Yankees' farm system for four seasons, Eiland moved on to San Diego, back to the Yankees, and finally to expansion-era Tampa Bay before finishing up his career in 2002. Fashioning a major-league career out of what he told the Kansas City Star was "a little bit south of mediocre" stuff, Eiland had to learn how to prepare and be a pitcher, not just a thrower.

Eiland then began his coaching career in the Yankees' minor leagues, finally becoming the major-league pitching coach in 2008. He held that job through the 2010 season before the Yankees fired him. Eiland spent the 2011 season in the Tampa Bay front office.

The 2007 Yankees had an ERA+ of 101, meaning they were slightly above league-average. They improved to a 104 in 2008 and 108 in 2009 before a slight dropoff to 106 in 2010. Also, the Yankees' walk and strikeout rates did improve over 2007 during Eiland's tenure:

2007: 3.6 BB/9, 6.3 K/9, 1.75 K/BB

2008: 3.1 BB/9, 7.1 K/9, 2.33 K/BB

2009: 3.6 BB/9, 7.8 K/9, 2.20 K/BB

2010: 3.4 BB/9, 7.2 K/9, 2.14 K/BB

Now the downside: the Yanks' 2011 numbers were better in all three of those categories than in 2010 (3.1 BB/9, 7.5 K/9, 2.41 K/BB). But if Eiland can help the Royals improve their 2011 numbers (3.5 BB/9, 6.7 K/9, 1.94 K/BB) at the same rate, the Royals could certainly contend in 2012.

Of course, the thing Eiland can't control is what he is given to work with. There is a big difference between coaching CC Sabathia and, say, Danny Duffy. It will be up to Dayton Moore and the farm system to give Eiland talent to work with.

In my opinion, Eiland's most important task will be working with Luke Hochevar. We saw a much-improved Hochevar in the second half of the season, but let's be honest: Hochevar has shown flashes of brilliance before. It's unlikely he will ever be an ace, but if he can be an above-average starter, a bona fide number 2 starter, he will be a key piece of the Royals' rotation.

Other big projects for Eiland: getting Aaron Crow back on track and getting Tim Collins and Danny Duffy to improve their control. I have my doubts about Crow as a starter, although there is certainly no harm in giving him a shot to make the rotation in spring training. But even if he returns to a relief role, the Royals need him to be first-half Aaron Crow. Collins could be a valuable 7th-inning guy, maybe even a setup guy in a pinch, but he averaged 6.4 walks per 9 innings pitched in 2011. You just can't let a guy that wild pitch in the late innings. I think Duffy can be a middle of the rotation guy, but he too needs better control--100 pitches in 5 innings isn't going to cut it.

And The Corner Sign Says It's Closing Time

...so I'll bid farewell and be down the road

(From "Restless Farewell," The Times They Are A-Changin')

With the curtain pulled down on the Royals' 2011 campaign, it's time to look back at the last six months and also look ahead a bit to 2012.

Like many of you, I wanted the season to go on a while longer. We are all used to looking forward to the end of the season sometime around August 1, if not sooner, but this year was a little different. For me, the interesting part of the season really began on August 10, when the Royals called up Salvador Perez, completing the lineup they would basically use for the rest of the year and the lineup that will likely take the field on Opening Day 2012:

Salvador Perez C

Eric Hosmer 1B

Johnny Giavotella 2B

Alcides Escobar SS

Mike Moustakas 3B

Alex Gordon LF

Melky Cabrera CF

Jeff Francoeur RF

Billy Butler DH

That is probably the most solid everday lineup the Royals have run out there since...I don't know, 2003? Heck, I'd take the catcher and most of that infield over the 2003 team. Anyway, it's been a while since we've seen a lineup where it's enjoyable to watch at least 7 or 8 of the guys hit (I love Escobar's defense of course, but when he's struggling at the plate, it's especially difficult to watch. However, he's not here for his bat--we just have to hope that he'll at least throw in an empty .250 batting average in the future).

But for all the excitement for 2012 in the Royals' fanbase, that lineup only went 22-24 to close out the season. I think there certainly is reason to be excited, but I wouldn't expect a playoff appearance in 2012 unless several things go right. Yes, the Royals played well in September (15-10). They were 18-8 in September 2008, and what did that get us in 2009? The 2012 Royals will almost certainly be better than the 2009 version, but I don't know that they will be as good as we are hoping.

On the bright side, in those 46 games the Royals outscored their opponents 225-207. Over a full season, that would equate to an 87-75 record. But that was fueled in large part by a .297 team batting average in those 46 games. I don't think that's sustainable for six months. The .792 OPS they put up might be sustainable, but the team will need to take more walks to keep that number high. And this is still the Royals--they tied for 11th in the league in walks this season.

I'm sorry if this comes across as pessimistic. Believe me, I'm as excited as anyone to see these guys continue to grow and develop next year. I just don't want to start thinking playoffs quite yet, when there is still so much improvement that needs to take place.

For the Royals to truly contend next year, the first thing that needs to happen is an upgrade to the rotation. Part of the fun this year was seeing Danny Duffy develop, Felipe Paulino come off the scrap heap to strike out nearly a batter per inning, and Luke Hochevar to tease us with a solid second half. Those three will almost certainly all be back for 2012, and I wouldn't mind it if the Royals brought Bruce Chen back for another year of crafty leftiness. There's nothing wrong with this group, it just needs a guy who is clearly THE guy. Unfortunately, the free-agent market is weak this offseason, so the Royals' best bet is a trade. Who they should trade for is a separate post entirely, however.

Any contention in 2012 will also depend on the outfield of Gordon, Cabrera and Francoeur at least approaching the offensive numbers they put up this year. While none of them are at an age where you would expect a big decline in numbers, Gordon and Cabrera both had years quite a bit better than any previous season in their careers. Frenchy's 2011 was his best full season so far, but at least comparable to what he did in a half-season his rookie year and again in a half-season with the Mets. If you add up the trio's OPS+ numbers, you get a total of 380. The Royals will likely need something approaching that from the three of them next year, as the rest of the lineup is so young that there is no guarantee they will produce at the same level or even improve.

Right now, with a whole offseason of moves ahead of us, if I had to guess, I'd say the Royals will have a 2012 much like Cleveland's 2011: hang around 1st place for a while before tapering off and finishing around .500. Which would be a fun season and one I could live with at this point.

In the meantime, I have a few ideas for some offbeat offseason posts, and of course I will be around to opine on whatever moves the Royals make. Opening Day 2012 seems like a long ways away, but I think it will be here before we know it.